Missouri vs. Texas A&M score prediction from an expert football model

SEC football begins this weekend with two ranked teams on the same field as No. 9 Missouri takes on No. 25 Texas A&M in Week 6 of college football. So let’s take a look at the updated predictions for the game from a proven expert model.

Missouri is still perfect in four games, including the SEC opener two weeks ago, but has played its last two games close, winning by a total of 11 points.

Texas A&M dropped its season-opening game against Notre Dame but has won three games since then, becoming the first SEC team to finish 2-0 in conference play with wins over Florida and Arkansas.

What do the experts say about the matchup?

To do this, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Missouri and Texas A&M will compare in this SEC football game, along with an updated score prediction.

So far, the simulations favor the Tigers over the Aggies in this away duel.

SP+ predicts Missouri will defeat Texas A&M by a projected score of 29-24 and win the game by an expected 5.2 points.

The model gives Mizzou a 63 percent chance of winning the game outright.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a win ratio of 53.8.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook data, Texas A&M is a slight 2.5-point favorite against Missouri.

FanDuel listed the total score for the game at 48.5 points.

And it set the moneyline odds for the overall win for Missouri at -130 and for Texas A&M at +110.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

Other analytical models also suggest that the Tigers are ahead this weekend.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Missouri is expected to win the game in 51.5 percent of the latest computer simulations.

That leaves Texas A&M as the expected winner in the remaining 48.5 percent of Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Missouri is expected to be just 0.7 points better than Texas A&M with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

Missouri is sixth among SEC teams with a 32.2 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win nine games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Texas A&M a total win projection of 8 games and a 12.3 percent chance of making the playoffs.

More… Missouri vs. Texas A&M Prediction: What the Analytics Say

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 11am Central
TV: ABC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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