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What should scare Hogs most about the Vols isn’t the $2 million QB

What should scare Hogs most about the Vols isn’t the  million QB

Photo credit: Craven Whitlow / Tennessee Athletics

Tennessee travels to Fayetteville for a prime-time showdown with the Razorbacks on Saturday. Arkansas’ last win over a top-five team in Fayetteville was against the Vols in 1999, so Hog fans are certainly hoping history repeats itself.

The Volunteers are known for their offense, particularly their powerful air strikes. But they’re not a one-trick pony, and it’s all the other things they do well that make them such a threat.

Deep ball threat

Josh Heupel is an offensive guy and his calling card is explosive offense. The Tennessee football coach’s philosophy isn’t exactly new: It’s the truest extension of the “veer-and-shoot” attack pioneered by Art Briles at Baylor.

The veer-and-shoot system is remarkably simple, which is why Kendal Briles’ father originally developed it as a high school coach. It uses spread formations with very wide receiver splits that make it difficult for slot defenders to help against the run. This forces the defense to make a difficult decision: try to keep seven defenders in the box to stop the run, and the offense gets 1-on-1 duels for their deep passing play (the “shot”). If the defense keeps two deep safeties to prevent the deep passes, they only have six defenders in the box to stop the read-option rushing attack (the “Veer”).

Defenses usually choose the latter option, so most veer-and-shoot teams are run-heavy and have to face easy boxes. The rise of run-pass options (RPOs) made this offense very dangerous because the quarterback can easily count the defenders in the box and know before the snap whether he is going to hand the ball off. If you were wondering why Rocket Sanders had a fantastic 2022 season with huge holes and a terrible 2023 season, the offensive transition from Kendal Briles’ veer-and-shoot to Dan Enos’ spread coast was probably the biggest factor.

While other veer-and-shoot coaches like the younger Briles and Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby have evolved their scheme into something more akin to other modern spreads, Heupel’s Tennessee offense still has the original Baylor look and feel very loyal.

Probably the most striking feature of the Briles system, which Heupel still uses, is the extremely wide receiver splits. Note how far out of the numbers the outside receiver is aligned on this play and how the slot defender has no way to help against a run:

As simple as the scheme is, it requires a really good quarterback to execute. He must have good ball depth and force the defense to contain their safeties. And he needs to be a dual threat so that the read option can “read” a defender on running plays.

You’ve probably heard of Tennessee’s talented quarterback Nico Iamaleava. He earned his reported no-cost, $2 million deal this season with a strong, speedy passing attack like this:

Of course, if you watch a full Tennessee football game, you’ll notice that they don’t throw deep all that often. In fact, the Vols don’t throw at a high rate at all. In two games against Power 4 opponents, they attempted 23 and 21 passes, respectively. Compare that to Arkansas: 45, 27 and 41 attempts for Taylen Green against Oklahoma State, Auburn and Texas A&M, respectively.

The Vols have the sixth-highest Run Rate Over Expected in the country, a statistic that measures how often a team runs the ball considering the downs and distances they have faced. This makes them the most run-heavy team in the SEC.

With four starts this year, Iamaleava represents the deep threat the veer-and-shoot needs to work. Note in the clip above that Oklahoma is equipped with dime personnel (six defensive backs) and only has six men in the box, even though the Vols have six potential blockers (five offensive linemen and one tight end) and a quarterback who has a poses a running threat. Any running play will have a significant advantage in terms of blockers.

It’s very difficult to maintain gap integrity like on this long route where Kent State has no way to declare the pulling lineman.

And RPOs increase that advantage even further: No one in the SEC invokes more RPOs than Heupel. Play-action is also a common way to exploit safeties and beat the run.

So what are the weaknesses? On paper, this plan is difficult to stop. Historically, the biggest problem for the veer-and-shoot has been its inability to land elite quarterbacks – with the exception of Robert Griffin III – because it was perceived as a very college offense that doesn’t develop NFL skills. But Tennessee has broken through that objection with Iamaleava, a 5-star prospect with legitimate pro ability.

The biggest problem may be the lack of options at quarterback. Like the original Baylor offense, Tennessee uses maximum protection almost exclusively. This means that the tight end and running back always remain in the pass block, meaning there are only three receivers in the pattern. This has served to protect Iamaleava, who is under pressure with an SEC-low 12.5% ​​in rebounds this year.

In theory, the veer-and-shoot doesn’t require many receivers in the pattern since many of the routes only have one read for the quarterback. RPOs, for example, typically only have one optic. And the veer-and-shoot loves deep “choice” routes that the quarterback usually runs pre-snap due to his defensive alignment, like this all-timer from the 2021 Arkansas-Texas A&M game:

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But defending three receivers is much easier than defending five, and if the quarterback’s first and second reads aren’t there, the game can quickly fall apart.

Therefore, run defense (with six players in the box) will ultimately be key, and there’s reason to believe the Hogs can keep the Vols under control there. Although Tennessee overran the hapless defenses of Chattanooga, NC State and Kent State, Oklahoma’s defense was able to control its running game well. Tennessee ran the ball 52 times for 151 yards in the game, an average of just 2.9 yards per rush.

Compared to the defenders Arkansas has struggled with so far in SEC play, namely Jarquez Hunter and Le’Veon Moss, Dylan Sampson, the Vols’ biggest tailback, appears to be easier to contain. He breaks tackles less quickly than Hunter or Moss and had a buffer of just 1.33 yards from contact per rush against Oklahoma.

If Arkansas keeps the Vols’ power offense under control, it comes down to this:

  • His safeties, who have been very good so far this year, have effectively killed the deep passing game
  • The defensive front, which has excelled against the run, keeps Tennessee from getting out of control

Tennessee’s secret weapon

The Vol offense has dominated the headlines, but it’s the Tennessee defense that has been truly exceptional so far this year. The news on this side of the ball is not good for an Arkansas offense that has been stifled by Texas A&M.

When you look at the stats, the Volunteers defense is basically the same as the Aggies’ unit, but better. Texas A&M ranks fourth nationally in run-stuff rate (percentage of runs broken up without a gain or loss), but the Volunteers are No. 1. They cause plenty of havoc: 7.8 tackles for a loss per game (ranked 12th nationally) , plus 17 pass deflections and four forced fumbles in just four games.

While Tennessee’s defensive line doesn’t have the talent of Texas A&M, it has been just as productive this year, albeit against some weak offenses. The Vols have insane depth here and no defensive lineman has played even half of the team’s snaps. Inside, 325-pound Omari Thomas is a beast against the run and will require double-team blocks. Most other devices also weigh in the plus 300 pounds range.

The linebackers and secondary aren’t elite, but it’s unclear if the Hogs can take advantage of them. While Tennessee generally prevents explosive passes, they are very susceptible to a good short to intermediate passing game. The linebackers are good against the run but bad in coverage. The weakest link in the secondary is nickel Christian Harrison, the man who apparently beat out Doneiko Slaughter for the starting job in Knoxville. The Vols like him for his solid play against the run, but he struggles in coverage. Strong safety Andre Turrentine also struggled.

It will be a big challenge to control the ball against such a strong defense. The Hogs must find a way to effectively attack the weaker coverage units. Given the attention Andrew Armstrong will receive, this could be a great opportunity for Isaiah Sategna. I also like what Isaac TeSlaa was able to do in the slot.

The only good news here is that Tennessee doesn’t apply much pressure against the quarterback. Like Auburn and Texas A&M, I expect the Vols to apply a lot more pressure than usual, but the Hogs could potentially protect their quarterback.

What to look for in Arkansas vs. Tennessee

Arkansas is a big underdog on Saturday, but any chance of a win will likely require a low-scoring game in which Tennessee’s threat of explosive plays never materializes.

The Hogs will likely keep their safeties deep to prevent the deep ball and roll the dice on stopping the run with six in the box. If they can do it, they can thwart the Vol offense and give their own offense a chance to win the game. It would be a big boost to get Hudson Clark and Jaylon Braxton, who have missed the last few games due to injuries, back in the lineup.

This will be a big challenge offensively, but the Hogs are probably the best offense Tennessee has faced to date. Green needs to be accurate and the offensive line needs to protect better than it did against the Aggies.

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