How might Israel respond and what might Iran then do?

The Middle East is once again on the brink of a serious and devastating war between two protagonists who have been at odds with each other for much of the past 45 years. This is now one of the most dangerous moments for the entire region.

Iran, which became an Islamic republic after overthrowing the Shah in 1979, has long vowed to destroy the state of Israel, which it calls the “Zionist regime.” Israel accuses Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of spreading violence in the Middle East through its allies and proxies, a view shared by several Arab governments.

Israel is poised to retaliate against Iran over Tuesday’s barrage of ballistic missiles, some of which penetrated Israeli air defenses.

Iran says this was in response to two assassinations by Israel – of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

So what happens next?

Both Israel and its closest ally the United States have vowed to punish Iran for firing 180 rockets at Israel. “Iran,” says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “will pay a high price.”

The restraint that Israel’s allies urged the last time there was a standoff like this in April is more muted this time. And given Israel’s determination to take on all of its enemies at once – in Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen and Syria – the Netanyahu government appears to be in no mood to hold back.

Israeli planners are now likely to debate not whether and when to hit Iran, but how hard.

Supported by US satellite intelligence and human Mossad (Israel’s foreign spy agency) agents on the ground in Iran, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has a wide range of targets to choose from. These can be roughly divided into three categories:

• Conventional military – An early and obvious target will be the bases from which Iran fired these ballistic missiles. So that means launch pads, command and control centers, fuel tanks and storage bunkers. It could go further, hitting IRGC bases as well as air defense installations and other missile batteries. It may even attempt to assassinate key people involved in Iran’s ballistic missile program.
• Economically – This would include Iran’s most vulnerable state assets – its petrochemical plants, its power generation and possibly its shipping interests. However, this would be a deeply unpopular move in Iran, as it would end up causing far more damage to the lives of ordinary people than any attack on the military.
• Nuclear – This is the big problem for Israel. It is a well-known fact, established by the UN nuclear regulator IAEA, that Iran enriches uranium well beyond the 20% required for civilian nuclear power. Israel and others suspect that Iran is trying to quickly reach a “breakout point” where it will be able to build a nuclear bomb. Sites on Israel’s possible target list include Parchin, the epicenter of Iran’s military nuclear program, research reactors in Tehran, Bonab and Ramsar, and key facilities in Bushehr, Natanz, Isfahan and Ferdow.

A big part of their calculations will be second-guessing Iran’s reaction and figuring out how to mitigate it. The Iranian position is that after firing these missiles at alleged Israeli military targets on Tuesday, the score is now settled. But it warns that if Israel retaliates, it will retaliate.

“This is just a glimpse of our capabilities,” said Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The IRGC reiterated this message, stating: “If the Zionist regime responds to Iran’s operations, it will face devastating attacks.”

Iran cannot defeat Israel militarily. Its air force is old and dilapidated, its air defenses are leaky and it has struggled with Western sanctions for years.

But it still has an enormous amount of ballistic and other missiles, as well as explosive-laden drones, and numerous allied proxy militias in the Middle East. The next volley of rockets could well target Israeli residential areas rather than military bases. The attack by an Iranian-backed militia on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities in 2019 showed how vulnerable its neighbors are to attack.

The IRGC Navy operating in the Gulf has large flotillas of small, fast missile attack boats that could potentially overwhelm the defenses of a U.S. Navy 5th Fleet warship in a swarm attack. Given the order, it could attempt to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the flow of up to 20% of the world’s daily oil exports, which would have a significant impact on the global economy.

And then there are all the US military bases scattered across the Arab side of the Gulf, from Kuwait to Oman. Iran has warned that if an attack occurs, it will not only retaliate against Israel, but will target any country it believes supports the attack.

So these are just some of the scenarios that defense planners in Tel Aviv and Washington will now consider.