College Football and CFP Predictions: Which Group of Five Team Will Make the CFP?

With the introduction of the 12-team format in the College Football Playoff, at least a group of five is now guaranteed Team will do the CFP.

This team needs to win a conference championship, and that won’t be easy in any G5 league this season. Here’s a look at the G5 teams that have the best chance to appear in the College Football Playoff and compete for a national championship.

Forecasts for the G5-GFP 2025

I expect Boise State to be the G5 team to make it to the CFP this season. That’s an easy choice considering the Broncos are the only Group of Five program in the Associated Press Top 25 this week.

The case for Boise State

Boise State has the best odds to reach the College Football Playoff and win the national title among Group of Five teams. And I don’t think there are any valid reasons to argue against it.

Yes, the Broncos lost to Oregon in Week 2. But the Ducks are one of the top 10 teams in the country and Boise State almost beat them on their home field. That’s what a top college football team does.

Boise State has an elite offense with running back Ashton Jeanty, who has a chance to win the Heisman Trophy this season. The Broncos’ defense isn’t perfect, but they are capable of creating turnovers and pressuring quarterbacks, and sometimes that’s all you need.

If quarterback Maddux Madsen can continue to develop throughout the year, I think the Broncos have a good chance of winning the Mountain West with just one loss in the regular season.

The case for Memphis

Memphis was considered by many to be a leading candidate to represent the G5 in the College Football Playoff this offseason, but the Tigers took a step back when they lost to Navy a few weeks ago. They previously defeated North Alabama 40-0 in Week 1 and then beat defending Sun Belt champion Troy 38-17. And their best win so far was in Week 3, when Memphis won a Power Four matchup against Florida State.

Seth Henigan is a veteran quarterback who has the experience to handle pressure. When Memphis needs him to win a game with his arm, he can deliver. Memphis also has great playmakers around Henigan like running back Mario Anderson and wide receiver Roc Taylor.

Memphis is still a good team and can still win a competitive AAC. If the Tigers do this, they will still be considered for a CFP spot.

The case for UNLV

UNLV had a challenging non-conference schedule and nearly earned three wins over Power Four teams.

UNLV opened the season with a 27-7 triumph over Houston. And after defeating Utah Tech 72-14, the Rebels earned a second Power Four win in a 23-20 battle at Kansas in Week 3. UNLV suffered its first loss last week when it fell in overtime to Syracuse.

UNLV’s defense has been impressive so far and will need to continue to hold up against Mountain West opponents.

2025 CFP betting odds for groups of five teams

There are a few G5 teams with college football betting odds to compete in the CFP via BetMGM. The Group of Five teams with betting odds at BetMGM are:

• Boise State +130
• Freedom +400
• Tulane +850
• Memphis +1200
• Louisiana +1600
• Toledo +2000
• UNLV +2500
• Army +2500
• State of Texas +3000
• JMU +3000
• Western Kentucky +3500
• Navy +3500
• Fresno State +4000
• Northern Illinois +4000

2025 CFP Championship odds for groups of five teams

There are also betting odds for G5 teams to win the national championship. The 10 teams with betting odds to win the title at BetMGM are:

• Boise State +20000
• Freedom +50000
• Carolina Coast +100000
• Tulane +100000
• App status +100000
• UNLV +100000
• Memphis +100000
• Fresno State +100000
• Toledo +100000
• State of Texas +100000

I predict Texas will play Ohio State in the College Football Playoff Championship and Texas will win.

Right now, I think the Longhorns are the best team in college football, no matter who is at quarterback.

It’s especially difficult to expect teams to win the SEC and Big Ten since those two conferences are always loaded with talent, and it’s especially difficult this year with Texas now in the SEC and Oregon and USC now in the Big Ten are.

But from my perspective, Texas and Ohio State are the most complete teams and would be best prepared to advance through a daunting CFP round.

I expect Texas, Ohio State, Miami and Utah to be the top four teams in the College Football Playoff at the end of the season.

I expect Boise State to be the second-highest winner of the conference championship, and I believe the CFP selection committee will rank the Broncos at No. 12.

From there, I expect Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Tennessee, Penn State, Oregon and Ole Miss to be in the CFP.

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2024 CFP Games Schedule

The first round of the CFP will be played on Friday, December 20th and Saturday, December 21st. The CFP quarterfinals will take place on Tuesday, December 31st and Wednesday, January 1st. The CFP semifinals will take place on Thursday, January 9th and Friday, January 10th.

In the first round, the number 12 seeded team plays against the number 5 seeded team. The No. 9 team will go on the road to face the No. 8 team. The No. 11 team will travel to face the No. 6 team. And the No. 10 team will face the No. 7 team.

The winner of the 5/12 matchup will face the No. 4 seed in the quarterfinals. Whoever wins the 8/9 competition will play against the top seeded team. The winner of the 6/11 contest will next face the No. 3 seed. And whoever wins the 7/10 battle will face the No. 2 seeded team.

The winners of the games between the number 1 seeded team and the number 4 seeded team will meet in the semi-finals and the winner of the games between the number 3 seeded team and the number 2 seeded team will also play in the semi-finals.

The winners of these two competitions will meet again in the national championship.

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has not yet released rankings and will do so for the first time on Tuesday, November 5th.

So if we drop out of the Associated Press Top 25 after Week 6, the teams in the CFP currently would be:

• #1 Texas
• No. 2 Ohio State
• No. 3 Miami
• No. 4 Iowa State
• No. 5 Penn State
• No. 6 Oregon
• No. 7 Georgia
• No. 8 Alabama
• No. 9 Tennessee
• No. 10 Ole Miss
• No. 11 Clemson
• No. 12 Boise State

This season, for the first time, 12 teams will take part in the College Football Playoff.

The top five ranked conference champions in the FBS – determined by the CFP selection committee – will make the field, as will the top seven ranked teams that have not won a conference title.

The four highest-ranked conference title winners will receive a bye, while the remaining teams will face off in the first round.

The teams seeded higher in these matches will host in the first round. The top four conference winners with the bye receive a bowl game, such as the Sugar Bowl, and the four teams playing in the two semifinal games are also assigned to another bowl.

No re-seeding will be made, nor will any changes be made to avoid rematches from the regular season or competitions between teams in the same conference.