College Football Playoffs 2024 – Bubble Watch Week 6

BYU coach Kalani Sitake isn’t giving his players a coach’s speech about the 12-team College Football Playoff and the door that has opened for the once-independent program.

“These kids aren’t stupid,” said Sitake, whose Cougars are in their second year in the Big 12 but in their first year of the expanded playoff era.

As an independent, it’s been too difficult for too long to get a real shot at the national title, he said, which the new 12-team format guarantees to the top five ranked conference champions.

“In the past, to get into the playoffs you had to play perfectly, literally perfect, get points and so on,” he said. “And even then, it’s no guarantee that you’ll be there. I mean, ask Florida State and others, right?”

Undefeated BYU is trending in the right direction, while Ole Miss took a significant step backwards with its home loss to Kentucky. Both teams are in the bubble this week.

Below is a snapshot of what the College Football Playoff selection committee could do today based on five weeks of data. This is not a ranking. Here’s what the seeds and rankings would look like, based on the committee’s projected top 12 for this week – plus a look at eight other teams currently in the bubble and a ranking of the top five schools from the Group of 5.

Jump to a topic:
Bye | First round matches
The first four out | The next four out
Group of 5

Expected 12-team group

Byes in the first round

Note: Seeding is based on my projected CFP Committee Top 12.

No. 1 seed Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tide moved to the top after their win over Georgia on Saturday, securing the No. 1 spot as SEC champions and top-seeded conference champions. This is based on the fact that Alabama was also the selection committee’s No. 1 team on selection day. Alabama enters October with the best resume in college football. The average playoff contender would have a 29 percent chance of starting 4-0 against the Crimson Tide’s schedule.

No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes would secure the No. 2 spot as projected Big Ten champions and second-best conference champions behind Alabama. Ohio State currently has the third-best chance of securing a No. 1 seed (16.8%), behind only Texas and Alabama. However, no one has a better chance of securing a bye as one of the four top-seeded conference champions than the Buckeyes (51.6%).

No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes would earn that spot as ACC champions and third-seeded conference champions. According to ESPN Research, Miami has the third-best chance in the country of securing a first-round bye (34.1%). The Canes also have the highest odds to win the ACC (36%), followed by Clemson (27.9%).

No. 4 seed Kansas State Wildcats: Despite the head-to-head loss to BYU, K-State earned that spot as the presumptive Big 12 champion this week. The Wildcats have strong wins against Tulane, Arizona and Oklahoma State, but one of the biggest differences between the two is at quarterback, where K-State’s Avery Johnson scored five touchdowns, which will play well in the committee room. However, three of the Wildcats’ next four games are on the road, starting Saturday against an improving Colorado team.

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About the 12-team College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff will expand to 12 teams this season. Find out how it will play out, from the first round to the national championship game on January 20, 2025.

First Round Matches (on campus)

No. 12 Boise State Broncos and No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Winner plays: No. 4 Kansas State

Explanation for sowing: Boise State would clinch that spot as the committee’s fifth-highest conference winner, and it would be No. 12 at the expense of Ole Miss, which is No. 12 in the committee’s projected rankings. The top five ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, and in this case the fifth conference champion, Boise State, is outside the committee’s projected top 12. As for Texas, the Longhorns would be the SEC’s runner-up. on, but even as the second-ranked team in the country, Texas couldn’t be seeded higher than No. 5 because the top four spots are reserved for the conference champions.

No. 9 Oregon Ducks and No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions
Winner plays: No. 1 Alabama

Explanation for sowing: Big Ten opponents Oregon and Penn State don’t play each other during the regular season, but it’s possible they could meet in the conference championship game (if that had happened, though, one of them would have Ohio State up in the top four seeds replaced). and earn a bye in the first round). In that scenario, Penn State would be the Big Ten’s runner-up. According to ESPN Research, Penn State (33.8%) and Oregon (38.8%) have the second- and third-best odds, respectively, to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. Keep in mind the importance of seeding – and home advantage – as the winner will face the best team in the country.

No. 11 Michigan Wolverines and No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami

Explanation for sowing: This shows how different the seeding can be from the committee’s ranking on selection day, as Tennessee was ranked No. 3. Since seeds 1-4 are reserved for the conference champions and the SEC runner-up was ranked No. 5, the Vols were relegated to No. 6. They would still earn a home game in the first round, but a bye isn’t out of the question in the future. According to ESPN Research, Tennessee joins Texas and Alabama as the only SEC teams with at least a 15% chance of securing a first-round bye.

No. 10 Clemson Tigers and No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs
Winner plays: No. 2 Ohio State

Explanation for sowing: The Selection Committee does not consider rematches when voting on the season’s final Top 25 and does not re-seed teams. Georgia beat Clemson 34-3 in the season opener at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, but this time the Bulldogs would have real home-field advantage as a higher seed in the first round. Following Georgia’s loss to Alabama on Saturday, the Bulldogs now have the fourth-best chance of reaching the SEC Championship Game (10.3%) behind Texas, Alabama and Tennessee. Clemson is on track to face Miami in the ACC Championship Game, but according to ESPN Research, Miami has the better odds of winning the conference (36%). Clemson would earn an overall spot here as the ACC’s second seed.

The first four out

Ole Miss Rebels: One team’s playoff chances were hurt more in Week 5 than Ole Miss’, which fell from 41% to 35%. In that scenario, Ole Miss would still have been ranked 12th by the committee, but the Rebels would be pushed out for the fifth-ranked conference champion, Boise State.

BYU Cougars: The Cougars rank second in ESPN’s record strength after wins against SMU and K-State, both of which rank in the top 20 of ESPN’s Football Power Index. They also almost lost to Baylor. BYU now has the second-best chance of winning the Big 12 (15.6%), behind Iowa State (20.4%).

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Irish increased their playoff chances by 10.2% with a blowout win over Louisville on Saturday and now have the ninth-best chance of making the field (46.1%). They need to hang in there while looking like a playoff team against the No. 66 seed in the country’s remaining schedule.

Boise State Broncos: Just because a Group 5 team wasn’t projected to be in the committee’s top 12 doesn’t mean it won’t be. The Broncos face UNLV on Oct. 25 and host Oregon State in the regular-season finale, two opponents that can change their playoff path.

The next four out

Missouri Tigers: The Tigers were held back a bit because they didn’t look impressive (they needed two overtimes to beat Vanderbilt and sneaked past Boston College at home) and they’ve been playing schedule No. 120 up to this point.

Hurricanes in the state of Iowa: The undefeated Cyclones’ win at Iowa is the highlight of their resume, and they just added a conference road win at Houston. However, the month of November will define their season, with trips to Kansas and Utah and a regular season finale against K-State.

Indiana Hoosiers: The undefeated Hoosiers beat expected teams in convincing fashion. ESPN Research gives IU at least a 50% chance of winning each of its remaining games, excluding the trip to Ohio State on Nov. 23.

USC Trojan: The Trojans got a bit of a scare at home from Wisconsin before pulling away 38-21. ESPN Research gives USC at least a 50% chance of winning each of its remaining games, excluding the rivalry game against Notre Dame. This could be a crucial direct result that determines which team wins the overall.

Fallen out of the bubble: Utah, Illinois, Louisville, LSU

Group of 5 Power Rankings

1. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West)

Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Washington State, 45-24

Why they are here: The Broncos got a convincing win against a former Pac-12 team, they had a good loss at Oregon, and they have a Heisman contender in running back Ashton Jeanty who leads the country in rushing yards (845) and yards per carry (10.3).

2. UNLV Rebels (Mountain West)

Best win: September 13 in Kansas, September 23-20

Why they are here: The quarterback change hasn’t slowed the Rebels down. Instead, their chances of making the playoffs increased by 15% after a convincing win against Fresno State. Road wins against Kansas and Houston, who are a combined 2-8, have lost some of their luster.

3. James Madison Dukes (Sun Belt)

Best win: Sept. 21 at North Carolina, 70-50

Why they are here: The Dukes made headlines when they lost 70 points to the Tar Heels and then beat Ball State by 63 points. JMU is running but currently has no ranked opponents scheduled.

4. Navy Midshipmen (American Athletic)

Best win: Sept. 21 vs. Memphis, 56-44

Why they are here: The win against Memphis trumps Army’s best win over 1-4 Temple, and the Midshipmen have a quarterback who leads the nation in overall QBR as Blake Horvath has a 95.8 rating.

5. Army Black Knights (American Athletic)

Best win: Sept. 26 at Temple, 42-14

Why they are here: Army’s FBS opponents are 4-11 overall, none are ranked and none are a Power 4 conference team. They also earned an FCS win over Lehigh of the Patriot League. Still, ESPN Research gives Army the second-best chance of winning the AAC at 22.5% (behind two-loss Tulane, which could also play its way back into the bubble watch).