2024-25 NHL Standings Predictions: Atlantic Division

Now is the time for Predictions to Certainly Go Wrong, 2024-25 Edition! First up is the Atlantic Division. I was actually pretty proud of what happened at the betting game last year, even though I thought my impression of Florida was pretty horrible. Let us seek salvation this time.

Last season, Atlantic Division teams collected a total of 748 points, which is slightly less than the 761 they collected in the 2022-23 season (as you will remember, because Boston had a record year that season). We’ll be aiming for around 730 again this time without looking at the betting markets or opening lines, assuming that without a pure, non-competitive team in the division, the others won’t be able to compete on an absolute To please the bottom.

And of course, Buffalo has already started its season in the Czech Republic and lost two games to New Jersey. That will be certain, but two of the 82 games are unlikely to be too significant to change the course of an entire season.

2024-25 Atlantic Division Predictions

1. Toronto Maple Leafs (53-21-8, 114 points)
2. Florida Panthers (51-26-5, 107 points)
3. Boston Bruins (47-28-7, 101 points)
4. Tampa Bay Lightning (42-33-7, 91 points)
5. Ottawa Senators (41-36-5, 87 points)
6. Detroit Red Wings (40-37-5, 85 points)
7. Buffalo Sabers (37-39-6, 80 points)
8. Montreal Canadiens (31-41-10, 72 points)

Every year in the Atlantic the question arises as to which of the challenger/rebuilder teams (OTT, DET, BUF) will outperform the old contenders that may be falling behind (BOS, TB). To date this has not happened. We assume that this will not be the case this season either.

Tampa is once again weakened by some important losses, but the core of its team (Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy) is in rhythm. That should be valuable enough to keep them in contention, not to mention they signed Jake Guentzel and Ryan McDonaugh to make up for the big losses of Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev. Tampa is at the end of its championship window but is still a formidable team in the regular season. They will also benefit from Vasilevskiy not coming back from major surgery like he did last season and should get a better performance from him this time around.

Of all the non-playoff teams that might make a move, I like Ottawa the best to take a step forward. The addition of Linus Ullmark should help them in net, but after a few players they get very thin in defense very quickly, which is worrying when you’re trying to put a lot of faith in them and take a big step forward. A wild card could be Travis Green’s coaching, but at this point that could prove to be a positive or negative factor.

This prediction would represent a moderate step backwards for Detroit, no doubt a disappointment for them after narrowly missing the playoffs last season, but again, their defense looks lacking on paper without the great Mo Seider, and that becomes bothersome when viewed a team sees the edge. It wouldn’t take a big little bounce, though, and if they win just a handful of games, we’ll assume they’ve lost and the Red Wings will be in contention for the playoffs.

Buffalo’s coaching decision to bring back Lindy Ruff is rooted in nostalgia, and we wonder how it will work out. Since they’re constantly stuck in the mud, it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to get out of it this season. Sucks for this market that is so desperate and hungry to become relevant again.

The big free agent contracts Boston handed out to Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov may not age well in a few years, but as players in their prime they should undoubtedly get the Bruins back to the playoffs. The signing of Jeremy Swayman was the only potential problem for this, and they solved the problem in a timely manner so that it shouldn’t derail their entire season because the stalemate continued into the season and was distracted by it.

Toronto is a predictable and well-known regular season team, and it is automatic and inevitable that they score more than 100 points. On paper, they should be primed for a strong playoff run, although we all know that once they get there, the postseason events tend to have different plans for them.

Montreal is still under construction and has enough pieces to not be terrible. It’s a shame that Patrik Laine will be out for three to four months. Having another goalscorer in the team might have been a huge boost, but they are still largely in the process of waiting for the right moment and focusing on a brighter future after 2024/25 once their young pieces come into the league .

Given that I’m trying to build a +/- 10 point cushion, there’s a chance of some changes from 4 to 6 that could make things interesting if a new team actually steps up this year. While that’s not outside the realm of possibility, we expect the Atlantic to remain mostly status quo and that there won’t be any incredibly drastic changes just yet.

For the Penguins and other Metropolitan teams, such a prospect would be extremely welcome. If Atlantic 4 and 5 end up with 91 and 87 points, that opens the door for likely a wild card (Metro 4th place) to sneak into the playoffs. If the Atlantic is moderately stronger than this outlook and this rises to A4 with 94 points and A5 with 90+ points, which could easily happen (especially if there are more OTLs to increase the total points), then the wild card situation becomes increasingly dire and unlikely for the Metropolitan teams.

Tomorrow we’ll turn to the Metropolitan and see where the Pens fit into the mix.