UFC 307 Predictions – Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.: Fight card, odds, expert picks, preview, prelims

Alex Pereira looks to continue his run toward UFC legend status on Saturday when he puts his championship on the line against Khalil Rountree Jr. in the light heavyweight division UFC 307 main event. The fight is a clash of strong strikers with a total of 18 knockouts and 24 wins.

After Pereira won the middleweight title in just his fourth UFC fight, he relinquished the belt to Israel Adesanya. After the defeat, Pereira moved up to light heavyweight, where he won four victories, three of them by knockout, against former world champions and won the title.

Rountree enters Saturday on a five-fight win streak with four knockouts. He is the No. 8 ranked light heavyweight but wants to take advantage of the opportunity that came his way when the UFC needed an available competitor to get Pereira back in the Octagon in 2024.

The co-main event is also a title fight as Raquel Pennington will put the women’s bantamweight title on the line against former champion Julianna Pena. Pennington capped a six-fight winning streak by defeating Mayra Bueno Silva to capture the vacant title in her final outing. Pena is looking to bounce back from her title loss to the now-retired Amanda Nunes in her last fight.

With so much going on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before getting into our staff’s predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 307 fight card, odds

• Alex Pereira (c) -500 vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. +375, light heavyweight title
• Raquel Pennington (c) -170 vs. Julianna Pena +145, women’s bantamweight title
• Mario Bautista -135 vs. Jose Aldo +115, bantamweights
• Kevin Holland -170 vs. Roman Dolidze +145, middleweight
• Kayla Harrison -900 vs. Ketlen Vieira +600, women’s bantamweights
• Joaquin Buckley -210 vs. Stephen Thompson +175, welterweights
• Iasmin Lucindo -190 vs. Marina Rodriguez +160, women’s strawweight
• Cesar Almeida -400 vs. Ihor Potieira +310, middleweight
• Ryan Spann -340 vs. Ovince Saint Preux +265, light heavyweights
• Tecia Pennington -170 vs. Carla Esparza +145, women’s strawweight
• Tim Means -200 vs. Court McGee +170, welterweights

With such a massive main event coming up, the CBS Sports team continued with predictions and tips for the main card. Here are your favorites: Brent Brookhouse (martial arts journalist), Brian Campbell (martial arts journalist), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 307 tips, predictions

Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.

Campbell: While Rountree’s all-action style and striking ability make this fight potentially exciting for Pereira, this is far from a level fight. Pereira has only been a UFC fighter for three years, but his elite experience dwarfs Rountree’s, especially at the championship level. Rountree is a 12-year veteran of the Octagon but holds a 9-5 record overall. He poses no threat on the ground and is not the dynamic and creative striker that Pereira has proven himself to be. Look for Pereira to get closer to his goal and score a knockout result in the first two rounds.

Brookhouse: Rountree has the ability to win this fight because he hits hard and is aggressive enough to give himself a chance to land. The problem is that Pereira is such a good striker that he negates Rountree’s best attributes. Plus, no one believes Rountree is the best contender in the division. He is simply the man who was available if the UFC wanted to get Pereira back in the cage before the end of the year. Rountree is a live dog because of the classic “puncher chance,” but that’s not enough to make me pick him – which does have the whiff of famous last words.

Mahjouri: Rountree is more prepared for the UFC championship than ever before. Rountree’s five-fight winning streak is the best of his career. I’m worried it won’t be enough. Rountree is one of the hardest hitters in the light heavyweight division, but he is challenging arguably combat sports’ most decorated striker. Pereira is the only person to win UFC and Glory Kickboxing Championships in two different weight classes. Rountree’s poor punching accuracy is offset by his insane knockout power. Pereira is just as strong as Rountree, but offers more offensive weapons, better accuracy, and higher power. Rountree has the chance to be a top striker but will likely be stopped before the championship rounds.

Pennington vs. Pena

Campbell: Admittedly, hindering him is a difficult battle. Pena, a former champion, has not fought in two years since a one-sided loss to Amanda Nunes in a title rematch and is just 3-3 in the Octagon since 2017. Pennington, meanwhile, has only fought once per fight. She has grown a year in the past year and is 36 years old. Still, she etched her name in the history books by overtaking Mayra Bueno Silva to win the vacant title in January. The Silva fight was almost seen as a poor testament to how far behind the division has fallen, as neither fighter appeared to be performing at a championship level. But even as fans await Kayla Harrison’s impending emergence on the championship scene, Pennington is still the safer bet for promotion due to her stamina and the consistency of her shots. Pena can wrestle and is pretty aggressive on her feet. But her technique has always been flawed, which should leave room for the resilient Pennington to work her way to a decision.

Brookhouse: I just don’t think Pena will be consistently successful with her wrestling in this case. Her input is slow and usually obvious, and Pennington is good enough to avoid that kind of approach. From a distance perspective, Pennington will technically be the better striker and that will allow her to take advantage of Pena’s tendency to become a bit irresponsible defensively. No one should expect a thriller in this co-main event, but Pennington should be able to successfully defend the title.

Mahjouri: Pennington told CBS Sports that her coaches are begging her to release a vicious side. That would be refreshing to see from a fighter who has gone the distance more than 70% of the time. Pena is traditionally the more aggressive fighter and her shocking upset win over Amanda Nunes is more impressive than anything else on Pennington’s resume. Pena’s 26-month layoff is the second longest of her career, but she has often performed well after injury. Still, something tells me Pennington’s ability to control chaos will earn her enough rounds to retain the title by decision.

Aldo vs. Bautista

Campbell: We’re asking a lot of the 38-year-old Aldo to continue picking one prospect at a time as he looks to get closer to the idea of ​​another UFC title shot. Yes, Aldo has won four of his last five, the only loss coming against Merab Dvalishvili on his way to becoming bantamweight king. But Bautista is on a sneaky six-year winning streak and has advantages in both youth and size. Even though Aldo’s historically stingy takedown defense (which blocked all 16 of Dvalishvili’s attempts two years ago) keeps Bautista on his toes, the 31-year-old averages nearly twice as many strikes per round as Aldo. Expect a close and competitive affair, but one that Bautista can win.

Brookhouse: I don’t think Bautista is a bigger threat than Jonathan Martinez and Aldo, who beat up Martinez. Aldo’s takedown defense is too good – just look at the Dvalishvili fight for proof that Aldo’s takedown defense is still elite – to believe that Bautista will dominate through wrestling and ground work. As Campbell notes that Bautista lands an average of twice as many punches per round, please consider the strength of the resistance. Aldo has been fighting better opponents than Bautista ever has for about 15 years. It’s easy to look like a superstar when pitching AA. Aldo has been doing what he does in the major leagues for a decade and a half. Aldo is also much more technical and surgical with his punches. He still does so many little things in the hitting game at an elite level that he should be able to handle Bautista. The only thing to keep an eye on is whether a 38-year-old Aldo is affected by Saturday’s raise.

Mahjouri: Aldo, 38, is an absolute professional with very few holes. The former UFC featherweight champion defeated Jonathan Martinez after retiring. Aldo is 4-1 in his last five fights at bantamweight, with his only loss coming against current bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. Bautista is a legitimate contender with high striking power and solid takedowns. Bautista is very versatile, but you can’t be much more versatile than Aldo. I just don’t think Bautista has a dominant skill set that can overpower an all-time great. Give me Aldo by decision.

Who will win UFC 307 and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now for in-depth picks and analysis from the unparalleled expert who’s over $1,500 up on his UFC main card picks and find out.