Five unusual indicators that could predict the winner of the presidential election

Who will win: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Election Day is less than 30 days away and pollsters and pundits are racing to predict the outcome of a race that looks set to be very close. From polls to betting markets to Allan Lichtman’s famous “Keys” model, there seems to be no end to the different prediction methods.

But some are less conventional than others. What if you used candidate heights, astrology, or cookie sales to predict election outcomes? As November 5th approaches, Newsweek examined five unusual indicators that could predict who will win the White House.

The S&P 500 Index

According to broker-dealer LPL Financial, the stock market is a surprising indicator of the election outcome. If the S&P 500 rises between August and November, the incumbent party will likely retain the White House. If the benchmark index instead suffers losses in the three months leading up to the election, it will suggest that the incumbent party will lose the presidency.

This was the case with Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932, John F. Kennedy in 1961 and Barack Obama in 2008, when Democrats took back the White House from Republicans and the S&P 500 fell in the final three months of the election. The same thing happened when Republicans won the White House in 1952, 2000 and 2016.

The stock market’s rise or fall in the three months leading up to Election Day has correctly predicted the outcome of 21 of the last 24 elections.

What does it look like for Harris and Trump?

The S&P 500 is currently up more than six percent since August 1, closing at 5,792.04 on Wednesday. If the market extends the gains made in August and September over the next four weeks, it would be a sign of a victory for the vice president.

Size of the candidate

In 18 of the last 24 elections, the tallest candidate has won the election, giving the electoral process a “biggest person wins” logic. The tallest U.S. president was Abraham Lincoln, who reportedly measured 193 centimeters (6 feet, 4 inches). The shortest was James Madison, who was 163 centimeters tall.

The rule has become less reliable over the past two decades; George W. Bush was shorter than Al Gore and John Kerry, and Joe Biden is three inches shorter than Trump.

What does it look like for Harris and Trump?

If the rule goes into effect this year, the former president, who is reportedly 6 feet tall, will beat Harris, who is 5 feet 10 inches tall. If Harris bucks the trend, as Biden did before her, the Democratic nominee would be the shortest presidency since Madison by half an inch.

The Redskins Rule

The Redskins Rule is a spurious correlation between National Football League (NFL) game results and presidential election results that was first noticed by a sports data company executive before the 2000 election.

The rule states that whenever the Washington Redskins (now known as the Washington Commanders) “won their last home game before the presidential election, the incumbent party retained the White House, and whenever the Redskins lost their last home game before the election, “The nonpartisan won the White House,” Steve Hirdt of the Elias Sports Bureau said in a 2012 interview with ESPN.

The rule applied in all elections from 1940 to 2000, but in the Redskins’ final home game before the 2004 election, the team lost 28-14 to the Green Bay Packers and President George W. Bush won re-election.

According to the ESPN interview, Hirdt revised the rule: “Redskins Rule 2.0 specifies that if the winner of the popular vote does not win the election, the effects of the Redskins game on the subsequent presidential election will be reversed.”

The “Redskins Rule 2.0” then correctly predicted the outcome of every election since 1940, except those in 2012 and 2016.

What does it look like for Harris and Trump?

The Washington Commanders’ final home game before the election will be October 27 against the Chicago Bears. The Commanders have won more games than the Bears so far this season, and Harris may be hoping that counts for something, while Trump could be crossing his fingers for victory.

Cookie sales

Busken Bakery in Ohio has correctly predicted almost every presidential election since 1984 through cookie sales. The Cincinnati bakery sells cookies with the faces of each presidential candidate, and the cookie that sells the most wins the election.

“In 1984, when Reagan and Mondale were presidential candidates, my father came up with the idea of ​​letting Cincinnatians vote by mouth. He brought the idea of ​​a cookie survey to life,” said Dan Busken of Busken Bakery Newsweek in an email.

“It was so much fun the first year that we kept doing it, and we couldn’t believe the accuracy every election cycle.”

The Cookie poll has proven accurate in nine out of 10 elections since it began, with 2020 being the only time the less popular Cookie’s candidate won.

“We see this as an opportunity to add a little levity to the elections. Elections appear to have become more hostile over the years and we have debated whether we should continue to conduct the cookie survey.”

“But we’ve always been the Cincinnati bakery known for good, clean fun. We don’t take sides, remain neutral and encourage our customers to fill the ballot box. We promise them that we will leave ‘not a crumb uncounted’.”

“Cookie sales seem to go up every election,” Busken explained. “We view this as a good old-fashioned straw poll with some extra calories.”

What does it look like for Harris and Trump?

The cookie survey then went viral New York Post shared the news that Trump is taking over, and the news was shared on X, formerly Twitter, by Elon Musk. On Wednesday, Busken Bakery held its “Doughmocracy for All” and counted 7,027 cookies for Harris and 20,312 cookies for Trump.

astrology

Connections between astrology and politics – data package on the Roman Empire. Former First Lady Nancy Reagan consulted an astrologer after her husband was assassinated in 1981.

Newsweek spoke to astrologer Nadiya Shah who said: “Astrology has its origins in predicting when a change of government might take place, for example when a new king would rise. Ancient societies often thought of a great celestial omen, like a solar eclipse,” a symbol that would signify a new leader who would “eclipse the past.”

Shah said she “noticed strong connections to the planet Uranus.” Even though it is a modern planet, as astrologers we use the same types of planetary connections and techniques, and this planet in particular can bring about dramatic changes that can occur when someone experiences a breakthrough, like making a big choice win.”

“Countries also have birth charts. Astrologers can also look at the key moments of activation of this horoscope to indicate a significant change of government or president,” Shah added.

Astrologers use the birth charts of presidential candidates to figure out when important events will occur and when they might assume political power.

What does it look like for Harris and Trump?

“Astrologers are always divided on who will win the presidency. “It can depend on the techniques we use and since there is no astrology without the astrologer, of course our own biases also come into play,” Shah said.

And who could win? “Considering that Jupiter is currently in Gemini, a sign that features heavily in both candidates’ charts, with Trump being a Gemini Sun born during an eclipse season, and Harris being a Gemini Ascendant – an important one sensitive point in the horoscope, If we connect a fate point called the North Node, the chances of who will win are approximately even at this point.

Do you have a story? Newsweek should cover? Do you have any questions about this story? contact [email protected].