Picks against the spread for each game

Readers of this column in the last four weeks or 31 years know that we do not have a one-size-fits-all approach to disability.

There are always countless aspects to consider, from injuries (is a team decimated at a key position?) to weather and travel considerations (is it a short week or the third consecutive away game for one of the teams) to current form. We look at them all and then try to choose the one or two that are most relevant for a prediction for a particular game.

That brings us to the New York Jets’ game against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in London, which begins at 9:30 a.m. ET.

You can get tangled up in all the conflicting statistics all you want. For example, the Vikings defense leads the NFL with 17 sacks, but also ranks last in passing yards allowed per game. Is this because the team is sometimes ahead by a large margin in every game, or are there gaps?

The Jets defense ranks second in passing yards, third in total yards and fifth in points allowed. But we all remember the 401 yards and 31 points it gave the 49ers in the opening game. Is everything really sealed off?

Both quarterbacks – Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold – are dealing with knee soreness and will be tested on top passing offenses.

So this game probably comes down to the least analytical of all handicapping strategies: the situation.

The Jets are coming off a loss with a 2-2 record and games against the Bills and Steelers (combined 6-2) over the next two weeks. Head coach Robert Saleh, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and, yes, even Rodgers are eager to stop the penalties, use the weapons, score more points and come back across the pond with a W.

The Vikings are 4-0 and there’s nothing to knock as their last three wins have come against the 49ers and Texans at home and at the Packers. The Vikings were coming off a 31-29 win at Lambeau after taking a 28-0 lead.

We’ve been reminded several times this season that the NFL is a week-to-week league and that both the good and the bad times will end. The Saints scored 47 and 44 points in wins in Week 3, then 12 in a loss. The Bills averaged 37 ppg in three wins and then scored 10 in one loss. An 0-2 start scared the Ravens straight away.

If you have both dynamics on a collision course, this seems like the way to go:

The pick: Jets +2.5.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6) over New York Giants

This is about the injuries, and they are everywhere. Half of Seattle’s defensive starters are listed as questionable. But what can the Giants do about it with Malik Nabers (concussion) out and Devin Singletary (groin) also sitting or limping? Typically, I like the heavy road dog for Brian Daboll and the Giants, but this one is a potential outlier.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (+2.5) over Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore has the No. 1 offense in the NFL and has been guaranteed in wins over the Cowboys and Bills. Cincinnati is still just 1-3 after beating Carolina, so this remains a must-win for a team that finally has both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins healthy for Joe Burrow.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns

Although it contradicts the “all good things must come to an end” narrative, the margin seems like a small price to pay to acquire a quarterback (Jayden Daniels) who completes 82.1 percent of his passes against an injury-depleted opponent. The Commanders are averaging 30.6 ppg compared to the Browns’ 16.5. There is a big gap between these numbers and this line.

Buffalo Bills (-1) over HOUSTON TEXANS

With the exception of Nico Collins’ breakout, the expected improvement in the Texans’ offense hasn’t quite materialized. They defeated their only top opponent so far, the Vikings, 34:7. It’s back-to-back road games for Buffalo, but Josh Allen suffered a huge loss by a tiny margin? Yes, please!

CHICAGO BEARS (-4) over Carolina Panthers

I expect the instant jolt Andy Dalton gave the Panthers when he replaced the ineffective Bryce Young to wear off, especially if WR Diontae Johnson (ankle) is out or impaired. The Bears are 2-0 at home, with a margin that would cover that number, and Caleb Williams should only continue to join forces with Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and DJ Moore.

Miami Dolphins (+1) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Dolphins are a disaster, but that’s the kind of numbers adjustment you’d expect if the Patriots were also better than expected. They are just as bad, if not worse. At least the Dolphins have some high-level weapons that Tyler Huntley may be able to unlock with a little more practice time.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3) over Indianapolis Colts

For the 0-4 Jaguars, jobs (Doug Pederson) and reputations (Trevor Lawrence) are at stake. The only bright spot is that this is only their second home game and the sight of the Colts, against whom they scored 68 points in two games last season, might finally revive this moribund offense.

Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Just another one of those situational aspects that has the potential to send us into a major upset late Sunday afternoon: The Cardinals suffered a stunning loss, the Niners pulled off a runaway victory. Underdogs +7 or better are actually 5-1 this season (although Niners over Patriots were the exception).

DENVER BRONCOS (-3) over Las Vegas Raiders

The Davante Adams trade saga will likely cause him to miss Sunday’s game in Denver against a team that ranks No. 2 in yards allowed and No. 3 in points allowed. Bo Nix returns home a new man after consecutive away wins.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (+3) over Green Bay Packers

With a score of 28-0, Jordan Love almost pulled off a miracle win against the Vikings. He may have just started, but with the absence of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, people are sleeping on the Rams. I still suspect that Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford can surprise as the home team, like they did against the Niners two weeks ago.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-2.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Let’s add it up. Dallas will likely be without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, which would weaken its defense. The Cowboys also rank last in the NFL in rushing yards per game. If that continues, Dak Prescott will have to deal with TJ Watt. You don’t want to score too many points with a Steelers team that has scored six touchdowns in four games, but that number seems reasonable.

Betting on the NFL?

Monday

New Orleans Saints (+5.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Kansas City’s 4-0 record is a little too magical, as Isaiah Likely was a toenail long in the opening game and wins over the Bengals and Falcons could have meant defeat. Now Rashee Rice is out, joining Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown. Derek Carr is 3-14 in his career against the Chiefs. However, this might be the best situation he’s ever had.

Best Bets: Steelers, Bills, Broncos
Castle of the week: Steelers (2-2 in 2024)
Last week: 10-5-1 overall, 1-2 best bets
Thursday: privateer.