MLB Playoffs 2024: New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers prediction and NL Wild Card schedule

Mets vs Brewers Prediction

The Mets and Brewers played each other on the final weekend of the regular season and will have higher stakes in the NL Wild Card Round this week. Well, there was a lot at stake, regardless of the Mets needing a win in a rescheduled doubleheader against the Braves on Monday to clinch a playoff spot. The Brewers won a while ago when they ran away with the NL Central.

So Milwaukee was able to set things up the way they wanted, while the Mets had to postpone some things and play until the day before this series began. The berth celebrations were short and subdued, as it was all about business and getting to Milwaukee and getting a good night’s sleep.

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This is actually only the Mets’ second playoff appearance since 2016, and they haven’t won a playoff series since 2015, when they lost to the Royals in the World Series. The Brewers haven’t won a playoff series since 2018, so a series ends on either Wednesday or Thursday.

All games will be played in Milwaukee at American Family Field as they are the only division winner in the NL Wild Card Round.

Let’s look at this series, the likely pitching matchups and some bets.

Mets vs. Brewers NL Wild Card Schedule

Game 1: Tuesday, October 1, 5:30 p.m. ET (Severino vs. Peralta)

Game 2: Wednesday, October 2, 7:30 p.m. ET (Manaea vs. Civale)

Game 3: Thursday, October 3, 8:30 p.m. ET (Quintana vs. Montas) (if required)

(All pitching matchups are predicted by me until otherwise announced)

How to watch Mets vs. Brewers

Games 1 and 2 are on ESPN, Game 3 is on ESPN2

Mets vs. Brewers Series Odds

New York Mets +115 // Milwaukee Brewers -135

Over/Under 2.5 games: -105 // -115

Mets vs. Brewers NL Wild Card Preview

Normally being No. 6 would be a disadvantage, but I don’t think that’s the case for the Mets. The prize for No. 5 is the Padres, who had a similar record to the Brewers but feel significantly more dangerous. This is by no means to say that Milwaukee is a walk in the park, as the Brewers have an excellent offense and a very strong bullpen.

A large portion of Milwaukee’s offensive upside comes from drawn walks. Their 9.7% BB% was second only to the Yankees. They also ranked second with 217 stolen bases. Only the Nationals (223) had more and only the Reds (207) had more than 178. So the Brewers really used their speed and athleticism well on the basepaths and remained patient in the batter’s box.

As a pitching team, the Mets had the third-highest BB% at 9.6%, so that will be an extremely important part of this series. While the Mets bullpen had a K% of 27.8%, it also had the third-highest BB% at 10.7%. There are a few holes in the lineup where the Brewers are trading defense and speed for strong offense, so that will be something to watch. Milwaukee also lost Christian Yelich shortly after the All-Star break, and he was by far the team’s best hitter with a wRC+ of 153.

However, 20-year-old rookie Jackson Chourio improved to .322/.354/.514 with a .371 wOBA and a 139 wRC+ in the second half after getting off to a rough start early in the season. This is a confident, diverse and very strong cast, even if there are no household names.

The defensive part of the equation is extremely important. Other than Game 1 starter Freddy Peralta, who had 200 strikeouts, there was a lot of contact in the rest of the rotation. Peralta had an ERA of 3.68 with an xERA of 3.88 and a FIP of 4.16. Almost every starter had an ERA lower than FIP and xERA, a testament to Milwaukee’s defensive prowess. Aaron Civale had a 3.53 ERA with a 4.79 FIP in 14 starts and Tobias Myers had a 3.00 ERA with a 4.11 xERA and a 3.91 FIP in 138 innings.

All also allowed a slew of home runs, something the Mets will expect in this series. While the Mets didn’t steal many bags, they were one of six teams to hit 207 home runs and over 200 dingers. Francisco Lindor got 33 and would have been a very strong MVP candidate in a world without Shohei Ohtani. His 137 wRC+ led all Mets with at least 300 plate appearances, but Mark Vientos had a coming out party with a 133 wRC+ and impending free agent Pete Alonso contributed 34 bombs.

The X-factor in this series for the Mets could be Francisco Alvarez. The Mets had a 58-27 record when he started a game this season and a 65-35 record when he appeared. He missed almost two months due to injury and the Mets struggled greatly during that time.

Things haven’t always been pretty for New York on the pitching side, but that was in September when they led the league in fWAR with 5.6 and combined for a 3.05 ERA with a 2.87 FIP. David Peterson won’t be able to start this season, which is a shame since he was the leader in fWAR, but Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea will be among the listed starters and Luis Severino will likely get the ball in Game 1. He was great all the way.

Both bullpens performed at a top-five level in the final month of the season, but Milwaukee’s was significantly stronger. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched and we could get some close games so the replacements might decide things. That’s especially true with Milwaukee’s patience at the plate.

All in all, I don’t know that the Brewers should be -135 for the series price, but I’m not rushing to back the Mets either. I also place less value on the total over/unders in this series than I did in the two AL series.

A lean towards the Mets, but not something I would necessarily play before the series. On DraftKings, that value went from -140 to -135 by the time I was done.

Lean: Mets +115