Penn State vs. USC Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

A revamped Big Ten football matchup begins this weekend at the Coliseum as USC returns home to host No. 4 Penn State in Week 7 of college football on Saturday. Here’s what to look out for in the game, along with our updated prediction.

USC dropped out of the polls after a road loss to Minnesota that exposed some pressing issues in the line of scrimmage and left the Men of Troy to a 1-2 mark in Big Ten play, which leaves a lot to be desired as a head coach leaves Lincoln Riley still looking for a big win in his term.

Penn State has moved up to No. 4 in the AP rankings after beating UCLA last week, combined with a few more significant losses to top-ranked teams, and is averaging over 217 rushing yards per game while ranking in the FBS 8th place and only allows 11 points from opponents.

What can we expect from the Trojans vs. LA Nittany Lions matchup?

Here’s what to look for as USC and Penn State meet in this Big Ten matchup, along with our updated prediction for the game.

1. On the line. Penn State has a front-seven rotation that will look to get physical and dominate from the start, and that could have an advantage. USC allowed 3 tackles for a loss and 1 sack last week despite the pressure on its quarterback. Abdul Carter is Penn State’s top threat with 3 sacks and 8 TFLs this season.

As a team, the Nittany Lions rank 2nd in the country in yards allowed, 1st in stuffing rate, and 6th in the country in overall success rate, allowing just 4 yards per game.

2. Become physically active. USC’s defense is an improved product compared to last season – how could it not be? — but it’s still very average in most phases and has noticeable weaknesses in other phases, particularly on offense, where it ranks 17th among 18 Big Ten teams in overall rushing defense this year .

Michigan and Minnesota have both left a blueprint for how to successfully compete against the Trojans’ top seven, and Penn State’s excellent duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen will solve the problems in this lineup, which is in the EPA pro Onslaught is ranked 93rd and 89th, just revealing more in terms of rate.

The big difference? Penn State can throw the ball much better than the other teams. Drew Allar’s improved vertical play will force the USC defense to spread things out a bit and create more room for the run closer to the line to hit through consistent mid-range gainers.

3. Air out. There’s no secret to USC’s offensive game plan, as Riley will rely on Moss and a group of reliable receivers to look downfield early and often. Moss has enough mobility to buy time when his protection fails, and he leads an offense that ranks 15th in the FBS in success rate.

But he could use a little more production from his targets, particularly sophomore Zachariah Branch, who has yet to really catch on this season with just three grabs of more than 20 yards, and Woody Marks, who has more than 100 yards in the back has run 3 of 5 games, but is also a capable receiver out of the backfield who can gain yards through traffic after the catch.

While the Nittany Lions are projected to win by most analytical models, one simulation model stands out by picking the Trojans in a surprise situation.

This is the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

USC actually has the edge in most FPI simulations and is projected to win the game in 51.7 percent of the computer’s recent predictions.

That leaves Penn State as the expected winner in the remaining 48.3 percent of sims.

But it will be a very close game as USC is projected to be just 0.6 points better than Penn State on the same field, according to the model’s latest projection.

More… Penn State vs. USC Prediction: What the Analytics Say

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Penn State is a 4.5-point favorite against USC.

FanDuel gives the total score for the game at 50.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -200 for Penn State and +170 for USC.

According to the latest spread consensus tips, most bets have more confidence in the Trojans’ home team in this matchup.

Around 53 percent of bettors expect USC to either win in an upset or keep the game within reason.

The other 47 percent of bets assume Penn State will win the game and cover the spread.

On paper, the Nittany Lions are built to win this game. They have the stronger defensive line and the more productive rushing attack, but their winning margins so far are concerning, and it’s fair to question whether this team has been properly tested yet.

It beat Bowling Green by 7, led Illinois by a single score until the end of the game, and the offense looked listless against UCLA, managing just 2.8 yards per carry.

Penn State’s defense has a relative weakness at the linebacker position and Moss should be able to maneuver his receivers from mid-range to midfield with a series of passes that will keep the chains moving and the game open for most of the game Can end the day.

But these disadvantages in both offensive lines will become apparent as the game progresses, and the team that can run the ball and stop the run should come out on top.

College football headquarters chooses…

–

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: bookmark | Rankings | Selection