The third presidential election since the Arab Spring will take place in Tunisia on Sunday

TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) — While his main opponents have been jailed or barred from the election, Tunisia’s president Kais Saied There are few obstacles to winning re-election on Sunday, five years later Riding on anti-establishment backlash to a first term.

October 6th of the North African country Presidential election is the third since protests that led to the president’s ouster in 2011 Zine El Abidine Ben Ali – the first autocrat was toppled in the Arab Spring uprisings, which also toppled leaders in Egypt, Libya and Yemen.

International observers praised the previous two contests as conforming to democratic norms. However, a series of arrests and measures taken by an electoral authority appointed by Saied Questions raised about whether this year’s race is free and fair. And opposition parties have called for a boycott.

What is at stake?

Not long ago, Tunisia was hailed as the Arab Spring’s sole success story. As coups, counter-revolutions and civil wars shocked the regionthe North African nation anchored a new one democratic constitution and saw its leading civil society groups win the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering political compromises.

But the new leaders were unable to give it a boost difficult economy and were plagued by political power struggles Episodes of violence and terrorism.

Against this backdrop, the then 61-year-old Saied, a political outsider, won his first term in office in 2019 advanced to the runoff election promised to usher in a “New Tunisia” and give more power to young people and local governments.

This year’s election will provide a glimpse into public opinion about the direction Tunisia’s fading democracy has taken since Saied took office.

Saied’s supporters appear to have remained loyal to him and his promise to transform Tunisia. But he is not affiliated with any political party and it is unclear how much support he has among Tunisians.

It is the first presidential race since Saied turned the country’s politics on its head July 2021He declared a state of emergency, fired his prime minister, suspended parliament and rewrote Tunisia’s constitution to consolidate his own power.

These actions outraged pro-democracy groups and leading opposition parties, who called them a coup. But despite the anger of professional politicians and voters approved Saied’s new constitution the following year in a referendum with low voter turnout.

Authorities then began arresting Saied’s critics Journalists, Lawyerspoliticians and Civil society personalitiesThey accuse them of endangering state security and violating a controversial anti-fake news law that observers say stifles dissent.

Due to economic problems and widespread political apathy, fewer voters took part in parliamentary and local elections in 2022 and 2023.

Who is running?

Many wanted to challenge Saied, but few could.

Seventeen potential candidates have submitted their application documents to the Tunisian electoral authority only three approved: Saied, Zouhair Maghzaoui and Ayachi Zammel.

Maghzaoui is a veteran politician who has campaigned against Saied’s economic program and recent political arrests. Yet he is loathed by opposition parties because he supports Saied’s constitution and previous moves to consolidate power.

Zammel is a businessman supported by politicians who are not boycotting the race. During the election campaign he… was sentenced to prison on four counts of voter fraud related to signatures his team collected to qualify for the vote.

Other had hoped to run, but was prevented. The Electoral authority, known as ISIE, last month threw out a court ruling that ordered the reinstatement of three other challengers.

Since many of them have been arrested, imprisoned or sentenced for political activities, even Tunisia’s most prominent opposition figures are not taking part.

This includes the 83-year-old leader of Tunisia’s best-organized political party Ennahdawho came to power after the Arab Spring. Rached GhannouchiCo-founder of the Islamist party and former speaker of the House of Representatives of Tunisia locked up since last year after criticism of Saied.

One of Ghannouchi’s most vocal critics is also involved in the crackdown: Abir Moussia right-wing lawmaker known for railing against Islamists and expressing nostalgia for pre-Arab Spring Tunisia. So was the 49-year-old president of the Free Destourian Party locked up last year after he criticized Saied.

Other lesser-known politicians who were running were already running have since been imprisoned or sentenced because of similar allegations.

Opposition groups have called for a boycott of the race. The National Salvation Front – a coalition of secular and Islamist parties, including Ennahda – did this condemned the process as a fraud and questioned the legitimacy of the election.

What are the other problems?

That of the country Business continues to face big challenges. Despite Saied’s promise to chart a new course for Tunisia, unemployment has risen steadily, reaching 16%, one of the highest levels in the region, with young Tunisians hit particularly hard.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, growth has been slow and Tunisia continues to rely on multilateral lenders such as the World Bank and the European Union. Today Tunisia owes them more than $9 billion. Aside from agrarian reform, Saied’s overarching economic strategy is unclear.

Negotiations over a $1.9 billion rescue package offered by the International Monetary Fund in 2022 have long been stalled. Saied was unwilling to accept its terms, which include restructuring indebted state-owned companies and cutting public wages. Some of the IMF’s requirements – including ending subsidies on electricity, flour and fuel – would likely be met with resentment by Tunisians who rely on their low costs.

Economic analysts say foreign and local investors are reluctant to invest in Tunisia due to ongoing political risks and a lack of assurances.

The economic hardship has two implications for one of Tunisia’s central political issues: migration. From 2019 to 2023, more and more Tunisians attempted to emigrate to Europe without authorization. Meanwhile, Saied’s government has cracked down on migrants arriving from sub-Saharan Africa, and many of them have done so were stuck in Tunisia trying to reach Europe.

Saied thrilled his followers at the beginning of 2023 They accuse migrants of violence and crime and portraying them as part of a conspiracy to change the country’s demographics. The anti-migrant rhetoric led to extreme violence against migrants and a crackdown by authorities. Last yearSecurity forces made a series of arrests targeting migrant communities from the coast to the capital. Deportation to the desert and the demolition of tent camps in Tunis and coastal towns.

Body continues to wash ashore on the coast of Tunisia as boats carrying Tunisians and migrants from sub-Saharan Africa only make it a few nautical miles before sinking.

What does it mean abroad?

Tunisia maintained relations with its traditional Western allies, but also forged new partnerships under Saied.

Similar to many populist leaders who have taken power around the world, Saied emphasizes Tunisia’s sovereignty and liberation from what he calls “foreign dictates.” He has insisted that Tunisia will not become a “border guard” for Europe, which has sought agreements with him to better police the Mediterranean.

Tunisia and Iran lifted visa requirements and announced plans to expand trade relations in May. In addition, the country has accepted millions of dollars in loans to build hospitals, stadiums and ports under China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Nevertheless, European countries remain Tunisia’s main trading partners, and their leaders maintain productive relations with Saied and welcome agreements to manage migration as a “model” for the region.

Saied has spoken out vehemently in support of the Palestinians amid war in the Middle East and opposed moves to normalize diplomatic ties with Israel.