Auburn vs. Georgia Prediction: Dawgs defense dominates

Much of college football depends on the luck of the schedule — or lack thereof. There couldn’t be a worse time for the Auburn Tigers to take on the Georgia Bulldogs this Saturday.

As the Tigers struggle to find their offensive rhythm, they face a Georgia team looking to bounce back from a tough loss to Alabama. It’s a recipe for trouble.

An upset seems unlikely, but can the Tigers keep up against a fired-up Bulldogs team? Check out our Auburn vs. Georgia prediction before placing your bets.

Auburn vs. Georgia betting preview

All Auburn vs. Georgia Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Saturday, October 5, 2024. CFN spread is from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  Georgia -23
• Spread
  Georgia -21
• Money line
  Georgia -1600, Auburn +900
• Over/Under
  50 points
• Playtime
  October 5, 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location
  Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia.
• Predicted weather at Kick
  81 degrees, sunny, six mile per hour wind
• Here’s how to watch
  ABC

The College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and the Vegas spread agreed here, as both have the Bulldogs as heavy favorites. With a 21-point lead and a total score of 50, Vegas is low on Auburn’s offense against the Bulldogs, meaning a final score in the 35-14 range.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

The line was originally at the elusive 24-point mark to start the week, but the money coming to the Tigers led to the Bulldogs getting back to an even game with three touchdowns on Saturday.

Auburn’s win probability

The football playoff meter is aligned with the Vegas line, making the Tigers 23.5 point underdogs. That translates to a minuscule 5.2% win probability, the Tigers’ second-lowest win probability with one game remaining, behind a 4.4% win probability in the Iron Bowl.

• in Georgia: 5.2%
• in Missouri: 8.3%
• in Kentucky 25.1%
• against Vanderbilt: 70.3%
• against UL-Monroe: 82.8%
• against Texas A&M: 38.1%
• in Alabama: 4.4%

Georgia’s probability of winning

Conversely, Georgia has a 94.8% chance of winning on Saturday. FPM seems to believe this is a break in the Bulldogs’ schedule between brutal games at Alabama last week and Texas later this season.

• against Auburn: 94.8%
• vs. Mississippi State: 98.9%
• in Texas: 37.4%
• against Florida: 94.5%
• at Ole Miss: 55.6%
• against Tennessee: 64.1%
• vs. UMass: 99.9%
• vs. Georgia Tech: 90.8%

Auburn vs Georgia Prediction

I’ve made my stance on Auburn’s situation pretty clear: It’s a mess. The same boosters who pushed out Bryan Harsin and forced the program to hire Hugh Freeze are now upset that Freeze didn’t land a top transfer quarterback.

Freeze seems to be shifting some of the blame onto his QBs, but no matter where you point the finger, the result is the same – this offense is a disaster. Even when Payton Thorne showed some life early against Oklahoma, it quickly faded and a disastrous fourth quarter sealed their fate.

Now they’ll try to stop the bleeding against…Georgia. To me, this game is less about beating the Bulldogs and more about Auburn fighting itself.

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Georgia will likely take care of business in a recovery period before entering a difficult period in October. The real question is whether Auburn will self-destruct or simply lose to a more talented team. From what I’ve heard on the broadcast, a meltdown is underway, and if Freeze switches quarterbacks again, things could quickly turn around on the plains.

Auburn’s defense is solid and Carson Beck might struggle with the same issues he faced against Alabama, but I don’t think the Tigers can hold out. If things go south, things could get ugly quickly. I would stay away from the total, but if you’re looking for a bet, consider betting on Auburn’s team total.

I support the Bulldogs in a loss, even if the game comes in under the total.

Forecast: Georgia 38, Auburn 7

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