Baylor vs. Iowa State Prediction: Abu Sama should roll

The Big 12 is a mess of mediocrity in 2024, with a mix of slightly above and below average teams competing each week. The Bears vs. Cyclones matchup is a prime example of this chaos.

Baylor is heading in the wrong direction while Iowa State is on the rise and has an undefeated record so far. Before you place your bets, take a look at where we stand in this Baylor vs. Iowa State prediction.

Baylor vs. Iowa State betting preview

All Baylor vs. Iowa State Odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Saturday, October 5, 2024. The CFN spread comes from the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  Iowa State -11.5
• Spread
  Iowa State -12
• Money line
  Iowa State -455, Baylor +350
• Over/Under
  45 points
• Playtime
  October 5, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location
  Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa
• Predicted weather at Kick
  76 degrees, clear, 14 mph wind
• Here’s how to watch
  FOX

The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are aligned here, as both have the Cyclones as double-digit favorites. With a spread of 11.5/12 points and a total score of 45, Vegas suggests a final score of around 29-16 in favor of the Cyclones.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

While Baylor’s offense prefers to play fast, Iowa State’s deliberate offensive approach has produced better results in 2024. The total reflects the Cyclones’ defensive prowess and Baylor’s strong defensive efficiency numbers.

While the spread has barely changed, the total value has fallen by one point since the open.

Baylor’s probability of winning

The Football Playoff Meter is closely based on Vegas.

FPM has Baylor as a 12-point underdog, giving it a 19.4% win probability. This represents the Bears’ lowest win probability in all remaining games, as this metric gives them a greater than 33% chance of winning every other game this season.

• at Iowa State: 19.4%
• at Texas Tech: 36.4%
• against Oklahoma State: 39.4%
• against TCU: 49.6%
• in West Virginia: 33.6%
• in Houston: 62.6%
• against Kansas: 50.0%

Iowa State’s probability of winning

Conversely, Iowa State has an 80.6% chance of winning on Saturday. FPM likes the Cyclones in seven of their remaining eight games, but only one of them has a greater probability of winning than this weekend against Baylor.

In what could be a special season, the Cyclones cannot afford to fall behind against weaker competition.

• against Baylor: 80.6%
• in West Virginia: 60.6%
• against UCF: 74.6%
• against Texas Tech: 74.9%
• in Kansas: 65.1%
• against Cincinnati: 81.6%
• in Utah: 47.5%
• vs. Kansas State: 61.1%

Baylor vs. Iowa State prediction

Baylor is 2-3, and if they’re not careful, this season could turn around quickly. The offense has turned heads with backup quarterback Sawyer Robertson at the helm, but losses to some of the Big 12’s supposedly stronger teams (though the conference hierarchy is still unclear) have slowed the Bears’ momentum.

When they’re at their best, the defense can be stingy – but it’s hard to say if that’s because the offense is struggling or if there’s real potential in this unit. Opponents often tried to run the ball but didn’t have much success. Although completions were few and far between, Baylor’s secondary was prone to big plays when tested.

They will be tested against an efficient Iowa State offense. The Cyclones don’t play at a rapid pace, but they rank 39th in both yards per game and points per game and make the most of every possession.

Defensively, Iowa State is a powerhouse, ranking third in defensive points per drive and 10th in yards allowed per game.

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Offensively, they were ice cold in the red zone, but while they rarely allow their opponents to reach the red zone, the Cyclones showed some cracks inside the 20.

From a purely football standpoint, this looks like a classic defensive battle, pitting Iowa State’s efficient offense against a Baylor defense that is solid on offense but has struggled to give up big plays.

From a narrative perspective, a difficult away environment against the best defense will spell trouble for Baylor all season long – especially given Dave Aranda’s 5-16 record in his last 21 games. If Iowa State starts fast, it’s hard to imagine Baylor making a comeback, especially in Ames.

If the Cyclones build an early lead, they should be able to gradually break away from it and cover, getting close to the total but staying under it.

Forecast: Iowa State 30, Baylor 13

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