“A tragic, wasteful, terrible predicament with no way out”: Five takeaways from David Frum’s discussion of Israel’s ongoing war

In a recent episode of “In Conversation with David Frum,” Frum and The hubs Editor-in-Chief Sean Speer marked the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 by discussing the current state of the conflict, including recent Iranian missile attacks, how Canada and the United States have responded, and what may lie ahead as the key to the future Israel and the entire region.

Below are five key takeaways from this conversation. The following has been edited and condensed for clarity.

1. This has always been a regional war

“We hear a lot about escalation and regional conflicts. What do these terms mean? We’ve just had a massive bombardment from Iran across the airspace of Iraq and Jordan into Israel twice in a year, with hundreds of ballistic missiles – and also other technologies, drones, cruise missiles – with fortunately minor injuries. Then you hear people say, “We have to avoid a regional war.” States go – does not mean that we have not already escalated, then what do these terms mean?

“I think one thing we have learned leading up to this anniversary is that it has always been a regional war. From the outset, this was not a territorial dispute about what the exact borders of the Gaza Strip should be. These were always internationally financed, internationally based and internationally supported terrorist groups that attacked the sovereign state of Israel across borders. I think we have more clarity on this. I wonder if one of the lessons of the past year has been that escalation is going to happen whether you want it or not. So maybe you should take control of it and try to reach the end instead of prolonging the nightmare.”

2. Iran must pay a high price

“At the moment, Iranians are making this a habit. That’s about every six months. You have to pay a significant price. Iran has previously carried out numerous terrorist attacks on European and Western soil: two horrific, gruesome bombings in Argentina in the early 1990s and an assassination attempt in Berlin. At the height of this wave, Western governments took action. I don’t know exactly what it was, but it must have hurt because the Iranians stopped abruptly. They stop when they pay a price. They don’t stop unless they pay a price. So they have to pay a price and something that is important to them has to be taken away from them.

“How the various governments coordinate this – whether it’s something visible, like the oil refineries or the nuclear program, or something less visible, like their presence in Syria – they have to pay a price, otherwise this will continue.” They don’t do a good risk calculation , so someone has to help them calculate.”

3. The isolationists are wrong. America must support its allies in times of crisis

“I hear that [isolationist] Argument. To me it sounds like this: “I really want to reassure the bank that I can meet my mortgage obligations.” So what I’m going to do is default on the electric bill, the water bill, the credit card bill and hoard all the money, so that the bank can see that I am really willing to pay the mortgage.” The bank wants to make sure that you meet all of your obligations.

“It’s a shrinking planet and it’s connected. So the idea that you can somehow muster the strength to confront the Chinese in Asia while betraying allies everywhere – the policy recommended by this school of thought – teaches the Chinese the lesson that the Americans abandoned under pressure from their friends. They have abandoned their friends in Europe. They have abandoned their friends in the Middle East. If you put more pressure on them, they will also abandon their friends in Asia.”

“When it comes to American leadership in the world, we are only reminded of how indispensable it is. This idea that the United States can withdraw from here but be credible there – the planet isn’t that big and the United States is that big. So the United States has global responsibilities. Obviously, it doesn’t have unlimited resources. There have to be priorities, more here, less there. But it must view global politics as a global system. Not as a collection of rooms that you can enter and exit.”

4. Canada’s response was woefully inadequate

“I think the Trudeau government looks ridiculous and pathetic in this regard. I mean, it looks like a lab rat plucked from two conflicting currents and just scurrying around saying, “We condemn violence against Israel.” Zap. “Okay, okay, but we also judge.” [Israel’s self-defence].’ Why are they bothering you?

“At this point, the Trudeau government has brought Canada’s foreign policy standing to such a low point that I’m not sure anyone in the region even notices what Canada is saying about this or that. So maybe just give up on the whole thing until you build up some stocks where Canada has something useful to contribute. Trudeau’s foreign policy is very clear. You do or say whatever is necessary to influence swing riding poll numbers in the next 12 hours, and you don’t worry if any of your statements are in any way consistent with or contradictory to the statements you made 12 hours ago for your last sentence have made the immediate election need.

“Where Canada should be is first by restoring its ability to be a good citizen internationally, to be a respected ally and to make its voice heard in the Council of Nations. And then what is needed is a foreign policy that is guided by international security concerns, rather than the busy needs of a decaying government.”

5. This war does not have a good outcome

“There are no good results here. It’s just a terrible tragedy. The suffering on the Palestinian side will be great. Gaza will not be rebuilt quickly. The loss of potential opportunities for everyone is simply terrible. There are no good results here. I mean, it’s just a tragic, wasteful, terrible situation with no way out. What you’re hearing in Washington from the Biden administration is the vision that we’re going to build some kind of replacement authority in Gaza that will somehow be linked to a reformed and decorrupted Palestinian Authority and then the Arab states will pay for it. Well, if they make it, good luck to them.

“But it sounds like a lot of wishful thinking. The best outcome here is that Iran learns the lesson of a lifetime and that Iran’s nuclear program comes to a halt without massive violence, and that we achieve some sort of stability between Israelis and Palestinians and some sort of security system and that kind of humanitarian (aid). But it won’t be good. What Hamas did on October 7th set Palestinians, Israelis and everyone on a path of tragedy from which I see no good way out.”

“From the beginning I saw it as something that wasn’t producing good results. It was just pure loss. I think that now. But I mean, Israel has successfully damaged Hezbollah’s power and the Iranian regime’s credibility over the past week. In my opinion, this is a plus, not just for Israel, but for everyone in the region who is terrorized by Hezbollah and is afraid of Iran. This is something snatched from this colossal human ruin.”