New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Prediction: College Football Picks for Week 7

Conference USA remains in the midweek college football spotlight with another single game on Wednesday. This game features another big favorite as Jacksonville State welcomes New Mexico State to town for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN2.

This is only the second FBS season for the Gamecocks, who are 11-7 so far in the CFB’s top division. The Aggies’ two-year bowl series – their first since 1959-60 – is in serious jeopardy this year and they are unlikely to win it by about three touchdowns.

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New Mexico State Aggies at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-20.5, 59)

7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Jacksonville State QB Tyler Huff rushed for 1,073 yards through the air and another 445 yards on the ground. He is the team’s leading rusher with 7.1 yards per carry and has scored 10 total touchdowns. New Mexico State gained 1,319 total yards of offense on the year.

The Aggies have 11 total offensive touchdowns this season as they miss Diego Pavia badly, now at Vanderbilt and pulling off upsets over the No. 1 team in the country. The decline cannot be overstated as Santino Marucci, Parker Awad and Deuce Hogan combined for a 40.9% completion rate and a 4/6 TD/INT ratio. Aggies quarterbacks have also been sacked 15 times so far. Pavia was sacked a total of 24 times last season.

This hasn’t been a good pass-blocking line for NMSU, but they have a somewhat respectable 4.2 yards per carry, although Larenzo McMillan’s 84-yard run skews the data quite a bit. The Aggies won 23-16 against Southeast Missouri State to open the season and have gone 0-4 since then, although they gave Liberty a game back in Week 2 and probably should have beaten the Flames in the 30-24 loss.

There’s a big residual advantage here for the underdogs, as Jacksonville State played last Friday and beat Kennesaw State by 39 points. The Aggies have not played since September 28, when they lost the annual Rio Grande rivalry game to New Mexico 50-40. This game featured 43 points in the fourth quarter as both teams’ lack of depth became apparent. With the help of McMillan’s aforementioned 84-yard dash, the Aggies had 8.1 yards per carry and 285 yards on the ground.

The Gamecocks are below the national average in yards per carry allowed, but Louisville had 36 runs for 233 yards and Coastal Carolina had 57 runs for 294 yards. They’ve played much better against the run since then, and New Mexico State more closely mirrors Eastern Michigan, Southern Miss and Kennesaw State offensively than the two teams Jacksonville State lost to in Weeks 1 and 2.

Because of Huff, the Gamecocks averaged over seven yards per play outside of that Louisville game and had just 7.4 yards per play against Kennesaw State. The Aggies are definitely better than the Owls, but the question is by how much.

That’s a big number considering Jacksonville State only has a few days off. However, they are quite capable of covering it. The running game should carry the day as New Mexico State has given up over 5.7 yards per carry, ranking 127th nationally this week.

Pick: Jacksonville State -20.5