Kansas State vs. Colorado score prediction by an expert football model

A remarkable Big 12 conference matchup begins under the lights in Boulder this weekend as No. 18 Kansas State takes on Coach Prime and Colorado in Week 7 of college football on Saturday. Let’s look at the latest prediction for the game, which comes from an expert model that determines the winners.

Kansas State has put an idle weekend behind it and is 1-1 in conference play after a comfortable win over then-first place Oklahoma State. In this game you have to avoid falling below .500 in league games against an opponent on your own path.

Colorado moved to 4-1 and a solid 2-0 start in Big 12 play on a three-game winning streak behind a normally productive vertical that ranks 9th in the FBS but is still underperforming locally, where it ranks 127th out of 134 FBS schools with 81 yards per game.

What do the analyzes say about this weekend’s match?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Kansas State and Colorado will fare in this Week 7 college football game.

So far the models give the road team a slight advantage in this game.

SP+ predicts Kansas State will defeat Colorado by a projected score of 34-25 and win the game by an expected margin of 8.7 points.

The model gives the Wildcats an impressive 71 percent chance of an outright win over the Buffaloes.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a win ratio of 52.2.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas State is a 3.5-point favorite against Colorado.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 55.5 points.

And it set the moneyline odds for the overall win for Kansas State at -165 and for Colorado at +140.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

According to the latest spread consensus picks, a slight majority of bettors have more confidence in the Buffaloes in this game.

A large number of bets – 57 percent of them – assume that Colorado will either win in an upset or at least keep the game within reason.

The other 43 percent of bets predict Kansas State will win the game and cover the spread.

Other analytical models also suggest the Wildcats will beat the Buffaloes this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Kansas State is projected to win handily by a narrow margin of 52.3 percent in the FPI computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Colorado as the expected winner with the remaining 47.7 percent of Sims.

However, it is predicted to be a very close game, as Kansas State is expected to be 0.9 points better than Colorado with the current makeup of both teams on the same field, according to the model’s latest projection.

Kansas State ranks third among Big 12 teams with a 15.2 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.5 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Colorado a win projection of 8.1 games overall and the team is fourth in the conference with a 12.4 percent chance of making the 12-team playoffs.

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 9:15 p.m. CT | 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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