Tennessee vs. Arkansas Prediction: Nico Iamaleava is getting going

The Tennessee Volunteers quietly boosted their College Football Playoff chances after beating Oklahoma on the road and watching other contenders fall. Their path to the playoffs now continues with one of only two real road tests.

Arkansas, meanwhile, is entering a trying stretch and needs a clear win to keep its bowl hopes alive. Can the Razorbacks keep up with Tennessee’s explosive offense and sneaky defense? Check out our full Tennessee vs. Arkansas prediction to find out.

Tennessee vs Arkansas betting preview

All Tennessee vs. Arkansas Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Saturday, October 5, 2024. The CFN spread comes from the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  Tennessee -13
• Spread
  Tennessee -14
• Money line
  Tennessee -520, Arkansas +390
• Over/Under
  58 points
• Playtime
  October 5, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location
  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium | Fayetteville, AR
• Predicted weather at Kick
  80 degrees, clear, five mile per hour wind
• Here’s how to watch
  ABC

Since the early release of the Tennessee vs. Arkansas odds, there is no longer any doubt that the Volunteers are the favorite by almost two touchdowns. The DraftKings sportsbook odds have been in lockstep with CFN’s football playoff meter all along, perhaps just half a point, or a full point on the road in favor of the Vols on Friday.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

If you want even more confidence in the Tennessee vs. Arkansas odds, and especially the Volunteers’ chances, consider the fact that they are 4-0 against the spread. Josh Heupel’s team was considered double-digit and single-digit favorites and won every game by at least 10 points.

Something else to consider: Before Week 6, every SEC-only game in 2024 involving the two teams is under the point limit.

Tennessee’s probability of winning

The football playoff meter is more in line with Vegas for Tennessee in Week 6, as the win probability is 82.8%. And yet, this represents the Volunteers’ third-lowest win probability with one game remaining, well behind the games against Alabama and Georgia.

Tennessee’s win probabilities for the remainder of the season are listed below.

• in Arkansas: 82.8%
• vs Florida: 93.4%
• vs. Alabama: 49.4%
• against Kentucky: 87.2%
• vs. Mississippi State: 96.3%
• in Georgia: 35.9%
• vs. UTEP: 99.9%
• against Vanderbilt: 95.8%

Arkansas win probability

Conversely, Arkansas has a 17.2% chance of winning on Saturday. FPM isn’t particularly kind to Arkansas, and that’s largely due to a schedule that includes LSU, Ole Miss, Texas and Missouri.

In fact, Tennessee is only the third most difficult game that Arkansas still has on the schedule. The path to a bowl game or better will have to be paved with an upset or two, as the Razorbacks have a win probability of less than 25% in five of their remaining seven games.

Arkansas’ win probabilities for the remainder of the season are listed below.

• against Tennessee: 17.2%
• vs. LSU: 21.9%
• in the state of Mississippi: 68.8%
• against Ole Miss: 24.9%
• against Texas: 11.4%
• vs. Louisiana Tech: 87.8%
• in Missouri: 11.9%

Tennessee vs Arkansas Prediction

Sam Pittman’s team is on shaky ground after missing two very winnable games against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. Tennessee may be a completely different beast, but can Arkansas at least keep it competitive?

One of the stories little known this year is how dominant Tennessee’s defensive line has been – a unit that has quietly terrorized opposing quarterbacks all season long. Their run defense is the best in the country and they only allow 8.3 points per game.

On offense, Tennessee hits the rock with impressive speed and ranks second in rush rate among all non-roster academy teams.

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I don’t think the Arkansas defense will be able to contain the Vols, and I’m even less confident that the Razorbacks will be able to establish a ground game against this relentless Tennessee front. This puts a lot of pressure on Taylen Green to be successful as a pocket passer.

If that’s the case, I don’t think Arkansas will get much offense. The Razorback defense has shown promise, so Nico Iamaleava may face some hurdles.

Ultimately, I think Tennessee is getting the job done, but Arkansas’ defense is a step up from some of the teams Tennessee dismantled earlier in the season. Expect the Vols to build a solid lead and lean on their running game to close out the game without running up the score.

Forecast: Tennessee 34, Arkansas 14

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