The third presidential election since the Arab Spring will take place in Tunisia on Sunday

TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) — With his main opponents jailed or barred from voting, there is little standing in the way of Tunisian President Kais Saied winning re-election on Sunday, five years after his first term was met with anti-establishment backlash had to fight.

The Oct. 6 presidential election in the North African country is the third since protests that led to the ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011 – the first autocrat to be toppled in the Arab Spring uprisings that also swept leaders in Egypt and Libya and Yemen fell.

International observers praised the previous two contests as conforming to democratic norms. But a series of arrests and actions by an election authority appointed by Saied have raised questions about whether this year’s race is free and fair. And opposition parties have called for a boycott.

What is at stake?

Not long ago, Tunisia was hailed as the Arab Spring’s sole success story. As coups, counter-revolutions and civil wars rocked the region, the North African country adopted a new democratic constitution and saw its leading civil society groups win the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering political compromises.

But the new leaders were unable to stimulate the struggling economy and were plagued by political infighting and episodes of violence and terrorism.

Against this backdrop, Saied, then 61 years old and a political outsider, won his first term in office in 2019. He made it to a runoff and promised to usher in a “New Tunisia” and give more power to young people and local governments.

This year’s election will provide a glimpse into public opinion about the direction Tunisia’s fading democracy has taken since Saied took office.

Saied’s supporters appear to have remained loyal to him and his promise to transform Tunisia. But he is not affiliated with any political party and it is unclear how much support he has among Tunisians.

It is the first presidential race since Saied upended the country’s politics in July 2021, declaring a state of emergency, firing its prime minister, suspending parliament and rewriting Tunisia’s constitution to consolidate his own power.

These actions outraged pro-democracy groups and leading opposition parties, who called them a coup. But despite the anger of career politicians, voters approved Saied’s new constitution in a low-turnout referendum the following year.

Authorities then began arresting Saied’s critics, including journalists, lawyers, politicians and civil society representatives, accusing them of endangering state security and violating a controversial anti-fake news law that observers say restricts dissent suppressed.

Due to economic problems and widespread political apathy, fewer voters took part in parliamentary and local elections in 2022 and 2023.

Who is running?

Many wanted to challenge Saied, but few could.

Seventeen potential candidates submitted their applications and the Tunisian electoral authority approved only three: Saied, Zouhair Maghzaoui and Ayachi Zammel.

Maghzaoui is a veteran politician who has campaigned against Saied’s economic program and recent political arrests. Yet he is loathed by opposition parties because he supports Saied’s constitution and previous moves to consolidate power.

Zammel is a businessman supported by politicians who are not boycotting the race. During the campaign, he was sentenced to prison on four counts of voter fraud related to signatures his team collected to qualify for the vote.

Others had hoped to run but were prevented from doing so. The election agency, known as ISIE, last month rejected a court ruling that had ordered it to reinstate three other challengers.

Since many of them have been arrested, imprisoned or sentenced for political activities, even Tunisia’s most prominent opposition figures are not taking part.

This includes the 83-year-old leader of Tunisia’s most organized political party, Ennahda, which came to power after the Arab Spring. Rached Ghannouchi, co-founder of the Islamist party and former speaker of the Tunisian House of Representatives, has been in prison since last year after criticizing Saied.

Also involved in the crackdown is one of Ghannouchi’s most vocal critics: Abir Moussi, a right-wing lawmaker known for railing against Islamists and expressing nostalgia for pre-Arab Spring Tunisia. The 49-year-old president of the Free Destourian Party was also jailed last year after criticizing Saied.

Other lesser-known politicians who claimed to be running have also since been jailed or convicted on similar charges.

Opposition groups have called for a boycott of the race. The National Salvation Front – a coalition of secular and Islamist parties including Ennahda – has denounced the process as a fraud and questioned the legitimacy of the election.

What are the other problems?

The country’s economy continues to face major challenges. Despite Saied’s promise to chart a new course for Tunisia, unemployment has risen steadily, reaching 16%, one of the highest levels in the region, with young Tunisians hit particularly hard.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, growth has been slow and Tunisia continues to rely on multilateral lenders such as the World Bank and the European Union. Today Tunisia owes them more than $9 billion. Aside from agrarian reform, Saied’s overarching economic strategy is unclear.

Negotiations over a $1.9 billion rescue package offered by the International Monetary Fund in 2022 have long been stalled. Saied was unwilling to accept its terms, which include restructuring indebted state-owned companies and cutting public wages. Some of the IMF’s requirements – including ending subsidies on electricity, flour and fuel – would likely be met with resentment by Tunisians who rely on their low costs.

Economic analysts say foreign and local investors are reluctant to invest in Tunisia due to ongoing political risks and a lack of assurances.

The economic hardship has two implications for one of Tunisia’s central political issues: migration. From 2019 to 2023, more and more Tunisians attempted to emigrate to Europe without authorization. Meanwhile, Saied’s government is cracking down on migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, many of whom are stuck in Tunisia while trying to reach Europe.

Saied motivated his followers in early 2023 by accusing migrants of violence and crime and portraying them as part of a conspiracy to change the country’s demographics. The anti-migrant rhetoric led to extreme violence against migrants and a crackdown by authorities. Over the past year, security forces have targeted migrant communities from the coast to the capital with a series of arrests, deportations to the desert and the demolition of tent camps in Tunis and coastal towns.

Bodies continue to wash up on Tunisia’s coast as boats carrying Tunisians and migrants from sub-Saharan Africa only make it a few nautical miles before sinking.

What does it mean abroad?

Tunisia maintained relations with its traditional Western allies, but also forged new partnerships under Saied.

Similar to many populist leaders who have taken power around the world, Saied emphasizes Tunisia’s sovereignty and liberation from what he calls “foreign dictates.” He has insisted that Tunisia will not become a “border guard” for Europe, which has sought agreements with him to better police the Mediterranean.

Tunisia and Iran lifted visa requirements and announced plans to expand trade relations in May. In addition, the country has accepted millions of dollars in loans to build hospitals, stadiums and ports under China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Nevertheless, European countries remain Tunisia’s main trading partners, and their leaders maintain productive relations with Saied and welcome agreements to manage migration as a “model” for the region.

Saied has spoken out vehemently in support of the Palestinians amid war in the Middle East and opposed moves to normalize diplomatic ties with Israel.