The Bitcoin “Trump Trade” Is Dead. Here’s What It Means for Price – DL News

There is a lot at stake before the US electorate votes on November 5th.

Bernstein once portrayed the US election as a choice between whether Bitcoin hits $90,000 under Donald Trump or the cryptocurrency crashes to $30,000 under Kamala Harris.

The Wall Street research firm has since changed its mind, saying: “The momentum should continue regardless of the election outcome.”

This is a dramatic turnaround.

The 180 is a result of the industry’s $204 million in spending to influence crypto-friendly politicians in Washington.

With both Republicans and Democrats now making generous overtures to the sector, one could argue that they got exactly what they paid for.

A crypto choice

The amount of money being poured into industry lobbying – as well as the more than $1 billion placed in election bets on crypto gambling platform Polymarket – underscores the importance of the crypto sector in the election.

Under Joe Biden’s term as president, Democrats raised their anti-crypto army; supported the “exit of crypto companies” during the 2023 banking crisis; and supported Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler’s anti-crypto campaign, as Bernstein noted last week.

SEC data shows that it has filed around 158 lawsuits against companies and individuals related to cryptocurrencies. Over half of this was raised under Gensler.

Crypto experts saw Trump as an end to this campaign. The former president has been a vocal supporter of cryptocurrencies. Among other things, he pledged to create a national Bitcoin stockpile and send Gensler away.

That was the origin of the Trump Trade. This summer, the narrative that his winning the White House for a second term would propel Bitcoin forward gained momentum.

Then Biden said goodbye and made Harris his successor. During her election campaign, she quickly overtook Trump in the polls. For some, like Quinn Thompson, co-founder of Lekker Capital, that was the end of the Trump trade.

They argued that other factors — like the Federal Reserve’s rate cut or the conflict in the Middle East — had a greater influence than whoever ended up in the Oval Office.

Harris has said nothing about cryptocurrencies in the first two months of her campaign, an indication that she could continue the Biden administration’s crackdown on cryptocurrencies.

That is changing. Last week, Harris said she supports the development of digital assets. While some industry experts described the comments as “hollow words,” they felt “some relief when both candidates signaled their support,” wrote Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia.

However, they added that “crypto market sentiment would be stronger in the event of a Trump victory, as it would indicate a political reset and likely broader regulatory support.”

Crypto market maker

• Bitcoin fell 1.1% in the last 24 hours to trade at $62,901.
• Ethereum fell 1% to $2,583.

What we read

Eric Johansson is news editor of DL News. Do you have a tip? Email to [email protected].