Modi’s BJP is ahead in Haryana but lagging behind in Kashmir

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is leading in the northern state of Haryana but is set to fall behind in Indian-administered Kashmir as votes are counted in two state elections.

In Jammu and Kashmir, an opposition alliance consisting of the Congress and the regional party National Conference (NC) is currently in the lead.

These were the first state elections in India since the general election in which the BJP returned to power with one result in June reduced majority.

A possible victory in Haryana would be a major boost for Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it would allow it to form a government for a third consecutive term.

A BJP victory would also be completely at odds with the election polls, which had predicted a landslide for the Congress in Haryana.

In Jammu and Kashmir too, polls pointed to a deadlock in the Assembly but if the trend continues, the Congress-North Korea coalition will be able to form the government.

Both states have 90 parliamentary seats and a party or coalition that passes the halfway mark can form the government.

According to the votes counted so far, the Congress-NC alliance is ahead by around 51 seats in Jammu and Kashmir while the BJP is ahead by 26 seats. The BJP’s count will be helped by its performance in the Hindu-majority Jammu region.

These numbers may change as more votes are counted.

This was the first general election in Jammu and Kashmir since 2019, when the federal government revoked the region’s autonomy and converted it into a federally administered territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

In the three-phase elections, BJP and Congress leaders made several promises, including restoration of full statehood.

Lots of voters told the BBC that they hoped the election would give them a chance to voice their concerns after years of having no local representatives.

But many say they are skeptical about the influence the elected government will have, as the prime minister must seek approval from the federally appointed lieutenant governor when making major decisions.

After the last election in 2014, the BJP formed a government with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). But in June 2018, they parted ways due to political and ideological differences amid increasing violence in the Kashmir Valley. Since then, Delhi has ruled the region.

The 2024 election was closely watched as it was seen by federal officials as evidence of normality in a region that has faced decades of militancy.

The region has seen violent insurgencies against Indian rule for more than three decades, leaving thousands of people dead.

India blames Pakistan for fomenting the violence, a charge its neighbor denies. The countries have fought two wars over Kashmir, both of which claim full ownership but only partially administer.

For the first time in decades, several separatists supporting Kashmir’s independence from India also took part in the elections. Smaller actors and regional parties hoped to play a crucial role in forming a government after exit polls suggested the assembly was empty.

In Haryana state, after a decade in power, the ruling BJP faced a major challenge in opposing the incumbency.

Congress’s hopes boosted by anger over controversial federal farm laws – now withdrawn – and a short-term BJP recruitment program for the army.

The farm laws had sparked months of protests by farmers in Haryana and neighboring states as protesters feared they would allow private players to enter agriculture.

Adding to this, the short-term army recruitment program, Agniveer, is a contentious issue in the state a significant number of soldiers to the Indian Army, especially at a time when India is grappling with an employment crisis.

But if the trend continues, the BJP will overcome these challenges and score a hat-trick victory.