Ohio State vs. Oregon 2024 prediction: Who will win and why?

This weekend brings us a new Big Ten matchup as No. 2 Ohio State takes on No. 3 Oregon on Saturday night in Week 7 of college football. Here’s what to look out for with our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State and Oregon are both 5-0 overall this season and 2-0 in Big Ten play: The Buckeyes survived a tough early defense from Iowa last week to eventually pull away and sit 4th in offensive rating and Ranked 1st nationally in defense.

After outscoring its first two opponents by a combined 13 points, Oregon bounced back in conference play and defeated its next three opponents by an average of 26 points.

What can we expect when the Buckeyes and Ducks meet in this Big Ten matchup?

Here’s what to look for when Ohio State meets Oregon in this Week 7 college football matchup with our updated prediction for the game.

1. In the trenches. Although Oregon has returned to its offensive line, injuries and rotation changes have caused the unit to be less reliable than expected, particularly in pass protection. They’ve already allowed seven sacks after allowing five last year, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel faced pressure on nearly a quarter of his dropbacks.

Ohio State plays physical football on its defensive line, led by players like Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton, a rotation that collectively leads the nation in overall pressure rate and allows the fewest explosive runs of any team in the country.

2. Ground and Pound. Since the Boise State game when Ashton Jeanty rushed them, the Ducks have improved their run defense, allowing no back to gain more than 57 yards on the ground, and their last three opponents have combined to average less than 80 yards rushing achieved.

Ohio State has been strong against the rush so far, ranking 5th nationally with an average of 6.24 yards per carry between Quinshon Judkins (5 TDs) and TreVeyon Henderson (4 TDs), who combine for an 8 YPC average, and the Buckeyes Ranks 6th in FBS with 16 rushing touchdowns.

3. Go deeper. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel has proven to be remarkably efficient overall this season, completing 78 percent of his passes. Although he has struggled against better teams in his career, going 2-9 against ranked opponents, he has an elite group of receivers to work with.

It will be by far the toughest rotation Ohio State’s secondary has faced this season, presenting a varied challenge both from Tez Johnson’s slot and on both perimeters, with Evan Stewart and Traeshon Holden manning the edges test.

And the Buckeyes’ secondary was vulnerable on third down when the ball was in the air, allowing opponents to complete nearly 67 percent of their passes in that situation.

Most analytical models are on the Buckeyes’ side in this road matchup.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Ohio State is projected to win handily in a majority of 64.2 percent of recent computer simulations of the game.

That leaves Oregon as the expected winner with Sims’ remaining 35.8 percent.

According to the model’s latest projection, Ohio State is projected to be 5.3 points better than Oregon with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

More… Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: What the analyzes say

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Ohio State is a 3.5-point favorite against Oregon.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 54.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -152 for Ohio State and +126 for Oregon.

A slim majority of bettors expect Oregon to make this a play, according to the latest spread consensus recommendations.

52 percent of bets predict the Ducks will either beat the Buckeyes in an upset or keep the game within close range.

The other 48 percent of bets assume Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread.

Ohio State has to play not only Oregon but also Autzen Stadium, the raucous home stadium where the Ducks have gone 34-1 since 2018, and that advantage shouldn’t be overlooked.

To make the most of this noise and take the visitors out of the game, Oregon wants to have a lot of speed on offense in the early stages, which means Gabriel has to make a lot of quick passes from mid-range to build momentum, compensate for possible defensive problems and Ohio outmaneuver State’s excellent front-seven pressure.

That should lead to an early lead for the Ducks, which they can hold with good run defense that will stop the Buckeyes’ attempt to run the ball early in the game.

However, the Ducks’ relative lack of offensive consistency becomes more apparent given the Buckeyes’ front, which will give the secondary more room to thrive against Oregon’s battery of receivers.

And pave the way for Ohio State’s talent threats — players like Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and the Judkins/Henderson duo — to get the job done late in the game.

College football headquarters chooses…

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: NBC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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