Odds, picks and predictions for the 2024 World Series

In a year where no MLB team reached 100 wins for the first time since 2014, expect many of the 12 teams to be vying to win the 2024 World Series.

The three favorites (Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies) earned a bye in the wild card round, as did the Guardians, which is obviously very helpful given the volatility of playoff baseball and has a big impact on the betting odds.

It makes sense that these three teams are the betting favorites, and without regard to the odds, my pick would be the versatile and tight-knit Phillies squad breaking through after a few close calls.

However, when you consider San Diego’s price of +1200, it makes sense why they have become the trendy World Series pick in the betting markets. And they are my favorite bet too.

2024 World Series odds

2024 World Series Prediction and Picks

With 93 wins, the Padres are tied with the Yankees and Brewers for the third-most wins in baseball, behind only the Dodgers (98) and Phillies (95). They have a 48-42 record against teams over .500 and trail only the red-hot Tigers with a 20-10 record in their last 30 games.

That would suggest that the Padres aren’t your standard wild-card team, and a closer look at the roster particularly tantalizingly shows that they’re every bit the equal of any division winner in the field.

The Padres’ batters struck out less than any other team this season (17.6%) and ranked fourth in K/BB ratio.

In the postseason, having elite pitchers put balls in play and increase numbers is beneficial, and not many teams have done it better in 2024 than the Padres, who should be able to outscore their opponents in a long stretch series to make life difficult.

Xander Bogaerts has found his form again with a .762 OPS since the All-Star break, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has been phenomenal since coming off the IL on September 2nd. Tatis posted a .568 slugging percentage in the final month of the regular season.

With those two healthy and in the mix, the Padres have one of the stronger lineups in baseball, posting a wRC+ of 118 in September.

Thanks to the additions of Jason Adam and Tanner Scott at the trade deadline, San Diego’s bullpen is arguably the best in the league and enters the playoffs in great shape with a 3.14 ERA last month. Additionally, the unit ranks first in Pitching+ Rating and third in xFIP Rating throughout the season.

The Padres’ starting rotation is arguably the best unit of any remaining team, especially in terms of depth. In nine starts since returning from injury on August 12, Joe Musgrove has a 2.15 ERA and a 3.18 xFIP. This earned him the start in Game 2 against the Braves.

Yu Darvish has also returned to solid form, with a 3.55 ERA in five starts since leaving the IL in late August and re-entering the rotation. He is expected to work out of the bullpen in the wild-card round.

It’s safe to assume Musgrove and Darvish are the Padres’ third- and fourth-best starters, respectively, based on the performances of Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA, 3.32 xERA) and Michael King (2.95 ERA, 3.54). xERA) this season. King will start Game 1 on Tuesday night, with Cease assigned a closer for Game 3 if necessary.

There aren’t many teams in the playoffs that offer a starting rotation as deep as San Diego’s, including the Dodgers, the World Series favorite.

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It’s hard to argue that the Padres’ lineup is as strong as the Dodgers’, but the depth of their rotation and bullpen makes me believe they can eliminate their biggest rival if this matchup comes to fruition.

San Diego also has a slight advantage in the Wild Card Series as Atlanta’s bullpen was heavily used on Monday, and with Chris Sale’s status up in the air, things are looking up for the Braves.

BET: Padres win the World Series (+1200, DraftKings)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin breaks down the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but also has a 180-unit lead himself in verified picks on a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.