Oregon vs. Michigan State Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

A new-look Big Ten matchup goes public as Michigan State takes on No. 6 Oregon on the West Coast on Friday night in Week 6 of college football. Let’s update our prediction for the game.

Michigan State University head coach Jonathan Smith is familiar with the Ducks, having coached at Oregon State before moving to the Big Ten and winning two of his seven games against Oregon in the Civil War.

The Spartans opened the season with three straight wins, but dropped games against Boston College and Ohio State and fell to 1-1 in Big Ten play and 3-2 overall, with big road games remaining, including against Iowa and Michigan .

Oregon got off to a bit of a slow start this season in two hard-fought games won by a combined 13 points, but rebounded with more dominant wins against Oregon State and UCLA and will be hoping for another strong performance when Ohio State visits Eugene next weekend a huge battle of the Big Ten begins.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what to look for when Oregon hosts Michigan State, along with our updated prediction for the game.

1. Make the barrel. Despite Oregon’s relative improvement on offense over the last two games, there is still inconsistent play on the line, albeit hampered by some injuries and rotation at the top when it comes to opening up rushing lanes, resulting in that the team ranked just 76th nationally in rushing production, good for 13th among 18 Big Ten teams.

2. Sparty can bring it. Oregon’s defense will be challenged by a Michigan State front seven that is a team strength, posting a solid 15 sacks and 35 tackles for loss so far this season. Khris Bogle and Anthony Jones are the line’s sack masters and linebacker Jordan Turner has three sacks.

3. Sales. Michigan State has struggled to hold onto the football this season, handing the ball off to its opponent 13 times this season and ranking third nationally in that category. Aidan Chiles’ 8 interceptions are a big part of that, and the Spartans rank 126th in FBS with a minus-1.4 turnover margin per game and 128th with a minus-7 overall margin.

Most analytical models are on the side of the Ducks over the Spartans this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Oregon is expected to win the game in 92.5 percent of the computer’s latest simulations.

That leaves Michigan State as the expected winner in the remaining 7.5 percent of the Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Oregon is projected to be 22.7 points better than Michigan State with both teams’ current makeup on the same field.

More… Oregon vs. Spartans Prediction: What the Analysis Says

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Oregon is the 23.5-point favorite against Michigan State.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 52.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -2500 for Oregon and +1200 for Michigan State.

A slim majority of bets are expecting the Ducks to defeat the Spartans, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

About 52 percent of bettors expect Oregon to win the game and cover the wide point spread.

And the remaining 48 percent of bets think the Spartans will get it closer than the odds suggest.

Jonathan Smith still has Michigan State in the rebuilding process, and while his efforts on the defensive side of the ball have been admirable so far, this offense’s inability to keep up with the Ducks’ skill threats will prove too great.

Whatever issues Oregon may have running the ball in transition behind a line and against a decent Spartans front, it still has Dillon Gabriel, a prolific 82 percent passer, fending off a rotation of receivers , which MSU’s back seven should handle with ease.

College football headquarters chooses…

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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