Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Commanders NFL Week 5 Preview and Prediction

This Sunday, the Cleveland Browns take on the Washington Commanders, one of the hottest teams in football. Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.

Game Analysis

Kudos to the Opposition

• I usually begin this previews by making my pitch for why the Browns have a chance to be better this week, or what they need to work on. This week, though, I have to start by heaping praise toward our opposition.
• I’d go as far as to say that the Washington Commanders are the most intriguing offense in football for me. As our Commanders affiliate pointed out, they have the 3rd-highest run rate in the NFL. They started things simple with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, but he has picked things up very well. In his last three games, he has completed 70-of-82 passes (85%) for 713 yards and 3 touchdowns. That level of efficiency is off-the-charts.

• On the ground, Daniels also has 46 rushes for 218 yards and 4 touchdowns. Their offensive line is run blocking well. Daniels has been sacked 9 times, but he had a clean sheet last week.
• One factor we always try to consider, though, is what type of defenses has the opposition faced so far? They’ve played the Buccaneers (18th), Giants (12th), Bengals (15th), and Cardinals (28th). Cleveland would be the best defense they’ve faced, but it’s not like they’ve been facing complete trash. The thing that worries me is this: teams are getting smarter about knowing how to beat the Browns’ aggressive defense by running plays to the edge and the boundary. That doesn’t mean the defense is getting smoked every drive, but with the offense struggling, that means the other team is getting a few key drives that allow the team to grab the lead.

Browns’ Positives

• I am still baffled by how under Deshaun Watson’s watch, the Browns just cannot score that many points. It is insane how many times we see the offense score once early, and then I blink, and it feels like the fourth quarter is here and I don’t even remember any memorable plays, drives, or scores (that’s because they aren’t happening).
• It was good to see Watson put together his best game of the season last week. It was the first one in which, after the game, there was no way I could say, “We lost that game because of Watson.” I’m not chalking up victories, though, because it was against the 31st-ranked defense in the NFL, and a team that was missing their best pass rusher in Maxx Crosby. This week, Washington ranks 27th defensively and 23rd in sacks. At some point, even if it’s just dumb luck, you have to score more offensively, so hopefully we see that this week to give the team a chance.
• Injury-wise, the Browns might be getting David Njoku back this week, and there’s an outside chance that one or both of Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin will return. Nick Chubb won’t play, but his presence in practice reportedly gave the team a big boost in morale. If we’re looking for an optimistic storyline this week, it could be this: the defense gives Jayden Daniels his first game of rookie mistakes, and the offense finally clicks. Cleveland isn’t favored in this game, but there’s no way anyone can tell me they have no chance of winning each week.

Quick Hitters

• An interesting response from offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey this week: when discussing the increased usage of tight ends against Washington, he seemed to indicate that Kevin Stefanski was responsible for that:

When you’re having protection issues on the outside, why not use more tight ends to kind of help out there? Is that just kind of take away from your scheme and the offense design?

“No, that’s a good question. I think there’s a balance there because obviously, when you do that, you limit the number of receivers out on the route. So, I think Kevin did a great job this past week in terms of mixing those protections up. We use some tight ends, we use some – get everybody out, five-man, six-man, seven-man. So just that mix there was, I think, really good for us and helped us there up front. And I think that’s the world you want to make sure you’re living in; you don’t want to live in one world. You want to make sure you’re trying to keep a defense off balance as much as possible by mixing it up, mixing in the chips. Whether it’s chipping both sides, chipping one side, keeping the tight ends in protection, getting them out, five-man pros and relying on Deshaun to make the decision to get the ball out. So, I think there’s a definite balance there that you have to strike because if you’re living in one world, you allow defense to get a beat on you.”

• Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz gave an example of when the Browns’ aggressiveness works against them:

What did you think the issues with the run defense were against the (Las Vegas) Raiders? Myles (Garrett) mentioned maybe they were attacking the edges and going after the back end a little bit.

Yeah, I mean, everybody wants to attack our edges. I thought probably the biggest things in the game, we got a thing that I try to guard against, we got way too antsy when we had them backed up at the end of the first half and instead of doing our job, we were trying to make a safety. And when we did that, we jumped out of a gap and we got gashed in the run game and we let them off the hook. So there was that. There was a couple times interior gaps either got blocked or got vacated. I think when it was all said and done, that was probably a little bit more. And then the third down run, third-and-10 run, which put them in position to score a touchdown. You look back on that game, I think there were like three really critical plays. We had a third down, had a really good rush and coverage and hit the quarterback, and we’re off the field probably forcing a punt, and we hit the quarterback in the head, which is the second time in the last couple of weeks we do, and it gives them 15 yards, keeps the drive alive, and they get a field goal off of that. So we’re talking three points there. And then we have a third and 10 where they’re already in field goal range, but it’s a fairly long field goal, whatever, it’s in the 40s, whatever it is, and they run the ball just to sort of solidify the field goal and we miss three tackles, give up a first down and they get a touchdown. So that’s basically a four-point play there. So there’s seven points in the game. And then you combine that with getting squirrelly on the backed up where we couldn’t resist the urge to try to do too much and we tried to get a safety instead of playing good team defense, forcing a punt, and now maybe the offense has, whatever it would have been, 20 seconds left or whatever, ball around midfield to try to kick a long field goal. So when it was all said and done, I really think the game came down to those three and there were critical mistakes by us and it cost us the game.”

Predictions

Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN.

Chris Pokorny: “I’ve picked the Browns to win each game this season. In the first case, against Dallas, I was going with the season-opening hype. In the following three games, they were against teams who I still feel the Browns are superior to, and they went 1-2 in that stretch, largely due to a number of self-inflicted mistakes. Now, they face a Washington offense that is clicking on all cylinders in terms of efficiency, and playing smart football. The Browns’ defense is solid, but still has weaknesses; and if these bad teams are exploiting the edge, so will Washington. If the Browns’ offense was crisper, I’d lean more toward picking Cleveland, but until they prove they can score 20+ points in a game, it’s just a losing effort to roll with our beloved team.” Commanders 23, Browns 17

Jared Mueller: “Predicting a Browns victory is very silly but it is exactly what I did for SBNation.com this week. Kevin Stefanski has only had two streaks of losing three or more games in his four-plus seasons at the helm, Deshaun Watson had his best game last week and this team is desperate. The Commanders might be a little bit schedule-lucky so far. As long as Jayden Daniels doesn’t destroy the defense with his legs, Cleveland will squeak out the victory.” Browns 23, Commanders 21

Thomas Moore: “The Browns have lost two consecutive games in frustrating fashion, while the Commanders are riding a three-game winning streak. The Browns are ranked No. 19 against the run, No. 22 in yards per carry, and have allowed 16 runs of 10-plus yards on the season. The Commanders are currently among the top 5 in the league in runs of 10-plus yards, rushing touchdowns (10), yards per carry (5.1), and rushing first downs. The Browns have scored 66 total points on the season, while the Commanders have scored 80 points in just the past two games combined.

It is probably folly to think the Browns can win this game, but this team has shown the capacity to deal with adversity in the past, and Sunday is about as close to a must-win game as you can have on the first weekend of October.” Browns 16, Commanders 10

Barry Shuck: “Difficult to pick the Browns any week, eh? They lost to bad teams in the Raiders and especially the Giants. Geez. This offense is horrible. Getting Nick Chubb, Nyheim Hines, and David Njoku back will certainly help. This receiver group is a crap shoot. Jerry Jeudy has been fair to good, Amari Cooper has been good to fair while Elijah Moore and Ced Tillman have gone AWOL. The offensive line is the worst group in the league. This talented defense just can’t stay on the field all these minutes this lousy offense puts them through. Good thing the Browns have a good kicker and a great punter! Washington is a very good team – #3 passing offense. Browns can’t run, can’t block, and can’t pass with zero playmakers so far this season.” Commanders 37, Browns 13

Ezweav: “It’s just not falling right for the good guys. Was really disappointing to be left without a replacement for Jordan Hicks, and then subsequently not be able to stop the run. It’s hard to believe that could happen again to us after 2022, but here we are.

Watz still isn’t good enough and the OL play (particularly the embarrassingly poor performance of Dawand Jones) is usually good for stopping 2-3 drives per game. And if somehow we do manage to complete the process of not defecating all over ourselves for the span of a full, singular offensive play, that’s when the impressive incompetence of the officiating staff gets demonstrated in leaping, screaming fashion (shout out to Myles still getting held on every play).” Commanders 25, Browns 17

Curtiss Brown: “Two things can be true. One, the Commanders are hot right now and their rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is playing like a star. Two, the Browns are struggling and they are looking for answers or the season will be lost. By the way people are talking about the Commanders, you would think they are some unstoppable force. They aren’t. Washington’s offense can generate explosives but the past two weeks they have went up against below average defenses. As far as their defense goes, they rank towards the bottom in defensive EPA/per play. Not good. Washington might be better than what people think but this team has flaws you can exploit.

Defensively, Cleveland just has to play sound against Washington. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense may be hot right now but once teams adjust to it, the production dips. Jayden Daniels is playing well but the Browns defense poses a serious challenge for him. Cleveland’s defense is not as elite as it was last year but it’s good enough (despite what people say).

Offensively, the Browns will hopefully get some pieces back. Washington’s secondary has holes to exploit but their interior defensive lineman will cause issues. Deshaun Watson played well last year but he has to build on that and the offense as a whole needs to continue to eliminate the small mistakes and gain confidence.

The Browns aren’t a dumpster fire right now, yes they have been disappointing but other I think Cleveland is in a better place than many think. Close game but Washington barely wins, however Cleveland winning wouldn’t surprise me.” Commanders 31, Browns 30

Damon Wolfe: “It’s a tough matchup and I think this will be a very close one. In the end I think the difference is Jim Schwartz finding a way to make things more difficult on the rookie Jayden Daniels. The offense will finally cross the 20 point threshold as I expect Watson to have a solid performance through the air while the ground game doesn’t seem to have any life.” Browns 24, Commanders 23

Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.