Bulldogs bite on Thursday night?

On weekdays, CUSA dominates the Thursday night football schedule this week with two matchups in the national spotlight, including the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders traveling to Ruston to take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. After tough starts for both programs, which team will pick up their first conference win of the year?

Our Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech prediction includes the answers, latest betting odds and win probabilities for the Blue Raiders and Bulldogs for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.

Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech betting preview

All Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Tuesday, October 8, 2024.

• CFN FPM spread
  Louisiana Tech -1.5
• Spread
  Louisiana Tech -5.5
• Money line
  Louisiana Tech -218, Middle Tennessee +180
• Over/Under
  48 points
• Playtime
  8pm ET
• Location
  Joe Aillet Stadium | Ruston, LA
• Predicted weather at Kick
  53.6 degrees, clear, 5.6 mph wind
• Here’s how to watch
  CBS Sports Network

The ninth matchup between Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech comes at a crucial time for both programs, as both need a win to begin a tumultuous season. Although the Blue Raiders defeated their CUSA rival when the two teams collided last fall, the Bulldogs hold a head-to-head lead of 5-3. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has never won in Ruston in four tries – each time losing by multiple touchdowns.

MORE: Simulate the college football season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

The money line favors the Bulldogs in this game, and our Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech prediction agrees that Sonny Cumbie’s team can pull out the win here. However, the 5.5 point spread is a bit generous against the Bulldogs, as CFN’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM) gives the home team a 1.5 point lead. Therefore, Middle Tennessee should cover for the second game in a row. Louisiana Tech was not considered a favorite in the last two games.

Middle Tennessee Winning Probability

According to CFN FPM, Middle Tennessee has a 47.5 percent chance of winning this CUSA matchup. After opening the season with a win over Tennessee Tech, the Blue Raiders have run the gauntlet of difficult matchups against several Power Four powerhouses and CUSA leader Western Kentucky.

The matchup with Louisiana Tech is the first of two opportunities to get the season back on track. Here’s what Middle Tennessee’s remaining schedule looks like in terms of win probability:

• at Louisiana Tech: 47.5%
• vs. Kennesaw State: 70.3%
• at Jacksonville State: 35.9%
• at UTEP: 49.2%
• vs. Liberty: 17.4%
• vs. New Mexico State: 52.5%
• at FIU: 47.5%

If these winning percentages were accurate, Middle Tennessee would finish the season with a 3-9 record, failing to secure bowl eligibility for the second straight year. However, according to these projections, they have three close games (Louisiana Tech, UTEP and FIU) that could turn a disastrous campaign into something more respectable.

Louisiana Tech’s probability of winning

Meanwhile, the CFN FPM gives the Bulldogs a 52.5% chance of winning on Thursday night. It’s worth noting that FPM correctly predicted Louisiana Tech’s 1-3 start when oddsmakers had the team as favorites in their last two losses.

Here are Louisiana Tech’s remaining win probabilities for the rest of the season:

• vs. Middle Tennessee: 52.5%
• in the state of New Mexico: 47.5%
• vs. UTEP: 51.2%
• at Sam Houston: 31.2%
• vs. Jacksonville State: 36.4%
• in Western Kentucky: 21.9%
• vs. Arkansas: 12.2%
• vs. Kennesaw State: 74.6%

If these winning percentages were accurate, Louisiana Tech would finish the season with a 4-8 record. That would be the most wins for the program since 2020. However, with several close games, including three with less than a field goal, expected to separate them from their opponents, there is tremendous swing potential and significant pressure on head coach Cumbie.

Prediction for Middle Tennessee vs. Louisiana Tech

It was a dismal start to the season for both teams, with Middle Tennessee’s barbaric opening schedule ensuring that Derek Mason’s tenure got off to a rocky start. Meanwhile, a 1-3 record after four games has done little to ease the temperature beneath Cumbie’s base in Ruston. Therefore, this is a must for both teams.

Can Middle Tennessee pick up its first win ever in Ruston on Thursday night, or will the Bulldogs have too much bite for the Blue Raiders? Who has the upper hand and where will the decisive battles be fought?

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The story of the tape in this game could come down to the haves and have-nots. Louisiana Tech has a great defense and Middle Tennessee doesn’t have a great offense. It’s a simplistic view of a complex sport, but fundamentally the Blue Raiders don’t have the ability to put up points against the Bulldogs’ defense. They averaged just 16 points per game this fall, and despite facing outstanding opponents, they simply couldn’t score.

It’s not for lack of trying. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato leads all CUSA quarterbacks in pass attempts and passing yards per game. However, only 46.2% of their trips to the red zone this fall resulted in a touchdown, and the Blue Raiders’ five passing touchdowns rank 108th nationally. Meanwhile, the ground game is averaging just 2.75 yards per carry with five touchdowns.

Louisiana Tech’s offense isn’t much better. The Bulldogs have averaged just 18.8 points per game in 2024 while their rushing offense is the worst of any CUSA team. Jack Turner has actually shown more explosive passing plays than some of the conference’s more notable quarterbacks, but they only have one offensive playmaker with more than one touchdown (Jimmy Holiday, three scores) entering Week 7.

Therefore, expect whoever has the better defense to emerge victorious in a low-scoring game. Middle Tennessee has given up 39 points per game this season, the most passing touchdowns in CUSA (13), 9.1 yards per pass attempt and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.6% of their passes. Louisiana Tech boasts the best rush defense and second-best pass defense in CUSA while ranking 25th nationally for total defense. Advantage Bulldogs.

Forecast: Middle Tennessee 17, Louisiana Tech 21

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