Brinson’s NFL picks for Week 6, best bets: Patriots’ trial with Drake Maye feels flawed, London calls

What are the Patriots doing? Drake Maye, drafted No. 3 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, will start for them against Houston this weekend. Start by Drake Maye: good! Start Drake Maye now: questionable!

Let’s be clear about this move: There’s nothing wrong with Maye being in the starting lineup. The Patriots selected the former North Carolina star with a high probability. Playing him is smart, and the plan could work for New England. We’re talking about a highly recruited quarterback who was productive at the college level and went top-five overall last year. If he’s the guy, he’s the guy.

But that Proceedings is quite worrying.

New England wanted to keep Maye on the bench as long as possible so as not to give him up to the Wolves. But Maye’s flashy preseason performance has people excited, and Jacoby Brissett’s play so far in the regular season has done the opposite. The win against the Bengals in Week 1 kept the fans — and possibly the owners — at bay for a while. But New England has lost four straight games since then and has failed to get above 20 points, save for its Week 2 overtime loss to Seattle, where it scored exactly 20 points.

The season feels lost (it always has been, if we’re being honest), so the first-year coaching staff pulls the ripcord and goes after the rookie quarterback. The problem is that while Maye’s athleticism can increase the offense’s play-to-play and drive-to-drive advantage, he can’t change what’s happening around him.

The offensive line looked questionable early in the season, and now starting center David Andrews is out and placed on injured reserve. Rhamondre Stevenson received a contract extension before the season, but could be on the bench because of too many fumbles. The best receiving options for Maye are freshmen Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker.

Letting them all grow together is a good thing, but if this was the move it should have happened early in the season. The panic that Maye is causing in five weeks is absolutely not the right move from a long-term perspective. Making matters worse is the fact that Maye is facing the Texans early in his career.

According to Next Gen Stats, Houston is in the top five in the league when it comes to yards per play allowed on defense, and DeMeco Ryans’ team ranks first overall in pressure rate at a whopping 42% and is loud Next Gen Stats one of the top three units in terms of target separation rate. In other words, pass rushers will be flying in Maye’s face and his receivers won’t have much wiggle room.

There is no easy game in the NFL. But the Patriots appeared to have randomly picked a difficult spot for Mayes’ debut. It’s a pretty strange choice for a franchise looking to ease its rookie with a bridge quarterback plan.

Best bets of week 6

Two teams set off for London with a significant sum at stake. And while the Jaguars’ defense against a suddenly hot Caleb Williams isn’t attractive for a low-scoring game, I think the combination of Chicago’s defensive performance – it looks like a top-five unit in the league right now – and both a combination of both. Due to the game’s orientation, the offenses here are classified as possibly conservative. Due to the fast travel process and the slow surface at Tottenham Stadium we get a sleepy seat. Last year’s duel between the Jags and Bills ended 11-7 in the fourth quarter before a late scoring drive. And last week we saw just 40 points from the Jets and Vikings on the same field, including a long pick-six from Minnesota. I assume that this total value will also trend slightly downwards before the kick.

Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has an A grade pick in this matchup. Check it out here.

Arizona has been a fun team this year and their pace so far in terms of scoring has been impressive. Kyler Murray didn’t do much after a 50-yard rusher against San Francisco, but I would expect him to be a bit more productive in this matchup, especially with Trey McBride being a fully functional target eater. The Packers have looked strong on offense all season and should be capable of some explosive plays in this matchup with Jordan Love back at full health. Jayden Reed is an absolute monster and Dontayvion Wicks can’t play any worse! Big points are coming.

I think there’s a really good chance for a lot of goals in Sunday’s great Commanders-Ravens matchup (on CBS!). And if there are a lot of goals, we will get a lot of pass attempts on both sides. This should also include Flowers getting heavily involved. Flowers has three games with more than 10 targets this year, including 21 in the last two weeks. Lamar Jackson won’t be afraid to run, but Todd Monken will make plenty of passing plays against a questionable secondary. Flowers should be the focus.

That’s an incredibly low amount, but I don’t think it’s all that important. Both teams know how important this game is and we’re going to approach this fight Floyd Mayweather style, with Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton testing each other out in the first few rounds. Both teams will try to do their best to get the ball out. Harbaugh doesn’t really have the ammunition to save the field, especially against a surprisingly formidable Denver defense and a broken offensive line. Payton has shown he’s willing to stay conservative with Bo Nix, and I’d expect more of the same on Sunday. “No touchdowns scored” could be the favorite for “first touchdown scorer.”

London have been on fire in recent weeks, with Kirk Cousins ​​scoring 34 goals in the last three games. He’s reached the end zone three times in the last four games for Atlanta and now gets to play against one of the worst defenses in football, with the Falcons coming off a monstrous offensive performance and having to take a 10-day mini-break. London’s price is plus money thanks to the high cost of Bijan Robinson (-185), but I actually think it’s a decent value considering how easy it is to split up the Panthers’ defense via the pass. We may see Zac Robinson trying to play conservatively, but if the Panthers stack the box to slow the run at all, it will give London a really good chance of scoring.