Kais Saied is seeking a new term as president, one candidate is in prison

Tunisia’s President Kais Saied, seen as a savior by his supporters and an autocrat by critics, is running for re-election on Sunday and is all but certain to win the election.

More than a dozen politicians had hoped to challenge him, but The election commission only approved two additional names for the ballot.

And one of them, Ayachi Zammel, was sentenced to 12 years in prison for document falsification just five days before the election.

The Arab Spring, a series of uprisings against autocratic rulers in North Africa and the Middle East, began in Tunisia in late 2010. The country was considered a beacon of democracy for the Arab world.

But since President Saied was elected on a wave of optimism in 2019, the 66-year-old has suspended parliament, rewritten the constitution and concentrated power in his hands.

This is the third presidential election in Tunisia since the overthrow of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. He had been in power for over two decades before he was forced to flee to Saudi Arabia after months of massive protests.

Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace with expertise in the Middle East, told the BBC that the president had “manipulated the political and legal situation to the point where there is no contradiction – he is the only viable candidate.” .

There were no campaign rallies or public debates and almost all campaign posters on the streets featured the president.

The Tunisian election was “really a referendum on Kais Saied,” Ms. Yerkes added.

The North African country’s main opposition party, Ennahda, said its senior members had been arrested on an unprecedented scale.

The New York-based group Human Rights Watch reported that authorities had barred eight other potential candidates from the election through prosecution and detention.

In recent weeks, people have taken to the streets in the capital Tunis to protest against President Saied and demand free and fair elections.

Although Zammel, who leads the small liberal Azimoun party, was jailed for forging voter signatures on his candidacy papers, his name will continue to appear on the ballot.

He has denied the allegations, reports the Reuters news agency.

The other candidate, former lawmaker Zouhair Maghzaoui, was a supporter of the president taking power in 2021 but later became a critic.

“The Tunisian authorities are carrying out a clear attack on the fundamental pillars of human rights in the run-up to the elections,” said Agnès Callamard, secretary general of human rights group Amnesty International.

Ms Yerkes told the BBC that the Tunisian leader had “continually undone a decade of democratic progress”.

But at first he was seen in a completely different light.

When Saied, a renowned legal scholar, won more than 70% of the presidential election in 2019, he promised “a new Tunisia.”

He represents “the non-elite in Tunisia” and tries to “be a voice for the more marginalized populations,” Ms. Yerkes said.

Promises he made after his victory included reviving the economy and curbing corruption.

When asked what he would do for the economy, he replied a local newspaper, he would “empower people with tools.” He did not specify what tools would be involved.

He was nicknamed “the Professor” and enjoyed enormous support, particularly among young people who were disillusioned with the endless bickering of the political classes.

But in 2021, he initiated what experts call a “self-coup” when he dismissed parliament and seized all executive power.

He justified his actions by saying that he needed new powers to break the cycle of political paralysis and economic decline.

That same year, in an interview with The New York Times, he denied any autocratic ambitions when he quoted former French President Charles de Gaulle as saying, “Why do you think that at 67 I would start a career as a dictator?”

Under Saied’s rule, Tunisia has fallen from 53rd to 82nd in the Economist Intelligence Unit’s democracy index, which measures political freedoms and pluralism.

“He has already returned Tunisia to autocracy,” Ms. Yerkes said.

In addition to Tunisia’s weakening democracy, the lack of jobs is also a hot topic. Unemployment is therefore at 16% World Bank.

The country’s struggling economy has forced many young people to emigrate.

Tunisia is an important starting point for migrants wanting to reach Europe.

UN figures show that at least 12,000 migrants who landed on Italy’s shores last year left Tunisia.

Fearing a further influx of migrants, the European Union struck a deal with Tunisia, giving the country $118m (£90m) to stop smuggling, strengthen borders and send migrants back.

Saied also took a populist approach to stoking support, blaming migrants for the country’s economic woes.

He accused black sub-Saharan migrants of being involved in a “conspiracy” to change the country’s demographic profile and accused “traitors working for foreign countries.”

This led to a spate of racist attacks against black people living in Tunisia.

While his rhetoric has won him some support, there are some who have been put off by the comments.

In response to his comments, groups across the country organized anti-racist protests.

He has tried to shift blame but has shown “no signs of being able to turn the economy around,” Ms. Yerkes said.

In his first election statement, released shortly after the official campaign began, Saied pledged to strengthen health services, transportation and social security after decades of efforts to “abolish” public institutions.

Saied’s consolidation of power has led to an apathetic mood ahead of the elections.

Last year only 11% of voters were present to vote for new MPs.

It is “likely that voter turnout will be similarly dismal this time,” Ms. Yerkes said.

Official results will be announced within three days of the election, but there is little doubt about the outcome.