What happens between now and Election Day after Jack Smith files?

Topline

Special counsel Jack Smith’s damning report detailing former President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election was released Wednesday, marking the start of a major decision on how to move forward with federal criminal proceedings against Trump’s post-election efforts can – and that is still unclear Regardless of how much will be decided by election day, the ex-president’s lawyers will have a busy month with Trump’s civil and criminal cases.

Timeline

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News Peg

Chutkan released Smith’s extensive filing Wednesday outlining prosecutors’ case against Trump after deciding what to redact from the public record. The document uses new evidence to argue why the government’s charges against Trump are consistent with the Supreme Court’s decision granting the ex-president immunity from charges based on his “official actions” in office, with prosecutors claiming that all of the behavior in question was due to Trump as a political candidate and private citizen, and not as president. Chutkan must now decide, based on the filing, which charges, if any, are consistent with the Supreme Court’s decision and can be pursued. The filing contains a number of new allegations regarding the ex-president’s post-election efforts. It details how Trump made allegations of fraud despite being told repeatedly and seemingly knowing they were false. He allegedly said he had to “fight” regardless “whether….” [he] won or lost the election” – and that the people around him also didn’t believe his claims of fraud, but propagated them anyway. The filing also details Trump’s attempts to pressure then-Vice President Mike Pence to refuse to certify the election and his anger at Pence when the vice president refused. Prosecutors claimed that Pence needed to be moved to a safe location when an aide told Trump during the Jan. 6 attack, Trump responded, “So what?”

What comes after election day?

Trump’s legal schedule will not slow down after Election Day until the end of the year. In addition to Chutkan’s pending decision on how the federal election allegations fit with the immunity ruling and the ongoing appeal in the documents case, Trump is also facing sentencing after being convicted of 34 felonies in Manhattan. This is scheduled for November 26th after New York Judge Juan Merchan postponed the date until after the election to avoid any appearance of partisan bias. Trump is also awaiting a New York appeals court’s decision on whether the verdict holding Trump and his associates liable for fraudulent misrepresentation of assets will stand after appeals judges expressed skepticism about the verdict and the more than $450 fine imposed on Trump Millions of US dollars had been ordered to pay. It’s unclear when that ruling will come, but it will likely be several months after the court hears arguments last week.

What we don’t know

How the election will affect Trump’s cases – because if Trump wins in November, these next few months will likely mark the end of at least some of his criminal cases. A future President Trump would likely have the federal election charges against him and the separate criminal case over alleged withholding of White House documents dismissed if the appeals court revives them, which he could do by appointing Justice Department officials who are ready are to drop the charges. He would have no power over state prosecutions against him, but those could be suspended until Trump leaves office.

tangent

Trump’s criminal case in Georgia over an attempt to overturn the 2020 election is unlikely to see any activity until November because the proceedings are on hold while an appeals court considers whether to prosecute Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis over her romantic relationship The former prosecutor Nathan Wade should be disqualified. The appeals court will not hear arguments until December, meaning the proceedings will remain on hold until at least early next year.

Important background

Trump has faced a number of legal problems in the last few years of his presidency, including four criminal cases and numerous civil lawsuits. The ex-president largely rejected the cases against him, pleading not guilty in his criminal cases and widely condemning the allegations as “witch hunts” designed to harm his political campaign. While the criminal charges against Trump were all filed last year, only the ex-president’s Manhattan hush money case has come to trial so far, as Trump and his lawyers have managed to delay criminal proceedings in other cases. Trump’s federal election case regained momentum in August after the Supreme Court ruled in July that Trump and his ex-president cannot be criminally charged for “official acts” while in office, contradicting district and appeals court judges who said he was not entitled to immunity. This ruling has further upended the case against Trump and caused his sentencing in the hush money trial to be delayed, in addition to its impact on the election case.

Further reading

ForbesJudge ‘not concerned’ about election as she decides what to do next with Trump’s Jan. 6 caseFrom Alison DurkeeForbesJack Smith and the Justice Department spent more than $35 million prosecuting TrumpFrom Alison DurkeeForbesNew Claims From Jack Smith: Trump Hired Giuliani Because He Would Lie About Voter Fraud AllegationsFrom Alison DurkeeForbesThe Biggest New Claims Against Trump in Jack Smith’s Bombshell FileFrom Alison Durkee