Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros Game 1 Odds, Tips and Predictions

The Detroit Tigers And Houston Astros Meet on Tuesday in a best-of-3 AL Wild Card series. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is scheduled for 2:32 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s 24/7 MLB odds Tigers vs. Astros Opportunities and meet our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular season series: Astros won 4-2

The Tigers (86-76) won 10 of 13 games to close the regular season – two losses – after already securing a Wild Card berth. Detroit’s 3.61 ERA is the fourth lowest in the MLB, but with 4.21 runs per game (RPG), Detroit ranks 19th and last among playoff teams.

The Astros (88-73) started the season with the third-smallest odds to win the World Series at +800, but after a somewhat disappointing year they now have the fifth-smallest odds (+900 at BetMGM Sportsbook). Houston managed to turn its season around after a 7-19 start, but its 4.60 RPG (10th in the MLB) is a disappointment after last year’s 5.09 average, which was 5th. Place in the majors corresponds.

Tigers at Astros projected starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs LHP Framber Valdez

Skubal made 31 starts this season, going 18-4 with an AL-best 2.39 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 192 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in a 2-1 home win over the Tampa Bay Rays on September 24th
• 2024 road stats: 8-3, 2.86 ERA (88 IP, 28 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 in 15 starts
• 2024 vs. Astros: 1-1, 4.26 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 2 starts
• Career vs. Astros: 1-1, 3.16 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 4 starts

Valdez made 28 starts this season and went 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 176 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 4-3 home win over the Seattle Mariners on September 24th
• 2024 home stats: 9-2, 2.53 ERA (96 IP, 27 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 15 starts
• 2024 vs. Tigers: 1-0, 1 road start (May 10), 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5-2 win
• Career vs. Tigers: 2-2, 2.49 ERA (47 IP, 13 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 8 appearances (7 starts)

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Tigers at Astros odds

Powered by BetMGM Sportsbook; Visit the USA TODAY sports scores and sports betting hub for a complete list of MLB odds. The lines were last updated on Monday at 11:32 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Tigers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
• Run Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Tiger +1.5 (-200) | Astros -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Tigers at Astros tips and predictions

forecast

Tigers 3, Astros 2

Money line

It’s hard to let that fade TIGER (+125) with Skubal on the mound – especially at plus money. Detroit used a 15-3 run from September 7-27 to clinch a Wild Card berth, allowing three or fewer runs in 12 of the 18 games.

Skubal finished the regular season as the -5,000 favorite (bet $5,000 to win $100) and took home the AL Cy Young Award. He has allowed 2 or fewer ERs in 10 of 12 starts since the All-Star break and has won 6 straight decisions in his last 9 starts.

Valdez went 0-3 in three playoff starts last year – all at home – and allowed a total of 12 ERs in 12 IPs. While he went 3-0 in four starts when the Astros won the 2022 World Series, his most recent postseason data is a bit concerning.

It’s worth a shot to get the red-hot Tigers at plus money with the AL Cy Young favorite. Tigers manager AJ Hinch – who was fired by the Astros in 2020 – has a good chance of getting revenge on Tuesday.

BET TIGER (+125).

Running Line/Against the Spread

Detroit +1.5 (-200) should be achieved, but the bid-ask difference is too high.

HAPPEN. Instead, bet the ML and/or the total.

Over/Under

The Tigers are 3-0 against the under in Skubal’s last three starts and are 1-0-1 against the under in Valdez’s last two starts. However, it is not recommended to bet -120 without even reaching the key number 7. Don’t play this variant unless you can get it for -108 or cheaper.

LEAN BELOW 6.5 (-120).

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