Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista: Odds, full fight preview and prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) bantamweight standouts Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista will go to war this weekend (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024) at UFC 307 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Generally, we hate to see aging legends return after retirement. However, former featherweight star and all-time leading contender Aldo continues to buck the trends. The 38-year-old Brazilian returned after almost two years away to survive the break Jonathan Martíneza talented contender at the peak of his powers.

“Scarface” still has it and only loses to the champion Merab Dvalishvili in the last four years.

As for Bautista, the MMA Lab-trained representative has certainly earned this rise in competition. Winner of his last six contests, Bautista has steadily risen up the rankings and achieved various finishes to prove himself a true contender in the bantamweight division.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Aldo vs Bautista betting odds

Jose Aldo win: +124
Jose Aldo via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Jose Aldo via submission: TBD
Jose Aldo by decision: TBD
Mario Bautista win: -148
Mario Bautista on TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Mario Bautista on submission: TBD
Mario Bautista by decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Aldo wins

Now, at the end of his career, Aldo somehow still remains a pretty elite bantamweight and the only man to have stopped all of Dvalishvili’s takedown attempts. As a masterful striker with the best takedown defense in mixed martial arts (MMA) history, Aldo’s Achilles heel is likely his performance and conditioning.

At Salt Lake City’s altitude, this is a cause for concern.

Aldo actually won the first round against “The Machine” in Salt Lake two years ago, but he just didn’t do much in the next two rounds and had to take a decision. Whether fear of heights or general cardio was to blame, Aldo can’t let that happen here.

Luckily, Bautista can’t win this fight without an exchange with Aldo. In his last fight, Aldo perfectly controlled the range and flow of the fight, picking Martinez apart and disrupting his movement. Martinez couldn’t get anything going, so he couldn’t put Aldo’s tank on and try to take over the volume.

Expect Aldo to try the same thing here.

How Bautista wins

Bautista wrestled in high school, has a black belt in jiu-jitsu, and has good strength in his hands. The versatile rising contender likes to set the pace for his opponents by really forcing the issue and putting his opponents in a bad position if they respond poorly to his pressure.

If we look at Aldo’s previous defeats, Bautista seems more capable of repeating the success of Max Holloway or Peter Yan as Alexander Volkanovski or Marlon Moraes. Relentless pressure, feints and combination boxing are a better choice for Bautista than trying to outwit Aldo from distance, especially since he has height on his side.

Of course, putting Aldo under pressure isn’t easy. The Brazilian has a lot of tricks up his sleeve and this is only a three-round fight. To get the most out of this strategy, Bautista must try to overwhelm Aldo’s senses with constant feints and misdirections. He also can’t allow Aldo to be the only man in the cage hitting the body, which could slow the former champion down significantly.

Aldo vs Bautista prediction

I know this isn’t an “X-Factor” article, but the “X-Factor” here is definitely height. At 38 years old, can Aldo maintain his usual pace or something similar in Salt Lake City? Smart money says no, because every trend in the book is that 38-year-old bantamweights in their prime don’t win fights against good, ranked opponents.

Keep this logic and history in mind before giving in to my prediction, but I believe Aldo can do it. Simply put, it will take a generational talent to surpass Aldo, even at this stage of the game. Dvalishvili managed to steal one from “Junior” by pinning him to the fence, but he is currently the best in the world at 135 pounds and it was still far from impressive.

Bautista doesn’t have the chain wrestling or otherworldly physicality of Dvalishvili. He has to strike with Aldo, regardless of whether he gets promoted or not, that rarely works out well for most people.

Prediction: Aldo by decision

LIVE! Watch UFC 307 PPV on ESPN+ here!

Championship doubleheader! The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will host a one-off pay-per-view (PPV) extravaganza on Saturday, September 14, 2024, in honor of Mexican Independence Day during the Riyadh season, an unlikely mashup yet to be crowned the main event in bantamweight between the reigning champion, Sean O’Malleyand sliced contender for number 1 Merab Dvalishvili. UFC 306 Championship co-headliner, current flyweight titleholder, Alexa Grassowill settle her score with fellow Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 32 trainer Valentina Shevchenko in the final bout of her epic 125-pound trilogy. The UFC 306 PPV main card (see here) will also be included Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqilengand much more! The action from “Sin City” is a must-see! UFC 306 The start time is scheduled 6:30 p.m. ET (preliminary round card) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of epic punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com delivers LIVE round-by-round and blow-by-blow coverage of the entire area UFC 307 fight card Right Herestarting with the early one ESPN+ Online preliminary round games, which are scheduled to start at 6:30 p.m. ET (Simultaneously broadcast on ESPNews at 8pm ET), before the start time of the pay-per-view (PPV) main card 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To read the latest and greatest news and notes on UFC 307: “Pereira vs. Rountree,” be sure to check out our comprehensive event archive Here.

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