‘Night of the Living Dead’: Tory conference marked by denial ends without direction | Conservative Conference

Three months after almost the worst election defeat ever, Conservative MPs appeared strangely gleeful at their conference in Birmingham this week.

Denial of the scale of the defeat, exaggeration of Labor’s teething problems in government and deception about the party’s chances of a quick comeback were widespread.

“I would never have said this, but I think we will be back in five years. I don’t know if Keir [Starmer] will even take that long,” a centrist former cabinet minister told skeptical viewers.

The four leadership candidates seemed to buy into the mood of baseless optimism. Of the candidates, only James Cleverly apologized to the party and the country for the Conservative unrest in the run-up to the general election. But his main message was to convey conservatism “with a smile,” drawing thunderous applause from the auditorium.

Kemi Badenoch, the right-wing darling in the contest, argued the result was so poor because the party had governed too much in the middle, while Robert Jenrick claimed the party’s problems could be solved by resuming the legally problematic Rwanda program and the withdrawal from the party can be resolved by the European Convention on Human Rights.

MPs said some of the Boris Johnson-style cheer came from relief at not being wiped out and the end of Rishi Sunak’s unpopular term. After the inevitable defeat was over in July, it was a matter of positioning yourself in the victorious leadership camp and making your way into shadow jobs.

“Most of us who are left are just happy to have kept our places. And when you only have 121 MPs, there is a great chance of shaping the future of the party and getting a decent job,” said one MP, adding: “Unless you are really hopeless.”

Another former minister said: “A major defeat, which we have all been fearing for two or three years, is no longer upon us. The only way is up. There are more party members here than usual and they are taking part in the leadership competition. At supporting events, the questions are not asked by industry associations, but by local members.”

Another was more cautious about the celebratory atmosphere, warning that it could feel very different in a year’s time when Labor is more firmly entrenched in government and an election is still four years away.

“I think part of the better atmosphere is due to some MPs arriving here and saying, ‘Look! I’m alive!'” said a new MP. “But I think that brings with it a very difficult thing: coming to terms with the fact that we really are no longer relevant. There is currently excitement surrounding the conference because we are involved in selecting a leader. But the reality is that for the next three years no one cares what we think. I can’t imagine what next year will be like.”

The conference was haunted by many ghosts of the last government – former chief schemer Gavin Williamson told colleagues he planned to focus on children’s charities and wildlife conservation from the backbenches.

George Osborne, the ex-chancellor, watched the leadership speeches from the press box under the guise of being a “podcaster”.

“It’s like the Night of the Living Dead in here,” said a Tory confidant at the Spectator Party, where former cabinet minister Michael Gove held court as the right-wing magazine’s new editor, surrounded by formerly powerful colleagues.

The candidates had hectic schedules filled with cheerful activists giving speeches at drinks parties and signing unusual merchandise. The candidates were keen to showcase their supporters; Former trade minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan strolled around with a fake Tom Tugendhat neck tattoo while a corridor was cleared for Jenrick and his wife Michal Berkner to walk down with a huge entourage of MPs behind them.

Jenrick appeared to be seen by some in the party hierarchy as a likely successor, so much so that he was moved to Rishi Sunak’s suite at the Hyatt following the former prime minister’s departure. The party insisted that this had less to do with any presumption of victory and more to do with the fact that he had previously been next to Badenoch’s suite and the two camps could hear each other through the walls.

Badenoch, the target of an unofficial “Stop Kemi” campaign among MPs, tried to plan her own move to persuade centrist colleagues to back her as one of the final two candidates alongside Jenrick.

“She got a bit of support,” one said. “Until the maternity benefit thing. It just reminded us that she was going to be risky.”

The Tories in Birmingham expected that Stimmehat would be eliminated in the next round of voting next week, triggering a fierce battle for his MP supporters. If they switch en masse to Cleverly, the second most centrist candidate, that could keep Badenoch out of the final two.

Jenrick’s allies have predicted with confidence – some would say misplaced – that Badenoch will not make it to the final. “We look forward to saying goodbye to her next week,” one said.

“Aside from immigration, Rob is more centrist than Kemi on many issues. She’s more of a libertarian,” said a Jenrick ally, pointing to Badenoch’s opposition to Sunak’s smoking ban.

However, Sunak’s allies voiced sharp criticism of Jenrick’s time in his government, saying Badenoch had been a team player by comparison. “Rob stabbed Rishi in the back,” said a former Sunak adviser. “Kemi never actively helped, but neither did she try to undermine the prime minister.”

With the focus on the contest, a former cabinet minister said many MPs – and the candidates – had not yet begun to acknowledge and process the reality of opposition. “They take comfort in the fact that Labor has had a rocky few months,” they said. “But they are delusional. The result was a clear rejection of everything we stood for.”

Another said they felt the optimism was getting out of control. “Some people are getting carried away saying Labor will only last five years,” said a former Tory MP who lost his seat in July. “Even if Labor screws things up badly enough, we would need to win 40 seats from the Liberal Democrats and there is no way we will be able to do that unless they are in government.”

At numerous fringe events, MPs and others argued that a “genuinely conservative” agenda of exit from the ECtHR, low taxes and culture wars would remove the threat posed by reform and allow the Tories to return to power against a weak and divided Labor government power to come.

At one event, Orpington MP Gareth Bacon complained that the last Conservative government had “governed from the left” and that was the only reason Reform had done so well – not to mention the 60 or so seats it won lost his party to the Liberal Democrats.

Some rank-and-file members may agree that a shift to the right is needed – with loud support for Badenoch at her fringe events and conference speech, and for Jenrick’s enthusiasm for leaving the ECtHR. But the more centrist and still pro-Brexit Cleverly party received a similarly warm welcome and received credit for admitting the party’s failings in the election.

The party is currently in advanced talks about moving next year’s Tory conference from Birmingham to Newcastle. With the race now effectively a three-way battle between Badenoch, Jenrick and Cleverly, it is still entirely unclear who will try to give the Tories a fresh start in the north-east in 2025 – and whether anyone in the country will listen.