Three keys to watch in the Padres-Dodgers series

This year’s MLB Division Series is full of exciting regional rivalries, including a battle between the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers and a showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets.

However, none of these teams have played each other in the postseason. This will be the third playoff series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in the last five years, and it will be a breeze – the Padres were just five games behind the first-place Dodgers in the NL West, which is the narrowest margin between the two teams in one of this round’s matchups.

Los Angeles defeated San Diego in the 2020 NLDS, but the Padres got revenge with a four-game win in the 2022 NLDS. Rubber play is scheduled to begin Saturday, with San Diego pitcher Dylan Cease set to face the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto .

Here’s a look at three storylines to keep track of which characters will make for a closely watched series.

Los Angeles has spent much of 2024 trying to put together a rotation with tape. Seventeen different pitchers started for the Dodgers this season (for comparison, the Padres only used eight starting pitchers). Injuries have been the primary cause of instability in Los Angeles, and many reports on the Dodgers’ pitching woes ignore the fact that the team’s best hurler – designated hitter Shohei Ohtani – is not pitching this season.

Overall, Los Angeles has a relatively high team ERA of 3.90 in the postseason (the Padres’ is 3.86). That’s actually a decrease from last year, but still nowhere near the team ERA of 3.02 in 2020 or 2.80 in 2022.

Yamamoto is expected to play in Game 1, with the acquisition of Jack Flaherty following at the trade deadline. After that it gets better extremely cloudy. Don’t be surprised if Dodgers manager Dave Roberts takes a gradual approach that suits the Tigers better. This is a man who gave three points to relief pitcher Ryan Brasier September finally begins as a prelude.

Initial evidence suggests that the answer to this question is “yes.” In San Diego’s wild card series against the Atlanta Braves, the All-Star center fielder went 3-for-7 with a double and a triple.

Is it unfair to place such expectations on a 21-year-old rookie? Of course, his experienced teammates also have to perform. Right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. needs to bring his wild-card momentum to Chavez Ravine, third baseman Manny Machado needs to be his usual future Hall of Fame self, and it would certainly help if catcher Kyle Higashioka continued his career year.

But look at Baseball Reference, and there in the column profiling the Padres’ year-over-year WAR leaders is Merrill – with a solid-for-anyone, great-for-a-rookie 4.4 next to his name. Fellow rookie outfielder Jackson Chourio pitched for the Milwaukee Brewers in their Wild Card Series loss and posted a .455 batting average with two home runs. If Merrill can do anything remotely similar, San Diego will be in business.

It’s wildly underrated, but the arrival of Los Angeles designated hitter Shohei Ohtani in the postseason is a major E-event that rivals any North American playoff debut this century – just think of the young Cleveland forward’s first appearance Cavaliers, LeBron James, after the season in 2006.

After spending years on miserable Los Angeles Angels teams, Ohtani was traded to the Dodgers this offseason and posted the following stats: .310/.390/.646 with 54 home runs, 130 RBIs and 59 stolen bases. At 30 years old, he is well within striking distance of the standards associated with automatic induction into the Hall of Fame.

How will Ohtani fare in this brave new world? The evidence suggests that everything is fine. In 55 plate appearances in 12 games against the Padres, the superstar hit .326/.400/.522 with one home run and seven RBIs.

What is perhaps most compelling about Ohtani’s debut is the fact that he will almost certainly face one of the greatest Japanese pitchers in history – and his teammate on Japan’s 2023 World Baseball Classic winning team – Yu Darvish. Darvish is slated to start Game 2 of the NLDS after going 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 78 strikeouts this season.

Ohtani, who told reporters in March that he modeled his game after Darvish, has only one hit in five plate appearances against the two-time lifetime Cy Young runner-up. Fans around the world will follow their fights closely.