Will the Iranian missile attack deter Israeli military action in Lebanon?

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s long-standing policy of “strategic patience” appears to be losing steam. At the end of July, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was believed to have been killed an Israeli bombing in Tehran, Hours after attending the swearing-in of reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian. On the same day, the body of senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr was located dug out of the rubble of a building in southern Beirut that was leveled by an Israeli airstrike.

Both men were senior figures within the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” – a network of armed groups stretching from the Gulf of Aden to the Gaza Strip and including Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria and – more importantly – belong to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The weeks flew by, and the anonymous words of Iranian officials splashed across the news channels. Iran and its allies are, they said Refrain from hasty revenge promised by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the hours after Haniyeh’s assassination – in the hope, they claimed, of finally reaching a ceasefire in the ruins of Gaza.

These hopes were dashed along with half a dozen homes collapsed on Hezbollah headquarters in southern Beirut destroyed by Israeli air strikes last Friday. The attack killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who had led the Shiite militant group for more than three decades. Abbas Nilforushan, a prominent commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, was also killed in the attack. A few days later, Iranian ballistic missiles burned over Israel’s skies.

Losing faith

Although Israel and its allies say they have shot down most of the roughly 180 missiles fired at Israeli air bases and other military targets, Iranian state media said the attack was the first to involve a series of hypersonic missiles were used – which, if true, would represent a worrying escalation since the largely symbolic drone and missile fire against the Islamic Republic in April.

Joseph Daher, author of “Hezbollah: The Political Economy of Lebanon’s Party of God,” said Iran’s decision to once again launch a direct attack on Israeli soil – one that he said would have little impact on the country’s military capabilities have had – probably used more and have more than one purpose.

“We need to understand this ‘retaliation’ by Iran in two ways,” he said. “First, as a way to reaffirm a form of deterrence against Israel and in response to Israel’s numerous attacks directly against Iran or against Iran-linked targets.” And second, to maintain this connection in the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” by acting in favor of Tehran’s network of influence in the region – particularly Hezbollah. Because criticism grew among Hezbollah’s population base, which basically asked: “What is Iran doing about the increasing attacks, about this escalation of violence against Lebanon?” However, this “retaliation” will not stop Israel’s war against Lebanon.”

Read moreHow will Israel react?

Although Iran has so far avoided direct confrontation with Israel since the October 7 Hamas attacks and the Netanyahu government’s brutal response in Gaza, Israel’s abrupt escalation against the Tehran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon has come at a high price for continued inaction of the Islamic Republic demanded.

Suleiman Mourad, a professor of religion and Middle Eastern studies at Smith College, said Iran’s policy of “strategic patience” may put the Islamic Republic at risk of no longer being able to rely on the Shiite militias that have supported it for so many years .

“Delay tactics can backfire, particularly when circumstances arise and those that you depend on to give you that kind of depth, the axis of resistance so to speak, collapse,” he said. “I think Iran is aware of that, and part of the retaliation is essentially to emphasize, ‘We’re still committed to our allies in the region, we’re not going to just abandon them.’ [punished] as we sit in Tehran and Qom, drinking tea and just… holding ceremonies to commemorate their deaths.”

Sending a message

Hamid Talebian, a doctoral student at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) who studies transnational Shiite networks and Iranian foreign policy, said Tuesday’s rocket attack was more than a symbolic response to Israel’s escalation.

“At the military level, the Iranians wanted to signal to the Israelis that they are ready to use their more advanced missiles – for example ballistic Fattah-1 – that can bypass Israeli air defenses,” he said.

Daher said Israel’s increasingly violent attacks against Hezbollah and other members of the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” reflected U.S. interest in curbing Tehran’s regional influence.

“This is happening with direct US cooperation and support, and not just consent – ​​the US also has a direct interest in weakening Hezbollah, an Iran-linked network, and also Iran,” he said.

“For example, they received a green light from the US for all their actions in Lebanon, which violated all sorts of red lines,” he added. “And most likely for Iran too… You cannot on the one hand say that you are putting all your strength behind a ceasefire and at the same time continue to support Israel militarily, economically and politically in its various wars.”

By raising the stakes of U.S. support for Israel, Mourad said, Tehran likely hoped to put pressure on the White House to rein in its closest Middle East ally.

“If Iran wants to achieve something, it is to force Europe – to a lesser extent because Europe no longer has any muscle – but also US foreign policy makers to recalculate,” he said. “Because if Israel retaliated on a larger scale, it would drive Iran into a corner. I say again that Iran does not want war, but that does not mean Iran cannot wage war.”

Go nuclear

Even more dangerous than the threat of all-out conventional war in the Middle East, however, is the specter of nuclear escalation. Talebian said Israel’s months-long escalation may have already convinced the Iranian government to move forward with its efforts Pursuit of nuclear weapons – Weapons that could provide the regime with an obvious deterrent.

“The decision to switch to nuclear power may already have been made,” he said. “Israeli forces have bypassed virtually all red lines and the deterrent capabilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been significantly compromised.” This has given elites who have advocated for further nuclear progress the opportunity to set their agenda.”

Daher said Tehran was unlikely to risk further weakening its negotiating position with the US, which continues to play a role alongside the EU and the UK debilitating sanctions to the Iranian economy.

“They will pursue nuclear capabilities regardless of Israel’s attacks, but this will definitely make them more determined to continue to achieve nuclear capabilities, as this will be particularly beneficial in future negotiations with the US,” he said.

“We must understand that Iran’s main goal since October 7 has not been to liberate Palestine or directly help Hamas, but to achieve a better geopolitical position in the region through its influence networks in future negotiations with the US. “especially with regard to a nuclear agreement or sanctions. And that strategy was significantly challenged by Israel’s escalation of violence against Lebanon and the weakening of Hezbollah and Hamas, and Iran had to take action against Tel Aviv.”

Read moreHow Israel might respond to Iran’s drone and missile attack

Any Israeli attack on Iran’s allies appears to force Tehran into an impossible choice: either respond in kind and see its retaliation used to justify — not to mention threaten — increasingly damaging economic and military retaliation from Israel a direct US intervention – or stand by and watch its networks across the region break beyond repair. But Talebian said Iran could rely on more than just a loose group of militias.

“We shouldn’t forget Russia,” he said. “They will not stand by as the Iranian regime is overthrown or even severely crippled, especially in the event of a US-led retaliation.” They have formed a strategic partnership with the Islamic Republic since the start of the war in Ukraine and therefore will not become a major one Tolerate escalation if it diminishes Iranian support in its large-scale war against Ukraine.”

Ultimately, Talebian said, the men, women and children still being killed in the fighting in Gaza and now Lebanon will pay the price for this escalation.

“The most significant consequence of this escalation for civilians is a further obstacle to a ceasefire on the front lines in Gaza and Lebanon,” he said. “The Iranian regime ultimately had to respond, and this will serve as further justification for the right-wing Israeli government to further increase the IDF’s aggression.”