Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction: What the Analytics Say

No. 3 Ohio State returns home from its Big Ten opener to take on Iowa on Saturday in a matchup of rivals, 1-0 in conference play, in Week 6 of college football.

Ohio State ranks in the top five nationally in offense and defense and is behind an offense that is ranked in the top 15 in both rushing and passing through four games.

Iowa ranks 10th in FBS in rushing production, but its vertical offense still struggles, ranking 124th among 134 teams nationally in passing efficiency.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from computer prediction model Football Power Index.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, utilizes key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected point spread per game.

So far, the models are expecting another big win for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State is expected to win the game in most 89.7 percent of the computer’s recent simulations.

That leaves Iowa as the expected winner in the remaining 10.3 percent of Sims.

According to the models, Ohio State is projected to be 19.6 points better than Iowa with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Ohio State is the 20.5-point favorite against Iowa, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total score for the game as 44.5 points.

FanDuel has the moneyline odds to win outright for Ohio State at -1400 and for Iowa at +800.

Most bets are expecting Iowa to make this game tighter, based on the latest spread consensus recommendations.

More than 66 percent of bettors expect the Hawkeyes to keep the game within the point margin.

And the remaining 34 percent of bets assume Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread.

Ohio State ranks first among Big Ten teams with an 84.8 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.3 games, according to FPI data.

This model gives Iowa a 4.7 percent chance of making the playoffs and a total win projection of 7.9 games.

The college football rankings Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including recent results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a expected points lead per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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