This small group of late deciders could have a decisive influence on the election

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a tight race, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. There is less than a month until voting ends. The Democratic and Republican candidates have clear and distinct advantages among different groups of voters as people have started going to the polls in several states.

Among likely voters, Harris leads Trump by two points — 50 percent to 48 percent, within the margin of error. The Republican candidate is now four points ahead among independent voters. That’s a group that President Joe Biden won by 15 points in 2020.

“This is an absolutely razor-thin race. “No room for error,” said Republican strategist Kevin Madden. “The group of undecided voters is getting smaller every day.”

Those numbers remain virtually unchanged from last month’s poll, which was conducted before the candidates’ first and only presidential debate. Despite the historically late shakeup at the top of the Democratic Party, few events are likely to dramatically impact perceptions of Harris and Trump at this point.

Eight out of 10 registered voters say they are completely made up and nothing will change their vote.

The gap between gender and education is widening

The survey also found that the gender gap has widened since the 2020 election. Fifty-seven percent of men in that poll say they will vote for Trump, giving him a 16-point lead over Harris. Four years ago, Trump beat Biden among men by just five points, according to AP VoteCast voter polls.

Likewise, 58 percent of women support Harris, an 18-point lead over Trump, versus Biden’s 12-point lead among that group in 2020.

The gap along educational levels has also widened over the last four years. In the poll, 54 percent of likely voters without a college degree said they plan to vote for Trump, a 10-point lead over Harris and more than double the 4-point lead Trump had in 2020, according to Data from AP VoteCast.

Among college-educated likely voters, Harris has a 21-point lead (60 percent to 39 percent) over Trump, up from a 16-point difference in the 2020 election.

At the same time, candidates’ support margins among various racial groups have narrowed since the 2020 election as both candidates have worked to expand their bases.

Biden’s lack of support among non-white voters earlier this year was a major concern for Democrats and encouraged the president to drop out of the race in June. While Harris has seen growing support among voters of color over the past month, she still hasn’t fully rebuilt the coalition of those voters that Biden won in 2020.

Harris has the support of 61 percent of non-white registered voters, extending her lead over Trump to 25 points in this latest poll from 10 points last month. She is still 12 points behind the 73 percent who voted for Biden in 2020, according to AP VoteCast data.

Their support among black voters has increased nine points in the last month, putting them within that group’s margin of error. 83 percent now say they would vote for her. Seventeen percent of Black voters support Trump, twice as many as in 2020.

According to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, eight in 10 registered voters say they are completely made up and nothing will change their votes. Compilation of photos by David Dee Delgado/Reuters

Meanwhile, Trump’s support among white registered voters has risen three points since last month: 53 percent said they would vote for him, compared to 44 percent for Harris. He won white voters by a 12-point margin in 2020.

Trump’s 13-point lead among likely voters, who are white women without college degrees, should be a warning sign for Harris, Madden said. They are a key voter bloc in some of their must-win blue-wall states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

“This could be a crucial, crucial demographic,” Madden said, which is why Harris has focused on reproductive rights to boost voter turnout.

The overwhelming majority say their voting decision is set in stone

Presidential campaigns will spend a lot of time and money over the next five weeks trying to win support from the remaining 20 percent of voters who say they are still impressionable. In this poll, 15 percent of registered voters say they have a good idea of ​​who they will support but could still change their mind, and 5 percent say they have not yet decided who to vote for.

The number of self-described undecided voters is both concerning and an opportunity, said Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir, who managed Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign. That’s why Harris has run as an underdog since she was nominated as the Democrat in July, he added.

There are still “too many” unsure voters, he said, but that makes sense because they want to learn more about a relatively new Democratic candidate.

“There is a chance of winning it,” Shakir said. “The fact that they are insecure is a better place to be than them being against you.”

But as Harris struggles with Trump’s strategy to exclude her from the mainstream, Madden said, she is running out of time to define herself.

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“She has exactly one month to ask many of these voters what she would do differently [Biden] administration,” he said.

“She has the argument for change [on] her side because she is not Joe Biden; She is a new person,” Shakir said. “But to fully complete the case for change, you have to convince people that you are going to intervene and take action.”

This small group of late deciders can influence the election, and Harris should focus on convincing them that she will enter the Oval Office “like a ball of fire” and focus on their lives and concerns, he said.

Vivian Hoang contributed reporting.

PBS News, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a poll from September 27 to October 1 that included 1,628 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, 1,514 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points and 1,294 likely voters Voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.