While the extreme right is celebrating electoral success in Austria, this much is clear. Power must be denied | Farid Hafez

FIn recent years, the right-wing Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) has dominated opinion polls, overtaking historically established parties such as the People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ). After devastating floods devastated eastern Austria in early September, it looked as if the FPÖ would once again face competition from the ruling ÖVP, which presented itself as the chief manager in dealing with the floods, and the Greens appeared primed for a resurgence. However, recent national elections have produced results that even the most pessimistic observers might not have expected.

In a historic first, the FPÖ under the leadership of Herbert Kickl won the National Council elections with 28.8% of the vote, surpassing the previous record set by his mentor Jörg Haider in 1999. This is the first time in Austria’s post-war history that a party originally founded by ex-Nazis for ex-Nazis, won the national parliamentary election. Kickl, the party’s leader and a hardline ideologue with a family history tied to Nazism, vowed to become Austria’s party People’s Chancellor (People’s Chancellor), a term that has its roots in Nazi rhetoric. By openly championing what he calls “remigration”—the idea of ​​pressuring people of color to return to their supposed homelands—he presents the ideology of the new right in more pleasing language. In addition, Kickl cleverly mobilized growing public discontent arising from the management of the pandemic and rising inflation rates to appeal to disaffected voters.

Kickl’s rhetoric is particularly popular in rural areas, where the traditionally dominant ÖVP has suffered significant losses. Around 443,000 of the 1.4 million votes for the FPÖ came from the ÖVP alone. In contrast, urban centers continue to support the SPÖ, which has managed to gain a foothold and even expand in these regions. The FPÖ tried to appeal to voters of Turkish origin by portraying them as well-integrated compared to more recent immigrants from Syria, Afghanistan and Chechnya. However, this strategy was ineffective, as election results in districts with large Muslim populations show.

The rise of the FPÖ reflects a broader trend of disillusionment with traditional political parties across Europe. In 1945, the centrist ÖVP and SPÖ together achieved an impressive 94.4% of the vote; Today their combined share has fallen to just 47.4%. Meanwhile, other emerging parties are struggling to gain ground, with only the Liberals and Greens making small gains.

What does this unprecedented victory mean for Austria’s political future? While the FPÖ has expanded its presence in parliament and is expected to win 56 of 183 seats, the prospects for forming a coalition remain bleak. Acting Chancellor Karl Nehammer has ruled out a partnership with Kickl, even though the FPÖ has many ideological similarities with the ÖVP, particularly on immigration and economic policy. The FPÖ could only form a coalition with the ÖVP if its current leader resigns. Likewise, any coalition with the SPÖ would require left-wing party leader Andreas Babler to step down in favor of the more right-wing Hans Peter Doskozil. Both scenarios seem extremely unlikely.

In this situation, the second strongest party, the ÖVP, has the potential to negotiate alliances that could push the FPÖ into the background. If the ÖVP were to deal with the SPÖ, possibly with the New Austrian and Liberal Forum (NEOS) as a third party, it could not only become head of government with its own chancellor at the helm; Due to its numerical strength (29%) compared to the SPÖ (21%) and the NEOS (9%), it could also expand its influence on other important ministries.

The role of Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen, a former leader of the Green Party, further increases the complexity. Because of his dislike for Kickl, he is unlikely to adhere to the usual expectation that the Federal President invites the strongest party to coalition negotiations, a tradition that is not enshrined in law but has long been practiced. He announced on X that he would do everything in his power to preserve liberal democratic values, signaling a potential obstacle to the FPÖ’s ambitions to take power.

Ultimately, however, the likely moves will depend on the ÖVP, which has in the past adopted many of the FPÖ’s talking points and, like many traditional right-wing parties in Europe, has turned to a generally more authoritarian political style. Since 2013, in its various coalitions – with the SPÖ (until 2017), the FPÖ (until 2019) and later the Greens (until 2024) – it has committed itself to anti-Muslim policies, introduced hijab bans, closed mosques and criminalized the Muslim religion . – show.

The general authoritarian wave also includes restrictions on freedom of expression, restrictions on media powers and increasing surveillance and securitization. As potential coalition partners weigh their options, they must strive to reach agreements that resist the populist tide that has swept across Austria. The FPÖ’s absence from power is only the first formal step in this direction.

• Farid Hafez is an assistant professor of international relations at William and Mary University, Virginia, and a senior researcher at the Bridge Initiative at Georgetown University. Together with Reinhard Heinisch he is the author of Politicizing Islam in Austria: the Far-Right Impact in the Twenty-First Century