Northwestern vs. Maryland Prediction: Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchup, Betting Trends and Stats

Maryland (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) has easily handled its two minor league opponents, Villanova and UConn, but is winless against Big Ten opponents. Michigan State outgained the Terps 484 to 339 total yards while the Spartans defense held UM to just 2.8 yards per carry. They also allowed Indiana 510 total yards and regularly shot themselves in the foot with missed throws, ranking 117th nationally with an average of 75 penalty yards per game. Northwestern (2-3, 0-2 in Big Ten) has wins over Miami-OH and Eastern Illinois.

Both Northwestern and Maryland are looking for decisive wins in Big Ten play, with the Wildcats losing their last two contests in convincing fashion to Washington and Indiana. While Northwestern’s defense is a respectable unit, ranking 34th in points per scoring opportunity and 39th in an explosive play rate of 5.3%, its offense ranks in the bottom 20 in every explosive metric and ranks 119th nationally averaging 15.5 PPG.

It’s hard to argue with the decision to abandon Nepo-hired OC Brian Ferentz in favor of former Western Michigan HC Tim Lester, as the Hawkeyes are averaging twice as many points (30.7) in four games in 2024 as they did in the last season (15.4). . In fact, Iowa has already exceeded the 30-point barrier three times this season, which is the sum total of 30-plus point performances from the last three years combined! HC Kirk Ferentz’s team is 3-1 and loses a 20-19 decision to arch-rival Iowa State thanks to some late-game heroics from QB Rocco Becht.

NBC Sports has all the latest information and analysis you need, including kick-off information, BetMGM odds, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our team of experts.

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Match details and how to watch Northwestern @ Maryland live

• Date: Friday, October 11, 2024
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Location: SECU Stadium
• City: College Park, MD
• TV/Streaming: FOX

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Northwestern @ Maryland Game Odds – Week 7

The latest odds from Wednesday evening:

• Money line: Maryland (-450), Northwest (+350)
• Spread: Maryland -11 (-110)
• Over/Under: 45.5 points

*Odds courtesy of BetMGM

The spread started at UM -10 and has remained stable while the current market reflects lines of 9.5 to 10.5 as this game continues to hover around the key number 10. Maryland opened as the favorite at -395 ML and stayed at the same -360-400 ballpark. The overall value remains stable in the range of 44.5 to 45.5.

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast As hosts, Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp, actionable insights, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their bets.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks Maryland is doing well at home:
“Since Maryland has exceeded the 45.5 point total in 4 of 5 games this season and Northwestern has eliminated the mark in 2 of 3 games against Power Four opponents, I am advocating for a game over 45.5 points.”

From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: National Championship

Line movement (last week to now)

• Ohio State +375 to +300
• Texas +500 to +450
• Georgia +650 to +500

Highest ticket percentage

• Ohio State 15.4%
• Texas 11.9%
• Georgia 11.5%

Highest grip %

• Georgia 17.6%
• Ohio State 17.3%
• Texas 11.6%

Largest Liabilities

• Tennessee
• Ohio State
• Colorado

Northwestern @ Maryland quarterback matchup

• Maryland: QB Billy Edwards beat out NC State transfer MJ Morris for the starting job in fall camp and hasn’t looked back since, completing 72.3% of his throws for 8.2 yards per attempt and a TD/INT ratio of 11-2. He directs Maryland’s offense with remarkable efficiency, getting the ball out in 2.28 seconds, which is the second-fastest time-to-throw average in the Power Four (Malik Murphy #1 @ 2.17 seconds). The Terps have a 46.4% success rate (36th in FBS) while ranking 32nd in EPA/Dropback. However, UM ranks 99th in completions of 20 yards or more and 111th in pass explosiveness, so there is room for significant improvement in that department. QB Edwards has done well so far and appears to be a multi-year starter for HC Mike Locksley.
• Northwest: Dual-threat quarterback Mike Wright, Vanderbilt-to-Mississippi State-to-Northwestern transfer, was named an Opening Day starter before completing 57% of his passes with an 0-1 ratio in two games before HC David Braun turned to current starter Jack Lausch. QB Lausch completed 53% of his passes but was pressured on 45 of his 96 dropbacks and controls a lagging Wildcats passing offense that ranks 125th in explosiveness and 115th in success rate. On the bright side, Lausch led NU to a season-high 24 points against Indiana last week, throwing for 243 yards on a 2-0 record and 34 rushing yards in the 41-24 loss.

Trends and current statistics

• Maryland WR Tai Felton leads all Big Ten receivers with 642 receiving yards and 9.2 receiving yards per game. WR Kaden Prather has gained more than 20 yards on just 2 of 26 receptions this season, the seventh-lowest big-play rate among FBS wideouts.
• Maryland allows 269 passing yards per game, the fifth-most total passing yards allowed in the Power Four. Despite the leaky pass defense, UM ranks 13th nationally with an interception rate of 4.6%.
• Northwestern is 1-4 ATS and 3-2 under. Offensively, they rank 112th in EPA/Rush and 120th in EPA/Dropback.
• Northwestern’s defense is a credible unit, ranking 31st in SP+. Much of their effectiveness on D can be attributed to their ability to suppress big plays. They rank 20th in marginal explosiveness and 21st in yards per successful play allowed.

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