Kamala Harris remains narrowly in the lead in key states in the US presidential election campaign

The presidential election in the United States will take place on November 5th. Analyst Nate Silver’s national polls have Democrat Kamala Harris leading Republican Donald Trump 49.3 to 46.2, a slight increase for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led Trump 49.3 to 46.0.

Joe Biden’s final position before withdrawing as the Democratic nominee on July 21 was a 45.2-41.2 national poll deficit against Trump.

According to economic data, the US added 254,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 4.1%. The unemployment rate peaked at 4.3% in July.

The US president is elected not by a nationwide popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its seats in the House of Representatives (population) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-takes-all basis, requiring 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Compared to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased against Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point win in the popular vote to be the Electoral College favorite in Silver’s model.

In key states, Harris continues to lead by one to two points in Silver’s poll results in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten) and Nevada (six). If Harris wins these four states, she is likely to win the Electoral College by at least 276 votes to 262. Trump leads in North Carolina by 0.5 points (16 electoral votes), one point in Georgia (16) and 1.2 points in Arizona (11).

Read more: Kamala Harris is the slight favorite to win the US election as she narrowly leads in key states

In Silver’s model, Harris has a 56 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, which is unchanged since last Monday’s article. The FiveThirtyEight model was more favorable to Harris in September, but now gives her a 55% chance of winning. The odds for both candidates are close to 50-50, but Harris remains a slight favorite.

There are still more than four weeks until the election. So it’s time for the polls to change and for one candidate to have a decisive advantage in the Electoral College on Election Day. Or the polls could be underestimating either Harris or Trump. In this case, the candidate who benefits from the poll error could win a decisive victory.

Overwhelming lead for LNP in Queensland

Queensland’s state election will take place on October 26. A Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted from September 26 to 29 among a sample of 1,067 people, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) a lead of 56 to 44, a five-point lead for the LNP corresponds since the last freshwater survey in July 2023.

The primary votes were: 43% for LNP (up three), 30% for Labor (down four), 12% for the Greens (up one), 8% for One Nation (up one) and 7% for everyone else (down one ).

Labor Premier Steven Miles had a net approval rating of -5, while LNP leader David Crisafulli had a net approval rating of +15. Crisafulli led Miles as preferred prime minister 46-38.

The poll asked about the federal leaders’ ratings for Queensland, with Anthony Albanese at net -17 while Peter Dutton was at net zero. Queensland is a coalition-friendly state in federal elections compared to national results.

Federal Newspoll quarterly data

On September 30, The Australian published aggregated data for the four Newspolls from July to September, which had a combined sample size of 5,035. The Poll Bludger said the Coalition led New South Wales 51 to 49, unchanged from the June quarter.

In Victoria, Labor led 52 to 48, a two-point lead for the Coalition. In Queensland, the coalition led by an unchanged 54 to 46. In Western Australia, Labor remained ahead by 52 votes to 48. In South Australia, Labor led 54 to 46, an increase of one point for Labor.

Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack data shows results by education level. In the September quarter, Labor led among graduates by 53 points to 47, an increase of one point for Labor. There was a 50-50 tie among TAFE-educated people, giving the Coalition a one-point lead. Those without college degrees favored the coalition 51 to 49, a gain of one point for the coalition.

Coalition wins lead in Morgan poll

A national Morgan poll conducted September 23-29 among a sample of 1,668 people gave the Coalition a 51-49 lead, an increase of 1.5 points for the Coalition since the Morgan poll dated September 16th to 22nd corresponds.

The primary votes were: 38% of the coalition parties (plus 0.5), 30% of the Labor party (minus two), 13.5% of the Greens (plus one), 4.5% of the Unity party (minus 0.5), 9.5% of independents (stable) and 4.5% of others (plus one). .

The headline image is based on respondents’ preferences. However, if preferences were allocated based on the 2022 election results, Labor was in the lead 51.5-48.5, a gain of 0.5 points for the Coalition. There was an unusually large gap between the two measures last week.

Complete the survey on the Middle East conflict

No voting intentions have yet been announced in a nine-newspaper nationwide Resolve poll conducted Oct. 1-5 among 1,606 respondents. In terms of Australia’s political response to the Middle East conflict, 22% said Dutton and the Liberals responded best, 18% Albanese and Labor and 6% Adam Bandt and the Greens, while 55% said neither responded best or are unsure.

As for Australia’s actions, 23% said we should support Israel in principle, 12% said we should support Gaza, and 65% said we should support both or neither. When it comes to accepting refugees, 52% do not want to accept refugees, 24% would accept refugees from either Israel or Gaza, 13% only from Gaza and 11% only from Israel.