MNF: KC Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints prediction and game thread

Monday Night Football, Week 5. Tonight the Kansas City Chiefs host the New Orleans Saints. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs are home favorites by 5.5 points.

The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a 17-10 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers last week. While the Chiefs are undefeated at 4-0, each game has been decided by a single score. At some point the Chiefs’ luck in one-score games will run out. The Chiefs have lost some big offensive weapons to injuries. Rashee Rice suffered what appeared to be an ACL injury last week, and Isiah Pacheco previously suffered a lower leg injury that landed him on the injured reserve list. With Travis Kelce showing signs of losing the fight over time, the Chiefs offense and Patrick Mahomes look more vulnerable this season than they have in a long time. The Chiefs rank just 15th in the NFL on offense this season, and they have turned the ball over at an alarming rate, ranking 28th in the NFL with seven offensive turnovers. Patrick Mahomes, widely considered the NFL’s best quarterback, has a shockingly low passer rating of under 90 and has thrown nearly as many interceptions (five) as touchdown passes (six). Defensively, things didn’t go much better for the Chiefs, as the defense ranked 15th in the NFL and 23rd in defensive turnovers with just three turnovers. These are not numbers typically associated with undefeated teams. The Chiefs have pulled some rabbits out of the hat, but at some point they either need to improve their level of play or they will inevitably lose a lot more games.

The 2-2 New Orleans Saints started the 2024 season with a bang, beating the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys by a combined score of 91-29. Then, just when the Saints were looking like a juggernaut, their success disappeared. The opening two wins were followed by two losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints run a very conservative offense, running the ball more than any other team in the NFL and passing the ball less than all but one NFL team. That might not work against a Chiefs defense that struggles against the pass but ranks fourth in the NFL in defensive yards per rushing attempt. The Saints defense is also excellent against the run while struggling against the pass. This could theoretically lead to a shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr. That may benefit Mahomes and the Chiefs tremendously, but Carr has fared significantly better than Mahomes this season.

The Chiefs are undefeated and playing at home in this game. Kansas City is notoriously difficult for visiting teams to play in. The Saints and Derek Carr could have some success passing the ball against a vulnerable Chiefs defense, but the Saints are ultimately set up to pound the ball out with the running game. The Chiefs’ main strength on defense is stopping the run. I expect the Chiefs to remain undefeated in a close game against the Saints tonight on Monday Night Football. If you’re betting, we wish you the best of luck and please consider using our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.