PFB Predictions: The team gets a repeat of the season prediction on Oklahoma State’s bye week

Everyone deserves a second chance, especially PFB employees.

We all had high expectations for the Cowboys in 2024. In fact, heading into the bye week, after just six weeks at 3-3, Oklahoma State already has more regular-season losses than any of us predicted in August. PFB won’t repeat all of our preseason predictions, but after a disappointing start, we’re taking a mulligan. So after looking at what OSU has left, here’s how we see the rest of the season for the Pokes.

at BYU (5-0)
at Baylor (2-4)
Arizona State (4-1)
at TCU (3-3)
Texas Tech (5-1)
at Colorado (4-1)

Most snaps at QB

Scott: Garret Rangel – I don’t think all of OSU’s offensive woes can be blamed on Alan Bowman. I think the blame lies much more with OSU’s inability to get the ball moving on the ground. Regardless of where this OSU offense (and the team as a whole) is at, I’m just not sure how the Pokes can continue to showcase their seventh-year quarterback. Most of the time, an elder statesman’s advantage is ball security, but that wasn’t the case with Bowman. He has thrown eight interceptions this season, which is the most in the Big 12. He has scored 27 touchdowns on 22 picks in his OSU career so far. In just one other game, he threw five more picks with the Cowboys than he did with Texas Tech. So I think it’s best for the Cowboys to look to the future at the position, and Rangel seems to be the guy OSU is most comfortable with outside of Bowman.

Gregory: Garret Rangel -It’s not based on any sources or inside information, but I believe Rangel will be OSU’s man when it takes on BYU again next week. And before you groan: Rangel hasn’t been given a fair chance to prove what he can do. If that happens and is handled correctly, it would be the first time Rangel could prepare with No. 1s who know he’s the right guy. No three-QB rotation, no waiting for injury status, no throwing in when you’re down against a good defense and the offense isn’t able to move the football. He also adds an additional run element that OSU desperately needs right now. Once the move is made, Rangel will do enough to ensure Gundy can lead the Cowboys the rest of the way.

Cox: Garret Rangel – I mean, if Rangel isn’t the guy when the Pokes get back together in Provo, not only will all seeming logic be abandoned, but OSU fans might actually rebel. The interceptions are one thing, the complete inability to move the ball is quite another. As Mike Gundy has said, OSU isn’t making any sweeping offensive changes midway through the year. So try someone else with different skills who could help you now and will (hopefully) help you in the future. Zane Flores is the only other guy, but the situation with him is unclear. Regardless of injury or not, OSU’s staff doesn’t seem to think he’s ready to take the reins. You have a long week of training ahead of you to redistribute your reps. Give Rangel a chance. A real recording. See what you have. It seems to be the only option.

Offensive MVP

Scott: De’Zhaun Stribling -It’s a shame the OSU offense is as bad as it is right now because De’Zhaun Stribling is having a year. He ranks fourth in the Big 12 with 556 receiving yards. With no running game to speak of and a quarterback who keeps getting the hook, I think this will be a popular choice.

Gregory: De’Zhaun Stribling -With Ollie Gordon unable to find a spot and a QB shuffle underway, it will have to be one of OSU’s receivers who emerges as the offensive MVP. Stribling leads the Cowboys with 556 receiving yards and is tied with Brennan Presley for most receiving TDs (four). And Stribling seems to be improving every week. So since there will be games where OSU tries to come from behind, expect some big plays from Stribling.

Cox: Brennan Presley – I’m just trying to change that here, although I think it can only help the Cowboys get the ball to Presley better, especially if he can keep defenders honest in the middle of the field. Even if there is a quarterback change, an experienced slot receiver can be a real security blanket. Of course, if OSU is able to open up a running back or two, I think Ollie Gordon could still be the guy, but he still has a lot of catching up to do.

Defensive MVP

Scott: Trey Rucker — At this point it has to be. Collin Oliver is injured. Nick Martin is injured. Trey Rucker ranks second nationally with 69 total tackles and has two interceptions.

Gregory: Trey Rucker – This is the easiest choice right now, especially with Collin Oliver and Nick Martin injured. Rucker already leads the team in tackles by a wide margin and could be the only player to earn All-Big 12 honors for OSU at the end of the season.

Cox: Rucker – I mean, I really want to buck the trend here, too, but it would be hard not to go with Rucker. As long as he stays healthy, it will be difficult for production to catch him.

Newcomer of the year

Scott: Josh Ford — It might actually end up being Isaia Glass, but offensive linemen don’t have easily digestible stats. Ford was something OSU fans could be excited about in a season that has been lacking excitement of late. He still has a lot of room to grow, but Ford has what it takes to be a really, really good tight end for the Pokes.

Gregory: Josh Ford — I’ll stick with my original prediction here. As a true freshman, Ford has only had one breakout game so far, but OSU is increasingly incorporating him into the game plan. Nothing has come of this yet, but there is even a package with Ford posing in the background. He could also serve as a security blanket for Rangel.

Cox: Da’Wain Lofton — This seems like a hot option, but I hate it when the graph shows unanimous decisions. Lofton made his debut against West Virginia and may have been the only bright spot for the Pokes. Three targets on three catches for 73 yards with 25 YAC. His shortest catch was 10 yards. It’s a very small sample size, but with the potential of my redshirting preseason newcomer Gavin Freeman – he was a non-medical scratch after four games – Lofton still has time to step in and make some big plays.

Regular season record

Scott: 7-5 – I’m not entirely sure where all these wins are coming from considering this team hasn’t looked good (some would say bad) the last few weeks, but I’m confident Mike Gundy will figure something out because he have a track record of doing this. Still, this would be an extremely disappointing result for a season that was so promising. The 2017 season was viewed as somewhat of a disappointment as it was the final season of the Mason Rudolph/James Washington regime. That team still finished 10-3. A 7-5 regular season finish for a team that essentially brought back its entire offense from a 10-4 squad is disgusting.

Gregory: 6-6 — Boy, that’s a lot different than my preseason 11-1 prediction. We’ll be learning a lot about the Cowboys against BYU to see if anything improves on the bye week like last year. But BYU in Provo should still be a loss. Three of OSU’s next four games are away from BPS, plus the trip to Boulder at the end. And Arizona State and Texas Tech are much better than expected. It’s honestly not a tough schedule, but when you play the way OSU did, it is. No matter what happens, Mike Gundy will find a way to keep this bowl streak alive.

Cox: 6-6 – I mean, damn. I looked around the back half of OSU’s schedule looking for easy wins, but from the evidence we have, there aren’t many of them. It was a crazy first half across the Big 12. BYU, Arizona State, Colorado and Texas Tech have suffered a combined three losses. I think OSU might steal one from the Sun Devils and get the better of TCU and Baylor. That’s a steady .500 and extends the bowl streak. And it could be generous. But I’ve been wrong before (see the “Predictions” post linked above).

Big 12 title contender

Scott: Kansas State vs. Iowa State – Farmageddon in Jerry World would be an elite way to kick off this new-look Big 12 era, so to speak. After watching K-State live and in person, I think the Wildcats are the best team in the conference (spoiler alert), and Iowa State has the best defense in the league, giving up just 10 points per in the first three games Game off. In fact, Iowa State has given up a total of 25 fewer points than any other conference team to this point. These teams play the final week of the regular season in Ames, and my current thinking is that they will travel south via I-35 and do it again in Arlington. But also keep an eye on BYU.

Gregory: Utah vs. Iowa State – That first place finish could be due to the Utah-BYU game, and fortunately for the Utes, they are at home. Iowa State also hosts Kansas State at home to end the regular season in a game that could be a play-in game for the Big 12 Championship.

Cox: Kansas State vs. BYU – Even though the Cowboys have blown any chance of getting to Arlington, there’s still a lot of football to be played and several teams will be calling each other names before the matter is resolved. I like what I saw from the Wildcats on both sides of the ball. The BYU game may have been an aberration and a chance for a rematch is still possible. The Cougars will have tough road games at Utah and Arizona State, but their defense appears to be pretty good over the long haul.

Big 12 winner

Scott: Kansas State – K-State became a good BYU team in Provo, but I’m not sure the final result is really indicative of where the two teams are currently. K-State had a 126-yard lead in total offense on the day, but BYU scored with a 30-yard fumble recovery and a 90-yard punt return. Overall, I think K-State’s running performance makes the Wildcats the best team in the conference and a narrow winner in the Big 12.

Gregory: Iowa State – Matt Campbell finally did it. Iowa State will be the only Big 12 team to make it to the first 12 College Football Playoff and not advance past its first game. Tough scenes for Big 12 enthusiasts and SEC haters.

Cox: Kansas State – Give the chip to the old guard. I like Kansas State because they are a tough team, with an offense that can give you fits and a defense that can stifle you. Seems like a fitting way to deal with serious early road damage.