Hurricane Milton Arrival: Current Path Shows Landfall Time Update

According to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Milton is currently on track to make landfall in western Florida sometime Wednesday evening.

The storm, which was again upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane on Tuesday afternoon, is expected to be damaged Hit the Tampa Bay region head-on, bringing devastating storm surges and strong winds in some areas still reeling from Hurricane Helene, which hit the Big Bend region of Florida as a Category 4 on September 26th.

According to the NHC, as of 5 p.m. ET Tuesday, Milton was about 480 miles southwest of Tampa and was recording winds of up to 165 mph.

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The NHC has been tracking Milton’s path for several days and predicted over the weekend that the storm could make landfall as early as Wednesday afternoon. However, as the storm approached, that schedule was pushed back.

In an update at 5 a.m. ET Monday, the NHC predicted that Milton’s eye would be over central Florida around 2 a.m. Thursday, meaning it would make landfall near Tampa sometime Wednesday evening.

Later that same day, forecasters said in an update posted at 11 p.m. ET that Milton could arrive around 8 p.m. on Wednesday.

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On Tuesday afternoon, that schedule was pushed back again. NHC meteorologists now predict that Milton will make contact in the Tampa Bay area around 2 a.m. ET on Thursday. The eye of the storm will move over central Florida and reach its east coast by 2 p.m. Thursday.

“The forecast is that the center of Milton will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday, make landfall along the central west coast of Florida on Wednesday evening, and move across the Atlantic Ocean off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.” Read what the NHC said.

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The impact of Milton was felt much earlier than in the Sunshine State. The NHC forecasts that tropical storm-force winds will be felt along Florida’s west coast beginning at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Meteorologists also predict the storm surge could reach 10 to 15 feet around Tampa Bay. Storm surge could reach up to 10 feet in surrounding areas north and south of Milton’s immediate bath.

“Variations in intensity are likely as Milton moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the central west coast of Florida Wednesday night,” the NHC said in its latest update.

John Ferrick, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, said Newsweek via email Wednesday that forecasters “expect conditions along the west coast of Florida, including the Tampa Bay area, to worsen throughout Wednesday.”

“The worst life-threatening conditions along Florida’s west coast in terms of storm surge and damaging winds will likely occur Wednesday evening into the early hours of Thursday,” Ferrick added.

The storm is also expected to double in strength as it continues to approach western Florida over the next few days. National Weather Service meteorologist Christianne Pearce said earlier Newsweek that Milton will begin the transition “just before reaching the coast,” with the storm becoming slightly weaker but stronger.

“We expect Milton to increase in size as it heads toward Florida over the next 24 to 36 hours,” Ferrick also said via email. “While we expect some reduction in wind intensity, the wind field will likely be more widespread and impact most of the Florida Peninsula.”

Update 10/8/24, 6:28 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional comment from Ferrick.