“Nostradamus” on the US election reveals potential future presidents

This election isn’t over yet, but some are already speculating about who could occupy the White House in 2028 and beyond.

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, known by many as the “Nostradamus” of US elections for his impressive track record of predicting the outcome, has revealed who he thinks the future presidential candidates could be after former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Well, obviously on the Republican side [Ohio Sen.] JD Vance wants to be the future of the party. “He’ll obviously be challenged by Nikki Haley again,” Lichtman said in response to a question during one of his regular YouTube livestreams.

Vance is Trump’s vice presidential running mate in the 2024 election, effectively the Republican leader’s heir apparent and the least experienced vice presidential nominee in nearly 90 years. Former South Carolina governor and U.N. Ambassador Haley unsuccessfully ran for the Republican nomination against Trump this year, along with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Lichtman called him a “potential candidate” for the future.

“Of course on the democratic side [Minnesota Gov.] “Tim Walz will be a contender,” the historian continued.

Walz was plucked from relative political obscurity after Harris named him her running mate in August.

The professor said he has also been promoting New Jersey Senator Corey Booker “for some time.”

Lichtman added that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, seen by many as a contender to succeed President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket this year and as a potential vice presidential candidate to replace Harris, was “another very attractive figure among the ranks.” Democrats”.

But he warned that candidates could “come out of nowhere.”

“Especially with Democrats, you never know,” Lichtman told viewers.

“Nobody had ever heard of Barack Obama until he gave his convention speech in 2004. Nobody has ever heard of Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton,” he said.

Newsweek Lichtman asked for comment via email outside of regular work hours.

Lichtman has officially called the 2024 election for Harris based on his forecasting system.

His model – “The Keys to the White House” – is based on 13 keys that assess the standing of the incumbent party based on a variety of factors, including the economy, foreign and domestic policy, including social unrest, major scandals, etc., and the presence of a major third-party candidate.

If six or more of the 13 keys – all true/false statements – are false, the incumbent party is likely to lose the election. If five or fewer are wrong, a win is expected.

The 13 keys, as outlined by the historian in a 2012 article Social pedagogy magazine, these are:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No main competition: There is no serious competition for the incumbent party’s nomination.
3. Incumbent seeks re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the incumbent president.
4. No third party: There is no significant campaign by third parties or independent parties.
5. Strong Short-Term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong Long-Term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the average growth during the previous two terms.
7. Important policy change: The incumbent government is bringing about major changes in national politics.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent government has been spared from major scandals.
10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent government suffers no major failures in foreign or military affairs.
11. Significant foreign or military success: The incumbent government achieves great success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic Challenger: The challenging party candidate is neither charismatic nor a national hero.

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