Navy vs. Air Force College Football Week 6 Prediction, Picks and Odds

You may be wondering, “Why is Covers doing a post on Navy vs. Air Force prediction?”

Let me tell you why. The biggest trend in sports betting, that’s why! The Service Academy Unders are back, baby!

Although this trend is reflected in the overall numbers and the numbers are at an all-time low, my college football picks are still focused squarely on the under as the Midshipmen travel to the Air Force Academy on Saturday, October 5th, to face the Falcons.

Prediction between Navy and Air Force

My best choice
Under 35.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

For the uninitiated, the under is 44-9-1 in the last 54 meetings between the Service Academy programs (Air Force Falcons, Army Black Knights and Navy Midshipmen). That’s a cash rate of 83%, which is essentially unheard of in sports betting.

But let’s start with a quick overview of why this trend is occurring.

All three programs run the triple option or some form of it, which means a lot of football is played. These programs also have continuity.

Coaches tend to have long tenures and these teams don’t use the transfer portal like others. That means the players know very well how to lead and defend these offenses, and the end result is a lot of four-yard runs and a clock that’s constantly turning when these teams face off.

Now you might say things like, “How can you use data from a game in 2014 to predict a result in 2024?” or “Odds makers have adjusted and the value is completely gone!”

These things are true in a sense and I would never recommend placing a bet solely on the trend. I argue that the oddsmakers may not be able to adjust these totals sufficiently.

Let’s take a look at the last four seasons. Prior to 2020, it was normal to see these totals in the upper 40s and low 50s, and it’s only in the last four seasons that we’re starting to see the dramatic shift in Service Academy totals.

The average overall rating over the last four seasons (12 games) in Service Academy matchups was 36.5. So the books have definitely adapted. Despite this, the Over has only scored once in these 12 games. That was Army-Navy two seasons ago, a game that was tied at the end of regulation before a series of touchdowns in overtime ended the game.

The average point total of those 12 games is 25.3 points, with only one of the games exceeding 30 points, a 40-7 win by Air Force in 2020. So there is still a discrepancy in the totals and points scored in those Encounters.

Other defenses of the over might include: “Navy looks more explosive this season” or “Air Force looks overpowering.” Well, even if Navy looks more explosive, they still have the upper hand 80% of the time.

Meanwhile, the Air Force was the Service Academies class for a few seasons. In 2022, they collected more than 40 points in three of their four games prior to this matchup. As 14-point favorites, they won 13:10.

Even last season, the Falcons were 10.5-point favorites against the Midshipmen and won 17-6, and were 18.5-point favorites against Army and lost 23-3.

Put simply, previous season results and large spreads don’t seem to matter when it comes to Service Academies playing low-scoring games against each other.

Sure, the overs should start batting soon. The law of averages, etc. But jumping on the over based on a perceived advantage to create a controversy seems more foolish than backing up this trend with solid data.

This duel in particular has failed in three matches in a row. The total points scored were 23, 23 and 26. I bet on Under 35.5 and would still bet on 34.5.

Navy vs. Air Force in the same game (SGP)

Navy clearly appears to be the superior team heading into this matchup. The Midshipmen are a perfect 4-0. That includes an overall win as a 9-point underdog against Memphis. They’ve done this despite an offense that scores 46 points per game and ranks fourth nationally in winning percentage.

Quarterback Blake Horvath was one of the main reasons for that. It may sound a little counterintuitive, but a great QB is essential to executing the triple option. Can you do the right reading quickly?

However, being a big favorite hasn’t played a big role in Service Academy matches lately.

As mentioned, Air Force has been the best in this group for the past few seasons and has been favored by at least one touchdown in the Service Academy’s last four games. They only made it once, losing outright to Army last year. In fact, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five times this series has scored a touchdown or more.

In addition, it is generally assumed that with such a low overall value you are more likely to choose a double-digit dog.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Quotas between the Navy and the Air Force

Navy vs Air Force live odds

Navy vs. Air Force opening odds

• Expansion between the Navy and Air Force: Air Force +8
• Money line between the Navy and the Air Force: Navy -275, Air Force +350
• Navy vs. Air Force over/under: 36.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Navy-Air Force Spread and Over/Under Analysis

• Air Force opened this matchup against Navy as an 8-point home underdog and was bet as high as +10 depending on the book.
• It appears the Air Force, in a rebuilding year and stationed at 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, is on the outside looking in when it comes to the service academies. Navy enters this game 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. For what it’s worth, Army enters this week 4-0 SU/ATS.
• However, this series has featured double-digit underdogs three times in the last two seasons, and the underdog is 2-1 ATS in those games.
• The total was 36.5 and was reduced to 34.5 before midweek. Over money brought it back to the opening number.

Things to know about the “Navy vs. Air Force” betting trend.

The under is 44-9-1 in the last 54 meetings between the Service Academy programs. Find more college football betting trends for Navy vs. Air Force.

Information about the Navy vs. Air Force game

Recent Navy vs. Air Force Violations

Weather between Navy and Air Force

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