Clemson vs. Florida State football prediction: What the analysis says

The ACC rivals square off this weekend when Florida State hosts No. 15 Clemson on Saturday night in Week 6 of college football.

Florida State’s season went into a tailspin right from the start, starting with an overall score of 1-4 and a score of 1-3 in ACC play. Now the concern is that quarterback DJ Uiagalelei won’t play for the next few weeks while he recovers from a broken finger.

Clemson started on the wrong end with a 31-point loss to Georgia but rebounded to win three straight games, including a 2-0 start in the ACC as the 14th-ranked offense in the country.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from computer prediction model Football Power Index.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, utilizes key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected point spread per game.

So far this week, the models are strongly siding with the street team.

Clemson is the index favorite and is projected to win the game in most 80 percent of the computer’s latest simulations.

That leaves Florida State as the expected winner in the remaining 20 percent of the sims.

Overall, Clemson won in 16,000 of the computer’s 20,000 simulations, while Florida State came out on top in the other 4,000 predictions.

According to the model’s latest projection, with both teams’ current makeup, Clemson is expected to be 12.6 points better than Florida State on the same field.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Clemson is the 14-point favorite against Florida State, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 47.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -700 for Clemson and +500 for Florida State.

A majority of bets have the Tigers facing the Seminoles this week, according to the latest spread consensus recommendations.

Most bettors – 75 percent of them – expect Clemson to win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 25 percent of bettors expect the Seminoles to keep the game within 2 touchdowns or win in an upset.

Clemson is second among ACC teams with a 33.6 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.5 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model predicts Florida State will win 3.7 games and has a 5.3 percent chance of appearing in a bowl game.

The college football rankings Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including recent results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a expected points lead per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

–

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: bookmark | Rankings | Selection