3 Keys, Iowa State Football vs. Baylor Score Prediction (Oct. 5, 2024)

ISU’s defense will stoop as usual and a balanced offense will keep the beleaguered Bears at bay

AMES — All of Iowa State football’s lofty goals — including competing for a Big 12 title — remain fully in play, but a hiccup Saturday night would significantly diminish those ambitions.

Baylor has presented itself as a team that finds ways to lose close games, and ISU has established itself as a team that can thrive in those tight situations. This trend must continue if the cyclones hope to remain on track through November and beyond, in what could be a historic month.

Despite their recent struggles, the Bears have the playmakers on both sides of the ball to pull off a big surprise. Simply put: The Cyclones, seeking a first-ever conference title, cannot afford to be seen as double-digit favorites on national television (Fox) if they expect to have a shot at getting into AT&T Stadium, aka “Jerry World.” the conference championship game on December 7th.

Here are three keys to the 16th-ranked Cyclones (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) win over the Bears (2-3, 0-2).

1. Make it a meal

The Cyclones showcased their rushing offensive capabilities earlier this season, scoring four touchdowns on drives lasting a minute or less.

But lately, ISU has found success in the run game, which is its preferred method of paving the way to winning games. As Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said this week, the Cyclones try to “slow you down” by extending drives that limit opposing offenses’ time on the field.

Houston’s offense played just 47 plays last week and ISU owned the football for nearly 10 minutes longer than the Cougars. That’s largely because the Cyclones rushed for more than 230 yards in their second straight game for the first time since 2021.

This week they face a Bears rushing defense that is allowing 141.2 yards per game, which is slightly better than Houston, so there should be opportunities to shorten the game.

2. Store them underneath

Baylor ranks fourth in the Big 12 with 22 pass plays of more than 20 yards, leaving ISU’s cornerbacks and safeties facing their biggest challenge of the season.

The Bears have three top players – Josh Cameron, Hal Presley, Monaray Baldwin and Ashtyn Hawkins – who can put a vertical strain on a defense at any time. Baylor is also banged up and inconsistent running the football, which could force quarterback Sawyer Robertson to make deeper throws.

However, this strategy is unlikely to bear much fruit as ISU leads the league in fewest passes allowed with six passes of 20 or more yards. The Cyclones are also the only team in the Big 12 that hasn’t allowed at least one reception for 40 yards this season.

3. Diversify the passing game

It’s rare for an ISU tight end to not make a single catch in a game, but that’s exactly what happened in last week’s win at Houston.

It didn’t matter against the Cougars, but it might against Baylor. Sophomore standout Ben Brahmer was banged up early in the season but can serve as a key to the Cyclones’ offense when healthy. His three catches for 73 yards in the 52-7 win over Arkansas State opened up more downfield opportunities for star senior wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel and also created an easier box that ISU’s running backs took advantage of throughout the day .

Talented transfers Eli Green and Isaiah Alston have yet to pair up with quarterback Rocco Becht, as has 6-foot-11 redshirt freshman speedster Beni Ngoyi, who has just two catches for 27 yards. The Bears’ secondary is good enough to cover Noel and Higgins and hope Becht’s other options stay quiet.

Iowa State vs. Baylor Prediction

It’s been a wild and demoralizing two weeks for the Bears, who blew a 14-point lead in a 38-31 overtime loss at Colorado and then fell 21-0 to No. 17 BYU last weekend before rallying again in a furious one Rally, which failed with a setback of 34:28.

The Cyclones routinely weathered occasional adversity by making crucial plays at crucial moments to earn their first 4-0 start in 24 years.

So what happens on Saturday evening? More of the same for both teams. ISU’s defense will stoop as usual and a balanced offense will keep the beleaguered Bears at bay.

Iowa State 31, Baylor 16

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