Gameday prediction, 3 keys for Northwestern

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Six-win bowl eligibility isn’t a standard that has as much history as you might think.

The rule was not standardized until 2006, coinciding with the then-new 12-game regular season schedule.

Previously, there was no formal rule for bowl eligibility, but the unwritten rule stated that a winning record was required. Since most non-major, non-traditional bowls did not occur until the 1970s, the period in which the 11-game schedule was formalized, six wins was the de facto standard.

Indiana has a chance to qualify for six bowl victories if it can defeat Northwestern on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. The calendar has just changed to October. If the Hoosiers pick up their sixth win, it will come on October 5th.

If it happens, will it be the earliest Indiana has reached six wins? Here is a breakdown of the dates when the six-win threshold was reached in a 12- or 11-game season:

2020 – December 5 (The COVID-19 pandemic delayed the start of the season, but Indiana needed seven more games to achieve six wins.)

2019 – Oct 26th

2016 – November 26th

2015 – November 28th

2007 – November 3rd

1994 – November 19th

1993 – Oct 23rd

1991 – November 23rd

1990 – November 24th

1988 – Oct 29th

1987 – Oct 24th

1986 – November 8th

1980 – November 15th

1979 – November 3rd

The 1967 Rose Bowl team, playing in the 10-game era, started 6-0. But the college football season started later back then, so the ’67 Hoosiers had six wins on October 28th.

So in case you hadn’t guessed it, yes, the Hoosiers are in uncharted territory when it comes to achieving potential bowl eligibility at such an early stage.

Here are three keys and a prediction for the Northwestern game:

1. Kurtis Rourke can’t force the issue

Rourke has been very good for the Hoosiers so far, but you would be avoiding the obvious if you said Indiana hasn’t faced a really good defense yet.

Maryland was by far the best defense the Hoosiers have ever faced. Although Rourke threw for 359 yards and completed 66.7% of his passes, he also forced some passes. Two of them resulted in interceptions. There could have been a few more.

Northwestern can pressure the quarterback. The Wildcats average three sacks per game, so Rourke will likely come under pressure. Most of his decisions throughout the season were spot on. This must continue given the increasing pressure Rourke will face from Northwestern and higher-level defenses as the season progresses.

2. Continue to control the third down

The numbers don’t lie. Indiana leads the Big Ten with a 57.4% third down conversion rate. Northwestern is the worst third-down team in the league with a 27.5% conversion rate.

The Hoosiers’ balance helped them overcome third down. Indiana’s running game is probably most valued when considering third down. With the back-by-committee approach, Ty Son Lawton, Justice Ellison or Kaelon Black are theoretically always able to set the course.

Part of Indiana’s success also comes from converting shorter third downs. Of the 54 third-down situations Indiana faced, 36 were conversions of 7 yards or less.

Indiana’s defense was also very good in the third period. Hoosier opponents have converted on just 30.2% of their third-down opportunities.

3. Good luck with the injury

Not a controllable key, but Indiana’s injury record has been consistently good so far in the regular season. The only notable injuries were to running back Kaelon Black, who did not miss a game, and wide receiver Donaven McCulley, who has since retired.

Indiana is deep at receiver and in the backfield. The Hoosiers are not blessed with depth either on the line or at linebacker. Indiana’s good health so far means it hasn’t played a role and this trend must continue.

forecast

It’s a road test in an odd place — Northwestern University’s temporary lakefront stadium — but considering how efficient Indiana was and how much the Wildcats struggled to move the ball? It’s hard to imagine a worst-case scenario for the Hoosiers that involves a loss. Indiana wins 31-12 and the dream undefeated season continues.