Ole Miss vs. LSU score prediction by an expert football model

SEC football begins this weekend under the lights of an important battle between ranked teams as No. 9 Ole Miss takes on No. 13 LSU in Death Valley in Week 7 of college football. Let’s look at the latest prediction for the game, which comes from an expert model that determines the winners.

LSU is 1-0 in SEC play after a win over South Carolina a few weeks ago, is on a four-game winning streak since its season-opening loss to USC and is ranked 7th nationally in passing behind quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, but 96th so far . in FBS in rushing performance.

Ole Miss is hoping to avoid falling below .500 in conference play after a surprising home loss to Kentucky two weeks ago, but the team bounced back with a emphatic win over the Gamecocks and ranks 2nd in the FBS in passing performance 10th in scoring 3rd in point defense overall.

What does the analysis say about this SEC matchup?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Ole Miss and LSU will fare in this Week 7 college football game.

So far the models are giving the road team a slight advantage this weekend.

SP+ predicts Ole Miss will defeat LSU by a projected score of 34-28 and win the game by an expected margin of 6.2 points.

The model gives the Rebels a 65 percent chance of winning the game outright.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a win ratio of 52.2.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook lines, Ole Miss is a 3.5-point favorite against LSU.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 62.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were -165 for Ole Miss and +140 for LSU.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

A slim majority of bettors expect the Rebels to take care of business on the move, according to the latest spread consensus recommendations.

About 52 percent of bets predict Ole Miss will beat LSU while covering the spread.

The remaining 48 percent of bets assume LSU will either win the game in an upset or keep the game within the close line.

Most other analytical models are also on the Rebels’ side against the Tigers this weekend.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Ole Miss is projected to win in 67.3 percent of the FPI computer’s recent simulations of the game.

That leaves LSU as the expected winner in the remaining 32.7 percent of sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Ole Miss is projected to be 6.8 points better than LSU on the same field with both teams’ current makeup.

More… Ole Miss vs. LSU Prediction: What the Analytics Say

Ole Miss is fourth among SEC teams with a 54.9 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.7 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives LSU an overall win projection of 7.5 games and a 14 percent chance of making the playoffs.

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 6:30 p.m. central
TV: ABC Network

More… Ole Miss vs. LSU Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

–

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: bookmark | Rankings | Selection