USC vs. Minnesota football prediction: What the analysis says

Big Ten football kicks off in the Twin Cities with a new-look matchup brought to us by conference realignment as No. 11 USC visits Minnesota on Saturday in Week 6 of college football.

USC is 1-1 in Big Ten play, rebounding from a 3-point loss at Michigan and beating Wisconsin last week, surviving three turnovers and accumulating 469 yards after giving up an early 21-10 lead .

Minnesota fell to 0-2 in conference play after dropping decisions to Iowa and Michigan and ranked 114th nationally in rushing and 78th in offense heading into the weekend.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from computer prediction model Football Power Index.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, utilizes key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected point spread per game.

As expected, the model has a strong take on the Trojans on the road.

USC is the index favorite and is expected to win the game in most 71.5 percent of the computer’s latest simulations.

That leaves Minnesota as the expected winner in the remaining 28.5 percent of sims.

Overall, USC is winning in 14,300 of the computer’s 20,000 simulations, while Minnesota is ahead in the other 5,700 predictions.

According to the model’s latest projection, USC is projected to be 8.4 points better than Minnesota with both teams’ current makeup on the same field.

If so, that would be just enough for the Trojans to cover the spread.

That’s because USC is the favorite against Minnesota by 8 points, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel listed the total score for the game at 50.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -320 for USC and +260 for Minnesota.

Based on the latest spread consensus recommendations, most bettors expect the Trojans to take care of the Gophers in this one.

The majority of bets – 69 percent – ​​have USC winning the game and covering the point spread.

The remaining 31 percent of bets assume the Gophers can keep the game within the line or completely upset the Trojans.

USC is fifth among Big Ten teams with a 21.6 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.5 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Minnesota a 31.8 percent chance of qualifying for the bowl and an overall win projection of just 4.9 games.

The college football rankings Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including recent results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a expected points lead per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

–

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: bookmark | Rankings | Selection