Ole Miss vs. South Carolina Football Prediction: What the Analysis Says

There’s an important SEC football matchup on Saturday as No. 12 Ole Miss looks to bounce back from last week’s loss and take on South Carolina on the road in Week 6 of college football.

Ole Miss was considered the favorite in its SEC opener against Kentucky, but the top-ranked offense at the time didn’t have enough answers, allowing a late touchdown in a game that left the team’s playoff chances looking somewhat in doubt early in the season.

South Carolina was out a week ago, but played LSU close the week before and lost, and this game is the first of four straight games against ranked opponents that are among the SEC’s most formidable teams.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from computer prediction model Football Power Index.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, utilizes key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected point spread per game.

As expected, the models strongly predict that the Rebels will bounce back this week.

Ole Miss is expected to win the game in 75.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves South Carolina as the expected winner in 24.6 percent of sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Ole Miss is expected to be 10.3 points better than South Carolina with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Ole Miss is a 9-point favorite against South Carolina, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 52.5 points.

And the moneyline odds to win outright are -350 for Ole Miss and +280 for South Carolina.

A majority of bets are expecting the Gamecocks to keep this game a little tighter, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

South Carolina receives 60 percent of the bets on either keeping the game within 9 points or defeating the Rebels in an upset.

The remaining 40 percent of bets assume Ole Miss will win the game and cover the spread.

Ole Miss is fifth among SEC teams with a 41 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.3 games this season, according to FPI data.

The Index estimates the Rebels are 21.8 points better than an average neutral-field team.

This model gives South Carolina a 3.2 percent chance of making the playoffs and assumes it will win 6.5 games.

And it says the Gamecocks will be 9.1 points better than an average neutral-field team.

The college football rankings Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including recent results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a expected points lead per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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